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NFL 2004
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NFL Best Bets
- Updated every Wednesday by 3pm Pacific Time -
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Each week the person in charge of a feature is on the hook for giving out a 'best bet' selection -- these have proved to be very potent!
| Category |
2003 |
2002 |
2-Yr W% |
| Trends |
10-7 |
11-2 |
70% |
| DC/TO |
14-6 |
n/a |
70% |
| Turnover Column |
11-5 |
9-4 |
69% |
| Injury Report |
12-6 |
7-4 |
66% |
| Inside the 20 |
11-4 |
8-6 |
66% |
2004 Best Bet Records
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Week 7: DC/TO
While the straight Drive Chart overlays have been very powerful through the years, by incorporating "Turnover Difference" theory into the projection, the DC/TO predictor has proven to be an excellent addition to our handicapping tools. And when it comes to best bets, the DC/TO is now the reigning champion indicator. The 6-0 record this season combined with the 14-6 in its debut year adds up to a 20-6 lifetime record...
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
Punt |
T/O |
Pts |
| SEA |
5.1 |
28 |
2:29 |
21% |
15% |
52% |
8% |
23.3 |
| ARI |
4.6 |
24 |
2:39 |
16% |
10% |
53% |
14% |
17.3 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
Punt |
T/O |
Pts |
| SEA |
4.7 |
25 |
2:27 |
13% |
11% |
46% |
25% |
15.3 |
| ARI |
5.3 |
30 |
2:36 |
8% |
21% |
42% |
25% |
15.2 |
Projected Scores (Drive Charts)
| Team |
DC* |
DCTO* |
Seattle
Arizona |
18
15 |
3
3 |
Analysis:
As the creator of the DC/TO feature, I have a definite vested interest in making sure it performs up to my lofty expectations, and as such I spend more than a little time digging around in the numbers to understand them better. One of the things I do like to review beyond the simple "who does it pick and by how much?" is the contrast between the straight DC projection and the DC/TO one. There's some evidence to suggest, and it certainly falls in line with my conceptual thinking, that when the DC/TO prediction augments an already existing preference for a team we have a game worth watching.
Such is the case this week in the Seattle at Arizona matchup. The straight DC numbers show the Cardinals as a four point overlay, given the hefty touchdown line, but the DC/TO makes the game even closer and shifts the Cards up to a seven point overlay. In other words, the Cardinals are an overlay even though they have a lesser turnover mark so far this season, but if turnovers play out more evenly this week, they figure to be an even better choice.
Defensively you can see that both teams have been fairly equivalent in terms of points allowed per drive, and while the Seahawks have been more efficient on offense, they've been helped by a below league average turnover rate.
Take that with the power of home underdogs in the NFL over the years, the never-let-up attitude of new coach Dennis Green, and we have the makings of a good wager.
Favor: Arizona +7
Also see:
Week One Best Bet Freebie: Trends
Week Two Best Bet Freebie: Week That Was
Week Three Best Bet Freebie: Angles
Week Four Best Bet Freebie: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five Best Bet Freebie: Inside the 20
Week Six Best Bet Freebie: Square Money
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