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NFL 2004
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NFL Best Bets
- Updated every Wednesday by 3pm Pacific Time -
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Each week the person in charge of a feature is on the hook for giving out a 'best bet' selection -- these have proved to be very potent!
| Category |
2003 |
2002 |
2-Yr W% |
| Trends |
10-7 |
11-2 |
70% |
| DC/TO |
14-6 |
n/a |
70% |
| Turnover Column |
11-5 |
9-4 |
69% |
| Injury Report |
12-6 |
7-4 |
66% |
| Inside the 20 |
11-4 |
8-6 |
66% |
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Week 4: Drive Chart Dogs
Drive Chart stats were the very first game charting we did here at TwoMinuteWarning, starting back in 1997. For several years blindly backing the DC overlays was worth a fortune. Times change, and nowadays the key with this tool is to find underdogs picked as overlays: 4+ overlays since 1998 are 111-66 (63%)
There are a couple of big DC dogs this week, but the top choice appears to come from this game:
NY Giants at Green Bay
For a legend of our terminology, and an explanation of how we create the
following data, please see
The case for better numbers.
Drive Chart Stats
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
Punt |
T/O |
Pts |
| NYG |
5.5 |
32 |
2:42 |
18% |
15% |
46% |
3% |
21.3 |
| GB |
4.9 |
33 |
3:08 |
25% |
9% |
40% |
15% |
24.3 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
Punt |
T/O |
Pts |
| NYG |
5.1 |
28 |
2:32 |
20% |
5% |
37% |
28% |
18.8 |
| GB |
6.1 |
35 |
2:33 |
34% |
3% |
44% |
13% |
30.2 |
Projected Scores (Drive Charts)
| Team |
DC* |
NY Giants
Green Bay |
25
20 |
Analysis:
The Giants have been slightly better than average on offense so far this season (NFL league wide averages through the first three weeks are 18% TD, 13% FG, 46% Punt, 15% T/O, and 20.5 Drive Points per game), while the Packers rate as the #8 offensive team at this stage. Ah, but football's a game played on both sides of the ball, and on defense the Giants have been reasonably solid while the Packers, thanks to that foray to Indianapolis, are #30 in the league.
Hence it is not a big surprise that the simple DC projection (as opposed to the DC/TO...more on that another time) has questions about a line favoring Green Bay by a touchdown. Indeed, the overlay has the Giants winning outright.
There's a fair amount of pressure on Green Bay this week, but the Giants could really make a statement by playing well in this game.
Favor: New York Giants +7
Also see:
Week One Best Bet Freebie: Trends
Week Two Best Bet Freebie: Week That Was
Week Three Best Bet Freebie: Angles
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