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Q: If I take a Tight End drafted in this year's first round for my fantasy team, how likely is it that he'll be a stud?
A:
Well, the simple answer is "not very" but we're dealing with a very small sample size (only twelve
Tight Ends taken in the first round over the last twelve years), and interestingly enough, this
season we have three TE's taken in the "money round":
- Jeremy Shockey at #14 by the New York Giants
- Daniel Graham at #21 by New England
- Jerramy Stevens at #28 by Seattle
Tight Ends drafted in the first round from 1990-2001
| Yr |
Player |
Pick
# |
Team |
Wins
prior
Year |
Net
Wins
w/TE |
Yds |
TD |
Pts* |
| 90 |
Eric Green |
21 |
PIT |
9 |
0 |
387 |
7 |
81 |
| 92 |
Derek Brown |
14 |
NYG |
8 |
-2 |
31 |
0 |
3 |
| 92 |
Johnny Mitchell |
15 |
NYJ |
8 |
-4 |
210 |
1 |
27 |
| 93 |
Irv Smith |
20 |
NO |
12 |
-4 |
180 |
2 |
30 |
| 95 |
Kyle Brady |
9 |
NYJ |
6 |
-3 |
252 |
2 |
37 |
| 95 |
Mark Breuner |
27 |
PIT |
12 |
-1 |
238 |
3 |
42 |
| 96 |
Rickey Dudley |
9 |
OAK |
8 |
-1 |
386 |
4 |
63 |
| 97 |
David LaFleur |
22 |
DAL |
10 |
-4 |
122 |
2 |
24 |
| 97 |
Tony Gonzalez |
13 |
KC |
9 |
4 |
368 |
2 |
49 |
| 2000 |
Bubba Franks |
14 |
GB |
8 |
1 |
363 |
1 |
42 |
| 2000 |
Anthony Becht |
27 |
NYJ |
8 |
1 |
144 |
2 |
26 |
| 2001 |
Todd Heap |
31 |
BAL |
12 |
-2 |
206 |
1 |
26 |
| 90 to 01 |
1st Round Picks (Average) |
18 |
All |
9 |
-1 |
241 |
2 |
38 |
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Points is based on the following formula: (yards/10) + (TD's * 6).
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ANALYSIS:
As mentioned up top, there have been only been 12 Tight Ends drafted in the first round from
1990 to 2000. Clearly this isn't a position that typically gets a lot of attention early
in the NFL draft, and probably rightly so given that the players seldom post good rookie year
numbers, and more importantly, of the twelve teams that did try this maneuver,
8 out of 12 lost more games with the hotshot Tight End than they did the year before!
In other words don't expect improvement in a team's W-L record because they add a TE.
Tony Gonzalez is the name of course that pops off this list and he is also the exception
to the last statement since the Chiefs were 9-7 the year before he arrived, and
13-3 in his rookie season!
So why one might wonder the sudden interest in 2002 for Tight Ends? It certainly doesn't appear
to be the case that having a pass-catching TE is the way to victory in the NFL -- consider that
of the top ten TE's in the TMW rankings (looking at opportunities and actual production), only
three of the ten were on teams that made it to the playoffs!
Of course, many teams look to a tight end more for his blocking abilities than his pass
catching skills, but fantasy players are only concerned at this point (we hope to change that
one day with our TwoMinuteWarning "blocking stats"...) with pure offensive production.
Here's the scale we made for evaluating Tight End performance and what percentage of the
1st round rookie class made the cut:
Decent = 50+ Points -- 2/12
Star = 75+ Points -- 1/12
STUD = 100+ Points -- 0/12
Historically speaking therefore, you have a very low chance of landing a tight end
fantasy stud by grabbing a first round draft pick. A number of the players listed above
came into the league with quite a bit of hype and expectations that they would indeed be
getting thrown the ball a lot. Of course, it hasn't worked out that way in actuality.
Consequently our advice is to pay the premium for an established tight end, or to just
live with one of the many guys available who all have pretty comparable (and mediocre)
stats...
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