Week 7: Falcon PP's
The Falcon Past Performances were designed to emulate horse racing handicapping tools, including a one number game rating for each team. The full list of games can be seen on the Falcon PP's page each week.
Maybe you're a good handicapper already. You make some money. Maybe you shop for lines and make a bit more. What if you could improve your base win percentage though, wouldn't that be worth doing? That's our goal -- to make you a better handicapper. Our PP's have performance figures that adjust for the quality of opponent, location and other factors to provide a one-number rating in a given game, ala a horse racing speed rating.
Play the ponies? I do.
Heard of Andy Beyer? He's only the demigod of horse racing speed figures. Followed by Len Ragozin and a string of imitators.
One of Andy's famous quotes is that Speed Figures are for horse race predictions "the truth, the way, and the light."
Another famous quote is that "The race doesn't always go to the swiftest, or the fight to
the strongest, but that's the way to bet!"
My goal is simple: create "NFL Speed Figures."
I want one number that tells me how well a team played in a game. I want PP's (Past Performances) for NFL teams that have the same structure as horse racing PP's you'd find in a Daily Racing Form. I want to use the same lingo and theories of horseplayers: new top, bounce, course specialist, bad trip. I am convinced the road to riches follows along a similar path in football that it does with horses.
Falcon PP's: Green Bay at Miami (-4.5 )
| Week |
Away |
Current
Pwr |
Home |
Current
Pwr |
Away
2Win |
Home
2Win |
| 7 |
GB |
89.1 |
MIA |
95.1 |
94 |
91 |
The '2Win' ratings show the figure a team needs to achieve
in order to cover against the posted spread for the game.
Green Bay
| Week |
Opp |
Line |
For |
Agn |
TeamPwr |
Opp.Pwr |
Opp.Fig |
TeamFig |
| 5 |
STL |
+3 |
20 |
23 |
88.0 |
102.5 |
94 |
96 |
| 4 |
@PHI |
+10.5 |
9 |
31 |
91.0 |
107.4 |
110 |
88 |
| 3 |
@DET |
+6.5 |
31 |
24 |
91.0 |
88.3 |
81 |
98 |
| 2 |
NO |
+2 |
27 |
34 |
91.0 |
109.3 |
101 |
99 |
| 1 |
CHI |
+3.5 |
0 |
26 |
91.0 |
122.6 |
120 |
93 |
|
+5.1 |
17 |
28 |
90.4 |
106.0 |
101 |
95 |
Away Ave. Fig = 93
Home Ave. Fig = 96
Miami
| Week |
Opp |
Line |
For |
Agn |
TeamPwr |
Opp.Pwr |
Opp.Fig |
TeamFig |
| 6 |
@NYJ |
+2.5 |
17 |
20 |
94.8 |
89.9 |
94 |
89 |
| 5 |
@NE |
+10 |
10 |
20 |
97.3 |
108.5 |
104 |
101 |
| 4 |
@HOU |
-3.5 |
15 |
17 |
96.2 |
76.5 |
95 |
77 |
| 3 |
TEN |
-11 |
13 |
10 |
96.2 |
82.9 |
96 |
82 |
| 2 |
BUF |
-7 |
6 |
16 |
96.2 |
99.2 |
109 |
86 |
| 1 |
@PIT |
+1.5 |
17 |
28 |
96.2 |
96.8 |
104 |
88 |
|
-1.3 |
13 |
19 |
96.2 |
92.3 |
100 |
87 |
Away Ave. Fig = 89
Home Ave. Fig = 84
Several things to notice here:
- Green Bay has better average Figs but is the underdog
- Green Bay has played a tougher caliber of opponent (see Opp.Pwr)
- GB's away fig average is right around their 2win number
- Miami's home fig average is seven points below the 2win number
Another approach to use is discussed on the TMW Message Boards:
Count how many times a team has hit the 2win number, and also how many times today's opponent has allowed a Fig that high. This game Green Bay has hit their 94 "2win" in 3 of 5 games, but Miami has allowed every opponent so far to get a 94+ Fig. So Green Bay gets 9 "2win" credits combined.
Miami has only hit their "2win" of 91 in 1 of 6 games, while Green Bay has allowed 91+ in 4 of 5. So Miami gets 5 "2win" credits combined. Still that means Green Bay has a 9-5 edge in "2win" data.
The best bet freebie this week is Green Bay +4.5
STAFF PICKS = Spread Picks, Best Bets, Summary Sheet & More!
Not only does the staff picks include the selections of six analysts, three of whom are hitting 67%+ on the year, but it also includes the full best bets for all the tools (currently over 60% on the season) and a nifty summary sheet for help with your own handicapping. To learn more about, check out the Staff Picks page.
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