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Q: Every year there's a couple of hotshot college Quarterbacks get drafted in the first round, but it seems like for every Peyton Manning there are several Ryan Leafs...for a fantasy player how good an idea is it to grab a QB drafted in the first round?
A:
We'll look at this strictly from the standpoint of how QB's drafted in the first round do in their rookie season. Obviously if you play in a "keeper" league your outlook needs to be a little bit different:
Quarterbacks drafted in the first round from 1990-2001
| Yr |
Player |
Pick
# |
Team |
Wins
prior
Year |
Net
Wins
w/QB |
Yds |
TD |
INT |
Pts* |
| 90 |
Andre Ware |
7 |
DET |
7 |
-1 |
164 |
1 |
2 |
13 |
| 90 |
Jeff George |
1 |
IND |
8 |
-1 |
2152 |
16 |
13 |
139 |
| 91 |
Dan McGwire |
16 |
SEA |
9 |
-2 |
27 |
0 |
1 |
-2 |
| 91 |
Todd Marinovich |
24 |
OAK |
12 |
-3 |
243 |
3 |
0 |
26 |
| 92 |
David Klingler |
6 |
CIN |
3 |
+2 |
530 |
3 |
2 |
38 |
| 92 |
Tommy Maddox |
25 |
DEN |
12 |
-4 |
757 |
5 |
9 |
33 |
| 93 |
Drew Bledsoe |
1 |
NE |
2 |
+3 |
2494 |
15 |
15 |
148 |
| 93 |
Rick Mirer |
2 |
SEA |
2 |
+4 |
2833 |
12 |
17 |
191 |
| 94 |
Heath Shuler |
3 |
WAS |
4 |
-1 |
1658 |
10 |
12 |
97 |
| 94 |
Trent Dilfer |
6 |
TB |
5 |
+1 |
433 |
1 |
6 |
10 |
| 95 |
Steve McNair |
3 |
TEN |
2 |
+5 |
569 |
3 |
1 |
41 |
| 95 |
Kerry Collins |
5 |
CAR |
7 |
0 |
2717 |
14 |
19 |
160 |
| 97 |
Jim Druckenmiller |
26 |
SF |
12 |
+1 |
239 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
| 98 |
Peyton Manning |
1 |
IND |
3 |
0 |
3739 |
26 |
28 |
213 |
| 98 |
Ryan Leaf |
2 |
SD |
4 |
+1 |
1289 |
2 |
15 |
35 |
| 99 |
Tim Couch |
1 |
CLE |
2 |
0 |
2447 |
15 |
13 |
176 |
| 99 |
Donovan McNabb |
2 |
PHI |
3 |
+2 |
948 |
8 |
7 |
90 |
| 99 |
Akili Smith |
3 |
CIN |
3 |
+1 |
805 |
2 |
6 |
48 |
| 99 |
Cade McNown |
12 |
CHI |
4 |
+2 |
1465 |
8 |
10 |
91 |
| 99 |
Daunte Culpepper |
11 |
MIN |
15 |
-5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 00 |
Chad Pennington |
18 |
NYJ |
8 |
+1 |
67 |
1 |
0 |
7 |
| 01 |
Michael Vick |
1 |
ATL |
4 |
+3 |
1074 |
3 |
3 |
72 |
| Ave |
1st Round QB's |
8 |
All |
6 |
0 |
1218 |
7 |
9 |
74 |
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Notes: "Wins prior year" is how many wins the team had the season before, "Net Wins" represents the difference between the win total for the prior year and the QB's rookie season. PTS is based on the following formula (and includes rushing data): (passing yds/20)+(pass TD*4)-(INT*3)+(rushing yds/10)+(rushing TD*6)
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ANALYSIS:
So overall clearly it's pretty suspect to get excited about a Quarterback picked in the
first round for his rookie season -- many of them hardly see action (12/22 threw for less than
1,000 yards), and those that do aren't necessarily good performers
(who can forget Ryan Leaf's infamous 2 TD and 15 INT brilliance?).
Yet some of the "big hype" guys do make it happen in their first season, with Peyton Manning
certainly putting up numbers that most fantasy players would be pretty happy with.
We'll judge player performance according to the following standards:
SOLID = 100+ Points -- 6/22 or 27%
STAR = 150+ Points -- 4/22 or 18%
STUD = 200+ Points -- 1/22 or 5%
For more insight let's break it out by looking at where a QB was picked, and how good a team he was drafted by:
| Category |
Wins
prior
Year |
Net
Wins
w/QB |
Yds |
TD |
INT |
Pts* |
| Picks 1-3 |
3 |
1 |
1818 |
10 |
12 |
113 |
| Picks 4-10 |
6 |
1 |
961 |
5 |
7 |
55 |
| Picks 11-20 |
9 |
-1 |
390 |
2 |
3 |
24 |
| Picks 21+ |
12 |
-2 |
413 |
3 |
4 |
21 |
| Team had <4 wins |
3 |
2 |
1796 |
11 |
11 |
118 |
| Team had 4-6 wins |
4 |
1 |
1183 |
4 |
9 |
60 |
| Team had 7-9 wins |
8 |
-1 |
1025 |
6 |
7 |
63 |
| Team had 10+ wins |
13 |
-3 |
310 |
2 |
3 |
16 |
ANALYSIS:
There's a pretty direct correlation between where how early a QB was drafted in the first
round and how much playing time he sees. Likewise the worse a team was in the prior year
(and consequently the higher the draft pick they are likely to have), the better the chances
that a rookie QB will perform "respectably" for a fantasy player. Even so though, unless
you're happy with 1,818 yards and 10 TD's don't get focused on grabbing a top college Quarterback.
The five QB's drafted #1 overall averaged a healthy 2,381 yards, 15 TD's and 150 fantasy
points, which might make David Carr seem a little more interesting, given he'll get to start,
but our advice is to wait on going after the rookie QB's. Even in keeper leagues, there's a pretty high risk,
since arguably only 8 of the 22 QB's taken in the last eleven years would have been players
you would even consider wanting on your fantasy roster. In single season leagues think of it
this way: only one out of twenty-two 1st round QB picks has had a rookie season to get
excited about!
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