Week 6: Turnovers
Turnover Difference has been a mainstay of TMW contrarian handicapping since day one. See the Turnover Column each week for the update on all games.
For those unfamiliar with our turnover research, you may want to review the following prior articles for background on this theory:
Nets shown below reflect Away number minus Home number.
| Away |
Line |
Home |
Net
INT |
Net
FUM |
Net
T/O |
INT
Pick |
FUM
Pick |
T/O
Pick |
| Cincinnati |
+6 |
Tampa Bay |
9 |
-1 |
8 |
TB |
- |
TB |
Analysis: With each team having played a bye the turnover totals show that Cincinnati has been getting a +2 net turnover edge per game over Tampa Bay so far. This is a huge help. To put it in perspective a twenty year study shows the following win% for a team with a net turnover edge in the specific game:
T/O Edge
1
2
3
4
5+
|
Win%
67%
81%
88%
94%
95%
|
ATS%
65%
79%
86%
89%
92%
|
So turnovers alone can basically explain the difference in records of these two teams. The question is, will the turnovers continue to favor Cincinnati over Tampa Bay? The area to improve for the Buccaneers has been interceptions and fortunately their new QB Bruce Gradkowski looked good in his debut, throwing 2 touchdowns, but no interceptions on the road in the loud New Orleans dome.
There's reason to think then that for Tampa Bay throwing turnovers may be less of an issue going forward. Carson Palmer for Cincinnati has averaged 1.0 Interceptions thrown per game, which isn't bad but suggests the turnovers are much more up for grabs in this game. If Tampa's defense returns to its previously high points then this game should definitely be close.
The best bet freebie this week is Tampa Bay +6
STAFF PICKS hit 75% last week!
Marking the fourth win in the first five weeks, the six staff analysts have combined to hit better than 61% together with all of their picks. Meanwhile the Best Bets are hitting 63% on the season! To learn more about TMW's spread beating stars, check out the Staff Picks page.
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