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NFL "DC+DC/TO" Point Spread Research
Nathan, the new manager of the Investor subscriber area is conducting major research projects in a number of handicapping approaches. Here he tackles the popular method pioneered by the original TMW founder who has since left for basketball pursuits...
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DC+DC/TO: logic and value = winner
While Scott is running the show around these parts nowadays, the site originally came about through Roland Beech, who has since moved on to the NBA world over at 82games.com. There are many different contributors to TMW through the seasons and each person seems to bring a slightly different perspective to making predictions.
While Scott loves Trends and simulation engines, Roland was the biggest advocate of using drive chart stats as well as quirky methods like Turnover Difference. So it didn't come as a shock when Roland came up with a system using drive charts + turnovers together.
For many years now there has been the usual DC drive chart projected scores and predictions, and a DC/TO (Turnover adjusted drive stats) prediction. Roland once wrote this little paragraph on what he is looking for with the two together:
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While we have a lot of tools to look at, and I do read pretty much every one each week, that's not to say I don't have my own personal biases as to what are the "heavyweights" of TwoMinuteWarning. One of my 'babies' is the DC/TO feature, which combines the drive stat projections with a dose of turnover difference theory. There's some nuance in how to use the DC/TO numbers, but one of the points I try to adhere to is that the best plays come about when the DC/TO predicted score extends an already existing advantage of the straight Drive Chart (DC) predicted score.
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The guy is never easy to understand, so let me rephrase it and throw in an example:
St. Louis at San Francisco (+4)
DC: SF 21-20
DC/TO: SF 26-17
In this hypothetical game, the 49ers are the DC pick since they are projected to win by one while getting four points as the underdog, which is a 5 point overlay. The DC/TO sees it as the 49ers winning by 9 which is picking the same side, but now a 13 point underlay or increasing the overlay.
The theory then is:
- play a team picked by both the DC and DC/TO to cover the spread when the DC/TO overlay is even higher
If you just follow that one liner you would have hit 54.5% over the last seven NFL seasons. I like to hold out with one more extra filter -- the DC projection must give the team picked as the overlay at least a 3.5 point advantage on the spread. This way you are playing a team that is more than a field goal better than the point spread suggests.
DC + DC/TO agree on a team with the DC/TO being a bigger overlay, 2001-2007
(Minimum 3.5 point overlay on the DC)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
0 - 0 |
5 - 4 |
20 - 11 |
6 - 8 |
9 - 5 |
40 - 28 |
| HomeDogs |
0 - 0 |
1 - 4 |
9 - 6 |
1 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
15 - 10 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 0 |
5 - 2 |
8 - 4 |
12 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
28 - 13 |
| AwayDogs |
0 - 0 |
5 - 1 |
17 - 10 |
2 - 4 |
8 - 8 |
32 - 23 |
| Favorites |
0 - 0 |
10 - 6 |
28 - 15 |
18 - 12 |
12 - 8 |
68 - 41 |
| Underdogs |
0 - 0 |
6 - 5 |
26 - 16 |
3 - 4 |
12 - 8 |
47 - 33 |
| Home Teams |
0 - 0 |
6 - 8 |
29 - 17 |
7 - 8 |
13 - 5 |
55 - 38 |
| Away Teams |
0 - 0 |
10 - 3 |
25 - 14 |
14 - 8 |
11 - 11 |
60 - 36 |
| ALL PICKS |
0 - 0 |
16 - 11 |
54 - 31 |
21 - 16 |
24 - 16 |
115 - 74 |
| WIN % |
0 % |
59 % |
64 % |
57 % |
60 % |
61 % |
| Spread Range |
7.5+ points |
3.5 to 7 |
0 to 3 pts |
| Favorites |
17 - 7 |
33 - 19 |
18 - 15 |
| Underdogs |
7 - 1 |
16 - 13 |
24 - 19 |
Nice huh! You've got a method hitting better than 60% with the extra special and unusual feature of letting you play lots of favorites including teams laying big points.
Let me write it out again and highlight it:
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Play a team picked by both the DC and DC/TO to cover the spread when the DC/TO overlay is even higher, and the DC overlay is at least 3.5 points.
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Looking at it year by year shows:
Season
2007:
2006:
2005:
2004:
2003:
2002:
2001:
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DC+DC/TO with conditions met
17-6
16-10
15-12
19-13
12-11
16-6
20-16
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Favorites
12-4
10-6
12-4
7-8
9-8
7-3
11-8
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I would take a repeat of that 2007 performance again this season!
You can find the info you need to make these bets in the
Investor Subscription for NFL 2008.
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