NFL Best Bet Picks

Each week the person in charge of a subscriber feature can submit a 'best bet' selection. These have proved to be very potent in some cases since the introduction of this concept five years ago, and we will present a best bet freebie on this page each week.

"Contrarian Consensus"

There are two primary 'contrarian' indicators at TMW: Turnover Difference and "Contrarian Bridgejumping" (or as it is now know CSM for cumulative spread margin). While both of these are potent handicapping tools, when they each point to the same team in a game you have what we refer to as a contrarian consensus play.

Turnover Difference

Contrarian Bridgejumping

Analysis: New Orleans is winless (some might say hopeless) but turnovers have a lot to do with the record so far. In addition they have been getting pummeled against the spread, losing by over eighteen spread points a game! Getting the nod from both contrarian indicators suggests that, along with the classic 'bet winless teams from week five on' angle, there may be reason to think this game will be close.

Favor: New Orleans +7

Wondering what the hype is all about? Check out:
What the press says about TwoMinuteWarning
Comparing NFL Handicapping Services

Feature	2002-2006	5-Yr W%
Inside the 20	45-28	62%
Trends	52-36	59%
DC/TO	44-33	57%
Injury Report	45-34	57%
Full Story	43-33	57%
Turnovers	39-29	57%
Drive Charts	42-36	54%
CSM	23-20	53%
Bet Tracker	16-14	53%
Regressor	23-21	52%
Last 5 UPM	30-32	48%

Subscribers get access to the Best Bet selections of all the features every week. Just one of many subscriber benefits.

To learn more about TMW's high end content, check out reasons to subscribe.

2007 Season Archive
Week One: CSM
Week Two: Trends
Week Three: Bet Tracker
Week Four: UPM
Week Five: DC/TO

Samples from past seasons can be seen via clicking on the links below:

2006 Season Archive
Week One: Angles
Week Two: Trends
Week Three: Tim's Smorgasboard
Week Four: Bet Tracker
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Turnovers
Week Seven: Falcon PP's
Week Eight: Last 5 UPM
Week Nine: Drive Stats
Week Ten: DC/TO
Week Eleven: CSM
Week Twelve: Play-by-Play
Week Thirteen: UPM
Week Fourteen: Coach Stats
Week Fifteen: Regressor
Week Sixteen: Game Pages
Week Seventeen: TMW PP's

2005 Season Archive
Week One: CSM
Week Two: Angles
Week Three: Week That Was
Week Four: Stats Force
Week Five: DC/TO
Week Six: Inside the 20
Week Seven: Play by Play
Week Eight: UPM
Week Nine: Trends
Week Ten: Turnovers
Week Eleven: Last 5 Weeks UPM
Week Twelve: Drive Charts
Week Thirteen: Bet Tracker
Week Fourteen: Money-Line
Week Fifteen: Injury Report
Week Sixteen: Red Zone Totals
Week Seventeen: Regressor

2004 Season Archive
Week One: Trends
Week Two: Week That Was
Week Three: Angles
Week Four: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Square Money
Week Seven: DC/TO
Week Eight: Turnover Difference
Week Nine: CSM
Week Ten: Stats Force
Week Eleven: UPM
Week Twelve: O/U Regressor
Week Thirteen: Regressor
Week Fourteen: Injury Report
Week Fifteen: Play-By-Play Ratings
Week Sixteen: Player/Team Connection
Week Seventeen: Last 5 UPM