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TMW 2002

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1st Round
RB's

Q: If I take a Running Back drafted in this year's first round for my fantasy team, how likely is it that he'll be a stud?

A: This is a key concern for fantasy players, and there were two Running Backs drafted in the first round in the 2002 draft. William Green (#16 pick) goes to Cleveland and T.J.Duckett (#18) goes to Atlanta, where both players will likely have to share playing time. In this feature we'll look at this strictly from the standpoint of how RB's drafted in the first round do in their rookie season:

Running Backs drafted in the first round from 1990-2001

Yr	Player	Pick #	Team	Wins prior Year	Net Wins w/RB	Yds	TD	Pts*
90	Emmitt Smith	17	DAL	1	6	1165	11	183
90	Steve Broussard	20	ATL	3	2	614	4	85
90	Blair Thomas	2	NYJ	4	2	824	2	94
90	Darrell Thompson	19	GB	10	-4	265	1	33
90	Rodney Hampton	24	NYG	12	1	729	4	97
90	Dexter Carter	25	SF	14	0	677	1	74
91	Leonard Russell	14	NE	1	5	1040	4	128
91	Harvey Williams	21	KC	11	-1	594	3	77
91	Jarrod Bunch*	27	NYG	13	-5	8	0	1
92	Tommy Vardell*	9	CLE	6	1	497	0	50
92	Tony Smith	19	ATL	10	-4	343	2	46
92	Vaughn Dunbar	21	NO	11	1	627	3	81
93	Garrison Hearst	3	PHO	4	3	282	1	34
93	Jerome Bettis	10	LA	6	-1	1673	7	209
93	Robert Smith	21	MIN	11	-2	510	2	63
94	Marshall Faulk	2	IND	4	4	1804	12	252
94	William Floyd*	28	SF	10	3	450	6	81
94	Greg Hill	25	KC	11	-2	666	1	73
95	Ki-Jana Carter	1	CIN	3	4	0	0	0
95	James Stewart	19	JAX	4	0	715	3	90
95	Tyrone Wheatley	17	NYG	9	-4	272	3	45
95	Napoleon Kaufman	18	OAK	9	-1	552	1	61
95	Rashaan Salaam	21	CHI	9	0	1130	10	173
96	Lawrence Phillips	6	STL	7	-1	660	5	96
96	Eddie George	14	TEN	7	1	1550	8	203
96	Tim Biakabutuka	8	CAR	7	5	229	0	23
97	Warrick Dunn	12	TB	6	4	1440	7	186
97	Antowain Smith	23	BUF	10	-4	1017	8	150
98	Curtis Enis	5	CHI	4	0	517	0	52
98	John Avery	29	MIA	9	1	570	3	75
98	Robert Edwards	18	NE	10	-1	1446	12	217
98	Fred Taylor	9	JAX	11	0	1644	17	266
99	Edgerrin James	4	IND	3	10	2139	17	316
99	Ricky Williams	5	NO	6	-3	1056	2	118
2000	Thomas Jones	7	ARI	6	-3	581	2	70
2000	Ron Dayne	11	NYG	7	5	781	5	108
2000	Jamal Lewis	5	BAL	8	4	1660	6	202
2000	Shaun Alexander	19	SEA	9	-3	354	2	47
2000	Trung Canidate	31	STL	13	-3	10	0	1
2001	LaDainian Tomlinson	5	SD	1	+4	1603	10	219
2001	Deuce McAllister	23	NO	10	-3	257	2	37
2001	Micheal Bennett	27	MIN	11	-6	908	3	108
1990 to 2001	1st Round Picks (Average)	15	All	8	+1	806	4	108

*=fullback. Points is based on the following formula: (yards/10) + (TD's * 6).

ANALYSIS: There have been 42 Running Backs drafted in the first round from 1990 to 2001, many of them household names! We'll judge player performance according to the following standards:

SOLID = 100+ Points -- 16/42 or 38%
STAR = 150+ Points -- 12/42 or 28%
STUD = 200+ Points -- 8/42 or 19%

Interestingly, these numbers are a little above what we see with 1st Round Wide Receivers, where the solid/star/stud breakouts went 32%-22%-15% (with lower standards). Bottom line though is if you grab a first round back blindly you've got close to a 1 in 5 chance of landing a stud.

Limiting yourself to the Top-10 picks each year would weed it down to 15 players, with 6 studs (a healthy 40%) but 8 out of 15 (57%) couldn't even make it to "solid" -- kind of a boom or bust way of living! The mid-picks (#11 - #20) were reasonable, with 6/13 (46%) being solid, 4/13 (31%) making star or better, and 2/13 (15%) qualifying for Stud Status.

For the later picks, of the 14 players selected at #21 or higher, none have performed to our stud status and 12/15 (80%) have been fantasy busts in their first season.

What's all this mean for Green and Duckett? Well we are hesitant to make a forecast until the rosters of their respective squads are more clearly resolved, but our initial take is to stress caution and expect middle of the pack rookie year numbers.

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