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NFL 2004
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NFL Best Bets
- Updated every Wednesday by 3pm Pacific Time -
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Weekly Best Bets
Each week the person in charge of a feature can submit a 'best bet' selection -- these have proved to be very potent!
| Feature |
2004 |
2002-03 |
02/03 W% |
| Trends |
5-2 |
21-9 |
70% |
| DC/TO |
7-0 |
14-6 |
70% |
| Turnover Column |
3-3 |
20-9 |
69% |
| Injury Report |
5-1 |
19-10 |
66% |
| Inside the 20 |
3-0 |
19-10 |
66% |
| DC |
3-2 |
17-10 |
63% |
| Full Story |
5-2 |
11-7 |
61% |
| CSM |
3-1 |
8-6 |
57% |
| PBP |
2-1 |
13-12 |
54% |
| UPM |
6-1 |
15-16 |
48% |
| Last Five Upm |
1-0 |
11-14 |
44% |
| Angles |
4-2 |
5-11 |
31% |
| O/U Regressor |
1-0 |
New |
n/a |
| Stats Force |
1-0 |
New |
n/a |
| Square Money |
3-2 |
New |
n/a |
| Regressor |
1-3 |
New |
n/a |
| Gameplan |
0-1 |
New |
n/a |
| Week That Was |
0-3 |
New |
n/a |
|
Week 8: Turnover Difference
If you want a method that has demonstrated success for 20+ years, continuing to work from one era to the next, then Turnover Difference could be your best bet. Our longest running feature if you will, the turnover story should not be ignored...
Detroit at Dallas (-3)
| Away |
Line |
Home |
Net
INT |
Net
FUM |
Net
T/O |
INT
Pick |
FUM
Pick |
T/O
Pick |
| Detroit |
-3 |
Dallas |
3 |
12 |
15 |
- |
DAL |
DAL |
| Team |
Def. Int |
Def. Fum |
Off. Int |
Off. Fum |
Net T/O |
| Detroit |
5 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
+10 |
| Dallas |
3 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
-5 |
Analysis:
This season the Detroit Lions have made a remarkable turnaround from their recent history, particularly in their spectacular road performance. A look at the turnover data shows that they have either
- been incredibly skillful, well coached and disciplined, buying into the Mariucci schemes and executing brilliantly, to land 14 takeaways to just 4 giveaways, or
- have been exceedingly lucky
Turnover Difference theory basically says we should believe option 2. Moreover, while interception numbers are arguably a somewhat more stable factor and thus predict future turnover efforts slightly better, past fumble history has little bearing on upcoming fumble lieklihoods. Consequently the best Turnover situation is when you have a team that qualifies as a 'full t/o' picks as well as a 'fumble pick' but with no opinion expressed by the interception department...
While turnovers have been a happy story in Detroit, they have been glum news in Dallas, where Parcells has no doubt raised his voice on more than one occasion to emphasize to his players the importance of holding onto the football.
Can you really handicap an NFL game knowing nothing more than the number of mishaps and blunders? In some cases, yes you can.
Favor: Dallas -3
Also see:
Week One Best Bet Freebie: Trends
Week Two Best Bet Freebie: Week That Was
Week Three Best Bet Freebie: Angles
Week Four Best Bet Freebie: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five Best Bet Freebie: Inside the 20
Week Six Best Bet Freebie: Square Money
Week Seven Best Bet Freebie: DC/TO
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