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Q: If I take a Wide Receiver drafted in this year's first round for my fantasy team, how likely is it that he'll be a stud?
A:
There were three receivers taken in the 2002 first round:
- Donte Stallworth at #13 by New Orleans
- Ashley Lelie at #19 by Denver
- Javon Walker at #20 by Green Bay
...which is down from last year's crop of
SIX Wideouts!
Wide Receivers drafted in the first round from 1990-2001
| Yr |
Player |
Pick
# |
Team |
Wins
prior
Year |
Net
Wins
w/WR |
Yds |
TD |
Pts* |
| 91 |
Mike Pritchard |
13 |
ATL |
5 |
5 |
624 |
2 |
74 |
| 91 |
Herman Moore |
10 |
DET |
6 |
6 |
135 |
0 |
14 |
| 91 |
Alvin Harper |
12 |
DAL |
7 |
4 |
326 |
1 |
39 |
| 91 |
Randal Hill* |
23 |
MIA |
12 |
-4 |
495 |
1 |
56 |
| 92 |
Desmond Howard |
4 |
WAS |
14 |
-5 |
34 |
0 |
3 |
| 93 |
Curtis Conway |
7 |
CHI |
5 |
2 |
275 |
2 |
40 |
| 93 |
Sean Dawkins |
16 |
IND |
9 |
-5 |
430 |
1 |
49 |
| 93 |
O.J.McDuffie |
25 |
MIA |
11 |
-2 |
193 |
0 |
19 |
| 94 |
Derrick Alexander |
29 |
CLE |
7 |
4 |
866 |
2 |
99 |
| 94 |
Charles Johnson |
17 |
PIT |
9 |
3 |
576 |
3 |
76 |
| 94 |
Johnnie Morton |
21 |
DET |
10 |
-1 |
39 |
1 |
10 |
| 94 |
Thomas Lewis |
24 |
NYG |
11 |
-2 |
46 |
0 |
5 |
| 95 |
Michael Westbrook |
4 |
WAS |
3 |
3 |
636 |
2 |
76 |
| 95 |
Joey Galloway |
8 |
SEA |
6 |
2 |
1193 |
8 |
167 |
| 95 |
J.J.Stokes |
10 |
SF |
13 |
-2 |
517 |
4 |
76 |
| 96 |
Keyshawn Johnson |
1 |
NYJ |
3 |
-2 |
844 |
8 |
132 |
| 96 |
Terry Glenn |
7 |
NE |
6 |
5 |
1174 |
6 |
153 |
| 96 |
Eddie Kennison |
18 |
STL |
7 |
-1 |
924 |
9 |
146 |
| 96 |
Marvin Harrison |
19 |
IND |
9 |
0 |
851 |
8 |
133 |
| 96 |
Eric Moulds |
24 |
BUF |
10 |
0 |
323 |
2 |
44 |
| 97 |
Ike Hilliard |
7 |
NYG |
6 |
4 |
42 |
0 |
4 |
| 97 |
Reidel Anthony |
16 |
TB |
6 |
4 |
532 |
4 |
77 |
| 97 |
Yatil Green |
15 |
MIA |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 97 |
Rae Carruth |
27 |
CAR |
12 |
-5 |
568 |
4 |
81 |
| 98 |
Kevin Dyson |
16 |
TEN |
8 |
0 |
267 |
2 |
39 |
| 98 |
Randy Moss |
21 |
MIN |
9 |
6 |
1317 |
17 |
234 |
| 98 |
Marcus Nash |
30 |
DEN |
12 |
2 |
76 |
0 |
8 |
| 99 |
Tony Holt |
6 |
STL |
4 |
9 |
813 |
6 |
117 |
| 99 |
Troy Edwards |
13 |
PIT |
7 |
-1 |
714 |
5 |
101 |
| 99 |
David Boston |
8 |
ARI |
9 |
-3 |
473 |
2 |
59 |
| 2000 |
Peter Warrick |
4 |
CIN |
4 |
0 |
740 |
6 |
110 |
| 2000 |
Plaxico Burress |
8 |
PIT |
6 |
3 |
283 |
0 |
28 |
| 2000 |
Travis Taylor |
10 |
BAL |
8 |
4 |
287 |
3 |
47 |
| 2000 |
Sylvester Morris |
21 |
KC |
9 |
-2 |
678 |
3 |
86 |
| 2000 |
R.Jay Soward |
29 |
JAX |
14 |
-7 |
182 |
1 |
24 |
| 2001 |
David Terrell |
8 |
CHI |
5 |
+8 |
415 |
4 |
65 |
| 2001 |
Koren Robinson |
9 |
SEA |
6 |
+3 |
536 |
1 |
59 |
| 2001 |
Rod Gardner |
15 |
WAS |
8 |
0 |
741 |
4 |
98 |
| 2001 |
Santana Moss |
16 |
NYJ |
9 |
+1 |
40 |
0 |
4 |
| 2001 |
Freddie Mitchell |
25 |
PHI |
11 |
0 |
283 |
1 |
34 |
| 2001 |
Reggie Wayne |
30 |
IND |
10 |
-4 |
345 |
0 |
34 |
| 90 to 01 |
1st Round Picks (average) |
15 |
All |
8 |
1 |
483 |
3 |
66 |
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Notes: Randal Hill actually played 15 games for the Phoenix Cardinals in 1991. The Points column is based on the following formula (and includes rushing data): (yards/10) + (TD's * 6).
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ANALYSIS:
There have been 41 Wide Receivers drafted in the first round from 1990 to 2001.
You didn't give any specifics as to what you define as "stud" performance, so we'll use a
couple of gauges:
SOLID = 80+ points -- 13/41 or 32%
STAR = 100+ points -- 9/41 or 22%
STUD = 120+ points -- 6/41 or 15%
Randy Moss obviously shattered the definition of a stud WR with his '98 rookie campaign,
but take a look at the Class of 96: Keyshawn, Glenn, Harrison, a strong season for Kennison
and then a quiet year from Moulds who would later become a star...now that's some talent! Of course,
the '96 season accounts for 2/3 of the total rookie studs! Since 2000 there have been eleven high
hope draftees and only one star rookie season from the bunch. If you believe in cycles, you might
think we're due for some breakout years from NFL freshmen.
If you're looking for some other clues as to how to rate a rookie WR, here are some
"historical tips": over the 1990-2001 period, no 1st round Wide Receiver drafted by a good
team (10+ wins the prior season) has produced a "star" season, and in fact only 1 out 10 has
even been "solid". That puts a damper on Javon Walker's chances in Green Bay.
Meanwhile where a player is drafted in the first round doesn't seem to
be too indicative of how they'll perform -- our six studs were drafted #1, 7, 8, 18, 19, 21
(although no player drafted later than Moss' #21 posted star numbers). Looking only at top
10 picks you'll find 3 studs, 3 stars, 0 solids, and 9 fantasy "busts"...in other words only
40% of top-10 WR's end up posting star numbers in their rookie season, and the other 60% don't
meet the fantasy player's expectations!
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