Week 4: Bet Tracker
Our friends at SportsInsights.com track the wagers placed at several sportsbooks to compile percentage charts on which team/play in a matchup is getting the action.
A look at the TMW Bet Tracker feature shows a ton of numbers, updated every thirty minutes, on the way bettors are playing the upcoming games. The number of bets placed on a game is interesting info, but the key starting point for analysis is clearly the "Market Average" pie chart that shows the percentage of bets placed on each team.
The question becomes, how to use this data?
There are really two obvious positions to take:
- Steam Betting - back the teams getting the action in the thinking that the line was 'off' initially or that there's something to the game that smart money knows about. Note: with this approach be careful here not to back the team after the line has already moved on them
- Contrarian Betting - back the teams that are not getting bet in the thinking that the linemakers are smart and either laying a trap for the public, happy to take a stand on the game, as they wouldn't willingly accept exposure on a matchup if they didn't feel they had the "right side."
We only have one past season of the SportsInsights stats to go off, and those represent the final betting splits. Last year saw the favorites, and the public "square" bettor, doing very well, which is not the norm in the NFL. Which is to say that our one year may not in itself be representative of longer patterns.
Still the results suggested the contrarian approach on very one-sided action could be profitable:
FULL REGULAR SEASON RECORDS:
Spread Betting %'s W-L Records:
80%+ = 4-7
70-79% = 42-35
60-69% = 43-29
51-59% = 39-48
All = 128-119
Totals Betting %'s W-L Records:
80%+ = 9-14
70-79% = 41-38
60-69% = 47-40
51-59% = 26-36
All = 123-128
So between the totals and the spread the plays with 80%+ of the bets went just 13-21 (38%) or 62% as a bet against.
This year we are focusing on midweek betting numbers in the thinking that the late action will balance out the plays often and leave you with few of the super high splits. For Wednesday bet tracking data showing teams with less than 20% of the bets, they have been 9-6.
At this time (Wednesday morning) there are three teams with less than 20% of the bets:
18% Buffalo -1
17% Carolina -7.5
14% Washington +3
Near qualifiers at this time include Detroit +5.5 (21%), New England +6 (21%), Oakland +3 (21%).
Analysis: without long term data this is based on belief rather than proven predictive merit, yet the most extreme game of the week features a home underdog off a win facing a visiting favorite off a loss, and the home dog is not getting the action! Washington played poorly the first two weeks, but that was without star RB Clinton Portis who returned in week three and led the team to victory. The best bet freebie this week is Washington +3
See the Bet Tracker page for the latest betting splits.
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