NFL Best Bets
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Each week the person in charge of a feature is on the hook for giving out a 'best bet' selection -- these have proved to be very potent!
| Category |
2003 |
2002 |
2-Yr W% |
| Trends |
10-7 |
11-2 |
70% |
| DC/TO |
14-6 |
n/a |
70% |
| Turnover Column |
11-5 |
9-4 |
69% |
| Injury Report |
12-6 |
7-4 |
66% |
| Inside the 20 |
11-4 |
8-6 |
66% |
2004 Best Bet Records
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Week 6: "Square Money"
This new feature tracks 'public' betting trends to try and find the real spread value in matchups, operating under the premise that 'smart money' wins out in the long term over 'square money' picks.
A number of places track picks and you can look at these sources. One good source for the "common joe" view on things is the Yahoo pro football pick'em pool games. There are four different versions:
1) straight-up no confidence weight
2) spread
3) straight-up with confidence
4) spread with confidence
You can't find out through them who is taking what for this week but you can see previous Pick Distributions.
Public 'consensus' on spread picks through week 5
| Category |
50 - 59% |
60 - 64% |
65 - 69% |
70 - 74% |
75% + up |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
4 - 9 |
5 - 6 |
4 - 8 |
0 - 0 |
1 - 1 |
14 - 24 |
| HomeDogs |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
| AwayFavs |
1 - 2 |
1 - 2 |
2 - 0 |
4 - 2 |
6 - 3 |
14 - 9 |
| AwayDogs |
4 - 2 |
0 - 1 |
0 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
5 - 5 |
|
| Favorites |
5 - 11 |
6 - 8 |
6 - 8 |
4 - 2 |
7 - 4 |
28 - 33 |
| Underdogs |
4 - 2 |
0 - 1 |
0 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
5 - 5 |
| Home Teams |
4 - 9 |
5 - 6 |
4 - 8 |
0 - 0 |
1 - 1 |
14 - 24 |
| Away Teams |
5 - 4 |
1 - 3 |
2 - 2 |
5 - 2 |
6 - 3 |
19 - 14 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
9 - 13 |
6 - 9 |
6 - 10 |
5 - 2 |
7 - 4 |
33 - 38 |
| WIN % |
41 % |
40 % |
38 % |
71 % |
64 % |
46 % |
| Spread Range |
7.5+ points |
3.5 to 7 |
0 to 3 |
| Favorites |
5 - 5 |
14 - 16 |
9 - 12 |
| Underdogs |
0 - 1 |
2 - 1 |
3 - 3 |
The public likes favorites. Loves them. They have picked them to beat the spread 86% of the time. This year so far the public is getting lucky. 13-6 with the games where 70% or more take the same side. This go-against zone will be a money maker by year end. Go against them on every game and you'd be hitting 53.5% and I expect that number to get higher.
Minnesota at New Orleans (+3.5)
| Team |
Week 3 |
WL |
Week 4 |
WL |
Week 5 |
WL |
| Minnesota |
62 % |
L |
0 % |
bye |
71 % |
W |
| New Orleans |
55 % |
W |
74 % |
L |
68 % |
L |
PUBLIC LOVE:
Square money on Minnesota (3-1) over New Orleans (2-3). Public loves high scoring teams with stars. Minnesota is both. New Orleans lost badly against the spread last week for second time running. Public writes them off as useless underachievers. All the talk last week about Culpepper 5 TD's gets public jazzed for this.
Smart Money: New Orleans +3.5
Also see:
Week One Best Bet Freebie: Trends
Week Two Best Bet Freebie: Week That Was
Week Three Best Bet Freebie: Angles
Week Four Best Bet Freebie: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five Best Bet Freebie: Inside the 20
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