Hot Pages
Subscription Info
Full Story Engine
DC/TO Predictor
Evaluating Injuries
Home Field Advantage studies
Picks W-L Records

NFL Predictions

If you are a subscriber: Login Here

$99 NFL 2004 Shouldn't you consider subscribing? Ninety-nine bucks for an entire season gets you fantastic picks ultimate matchup analysis killer handicapping tools the best research bar none

Weekly Best Bets Each week the person in charge of a feature can submit a 'best bet' selection -- these have proved to be very potent! Feature 2004 2002-03 02/03 W% Trends 6-2 21-9 70% DC/TO 7-1 14-6 70% Turnover Column 4-3 20-9 69% Injury Report 6-1 19-10 66% Inside the 20 3-1 19-10 66% DC 3-3 17-10 63% Full Story 5-3 11-7 61% CSM 4-1 8-6 57% PBP 3-1 13-12 54% UPM 6-2 15-16 48% Last Five Upm 1-1 11-14 44% Angles 4-3 5-11 31% O/U Regressor 1-1 New n/a Stats Force 1-1 New n/a Square Money 3-3 New n/a Regressor 2-3 New n/a Gameplan 0-1 New n/a Week That Was 0-3 New n/a

Week 9: CSM "Contrarian Bridgejumping" or 'Cumulative Spread Margin' (CSM) for the more technically apt description, is another long term winning contrarian strategy. By looking at the current net margin against the spread per game, and seeking matchups with wide discrepancies between the two teams, you can isolate sorry looking teams ready for a better than expected effort. Calculating the "Cumulative Spread Margin" stats involves totaling up how a team has performed in terms of net points against the lines on their games. For instance a team that won by eight while favored by three would accrue +5 points of CSM for the effort. On the other hand a team that lost by eight while favored by three would get a -11 CSM for that game. We will also be following each team's CSM versus the over/under lines (perhaps this should be Cumulative Totals Margin -- "CTM") which are calculated in a similar fashion: if a team plays a game in which the scoring by both teams was 48 points and the over/under line was 43 this would count as a +5 CTM game for both teams. The CTM (totals values) have not been shown to have corresponding predictiveness in the same fashion as the CSM (spread values) and are displayed without recommendation for their usage. We are carrying out additional research on the CTM numbers and do expect to find worthwhile applications for them.

Current CSM Stats Team CSM Spread CTM Totals Arizona 4.0 -1.8 Atlanta -1.9 -0.1 Baltimore 1.9 -3.7 Buffalo 0.6 -0.9 Carolina -5.7 -4.6 Chicago 2.3 -5.6 Cincinnati -3.1 1.7 Cleveland 3.2 3.7 Dallas -5.9 5.0 Denver -1.5 -3.4 Detroit 0.2 -0.2 Green Bay 0.7 5.4 Indianapolis 2.1 8.4 Jacksonville 0.8 -5.9 Kansas City 2.6 7.6 Miami -2.1 -3.1 Minnesota -1.5 0.9 New England 0.1 0.8 New Orleans -5.0 5.4 NY Giants 8.4 -3.9 NY Jets 3.1 0.4 Oakland -9.4 2.4 Philadelphia 4.8 -0.6 Pittsburgh 4.9 5.1 St. Louis -4.6 2.3 San Diego 11.3 3.9 San Francisco -4.0 1.6 Seattle 0.1 -3.0 Tampa Bay 0.0 -3.4 Tennessee -5.1 -2.1 Washington -4.9 -5.9 Houston 4.8 -2.1

Week Nine Key Matchup:

Analysis:
The Chargers have been an excellent bet in 2004 to this point. The spread W-L record is 6-1-1 and they have covered five straight games. In addition they have the highest CSM number in the league at +11.3 (which means they average beating the spread by over eleven points.) It's very rare to see a team with such a high CSM this far into the season.

The Saints are 2-5 against the spread and are -5.0 CSM to date. Thus the two teams when pitted one against the other have a giant 16.3 point CSM number. Every team has down days, and a non-conference matchup fresh from playing the Raiders, prior to the bye (and with New Orleans coming in off a bye) seems like the spot it will hit San Diego.

Favor: New Orleans +6

Also see:
Week One Best Bet Freebie: Trends
Week Two Best Bet Freebie: Week That Was
Week Three Best Bet Freebie: Angles
Week Four Best Bet Freebie: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five Best Bet Freebie: Inside the 20
Week Six Best Bet Freebie: Square Money
Week Seven Best Bet Freebie: DC/TO
Week Eight Best Bet Freebie: Turnover Difference