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Q: I've always believed that some teams are much more physical than others, with the most
aggressive inflicting serious pain on their opponents. This would
tend to suggest that if you looked at the won-lost record of a team's opponents
in the week after playing them, it would tell you which teams are indeed
the "bruisers" in that the physical teams leave their opponents so banged up that
the next week they are ineffective and more likely to lose. Can you tell
me what the W-L records were of teams' opponents in the week following a game for the
2001 season?
A: This harkens back to our famous "Silver and Black Punishment Effect" article which owed its
name to an incredible streak put together by those original kings of the "black and blue" treatment,
the Oakland Raiders. Back in their heyday the Raiders were certainly a little
nasty to play against (if not downright dirty) and teams did in fact fare very poorly
in the game after playing the Oaktown boys, particularly when the next game was
at home. Here are the teams ranked in order of "most punishing" in 2001 if you buy this
line of reasoning...
Results of Opponents in the week following a game
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
Average
Points
For |
Average
Points
Against |
| Philadelphia |
3 |
12 |
20.4 |
25.1 |
| Tennessee |
4 |
11 |
17.6 |
21.1 |
| Arizona |
5 |
9 |
20.5 |
23.5 |
| Indianapolis |
5 |
8 |
15.7 |
20.1 |
| Buffalo |
5 |
8 |
17.5 |
21.1 |
| Seattle |
5 |
7 |
22.0 |
21.5 |
| Oakland |
6 |
8 |
17.9 |
22.2 |
| New England |
6 |
8 |
21.2 |
20.6 |
| Cleveland |
6 |
8 |
17.5 |
19.6 |
| San Diego |
7 |
9 |
18.1 |
22.0 |
| Miami |
6 |
7 |
19.8 |
23.0 |
| Jacksonville |
6 |
7 |
19.2 |
19.8 |
| Green Bay |
7 |
8 |
17.5 |
22.0 |
| Kansas City |
7 |
7 |
17.2 |
17.4 |
| N.Y. Jets |
6 |
6 |
23.8 |
24.5 |
| St. Louis |
8 |
7 |
19.5 |
18.0 |
| Cincinnati |
8 |
7 |
18.4 |
19.3 |
| Chicago |
8 |
7 |
22.9 |
19.2 |
| Minnesota |
7 |
6 |
21.4 |
21.3 |
| Washington |
8 |
6 |
18.7 |
17.3 |
| Detroit |
8 |
6 |
20.4 |
20.2 |
| Baltimore |
8 |
6 |
20.4 |
19.8 |
| Atlanta |
8 |
6 |
22.0 |
22.6 |
| San Francisco |
9 |
6 |
24.7 |
20.9 |
| N.Y. Giants |
9 |
6 |
23.1 |
18.7 |
| Carolina |
9 |
6 |
23.2 |
18.8 |
| New Orleans |
8 |
5 |
24.2 |
23.4 |
| Dallas |
9 |
5 |
19.8 |
14.9 |
| Denver |
9 |
5 |
22.6 |
16.6 |
| Tampa Bay |
9 |
5 |
22.9 |
19.9 |
| Pittsburgh |
11 |
4 |
23.3 |
18.2 |
So based on the above you'd say that Philadelphia was the team that most blunted a team's prospects in the following week, as opponents were just 3-12 following a skirmish with the Eagles. This seems to support the "bruising team" theory since the Eagles have a strong, physical defense and an offense that can wear you down worrying about what McNabb is up to. The #2 team is Tennessee, who despite a poor season still have some "toughies" on the roster like Kearse, Carter, George (hey, he may not have been all that effective, but you try tackling him 20 times a game and see how you feel afterwards) and another scrambling QB in McNair.
So far so good then on the theory, and yes the Raiders checked in at #7, tied with eventual Super Bowl Champions New England. However, it's a lot harder to buy that Arizona, Indianapolis, Buffalo and Seattle are the "rogue teams" of the NFL. On the bottom end of the table a game against the Steelers served as the best springboard to a winning effort the following week, which is news to us since we've always viewed Pittsburgh as a rough rumble in the trenches.
So frankly we're a little sceptical of this theory these days, and the truth of the matter is that the schedule of the opponents a team may face has more than a little to do with the above stats. If you played a team that then faced St. Louis in the following week, chances are pretty good that your opponent got stuck with a loss regardless of how you played against them. At the same time if your opponent took on the Panthers the next week, they would most likely come away with a win. One way to diffuse the variances in schedules between teams is to go not by straight won/lost records, but rather by the record against the point spread of an opponent the next week, since the line on a game represents to some degree the expected performance. Taking this view of things, the order of the teams does change, although for the most part not that substantially--
Point Spread Results of Opponents in the following week
| Team |
Won
vs
spread |
Lost
vs
spread |
Average
Points
For |
Average
Points
Against |
Won |
Lost |
| Tennessee |
3 |
12 |
17.6 |
21.1 |
4 |
11 |
| Cleveland |
3 |
10 |
17.5 |
19.6 |
6 |
8 |
| Indianapolis |
4 |
9 |
15.7 |
20.1 |
5 |
8 |
| New Orleans |
4 |
8 |
24.2 |
23.4 |
8 |
5 |
| Philadelphia |
5 |
9 |
20.4 |
25.1 |
3 |
12 |
| Oakland |
5 |
9 |
17.9 |
22.2 |
6 |
8 |
| San Diego |
6 |
10 |
18.1 |
22.0 |
7 |
9 |
| Arizona |
5 |
8 |
20.5 |
23.5 |
5 |
9 |
| Seattle |
5 |
7 |
22.0 |
21.5 |
5 |
7 |
| Detroit |
6 |
8 |
20.4 |
20.2 |
8 |
6 |
| New England |
6 |
7 |
21.2 |
20.6 |
6 |
8 |
| Miami |
6 |
7 |
19.8 |
23.0 |
6 |
7 |
| Green Bay |
6 |
7 |
17.5 |
22.0 |
7 |
8 |
| Baltimore |
6 |
6 |
20.4 |
19.8 |
8 |
6 |
| Denver |
7 |
7 |
22.6 |
16.6 |
9 |
5 |
| Kansas City |
6 |
6 |
17.2 |
17.4 |
7 |
7 |
| St. Louis |
8 |
7 |
19.5 |
18.0 |
8 |
7 |
| Cincinnati |
8 |
7 |
18.4 |
19.3 |
8 |
7 |
| Minnesota |
7 |
6 |
21.4 |
21.3 |
7 |
6 |
| Tampa Bay |
8 |
6 |
22.9 |
19.9 |
9 |
5 |
| Buffalo |
7 |
5 |
17.5 |
21.1 |
5 |
8 |
| N.Y. Jets |
7 |
5 |
23.8 |
24.5 |
6 |
6 |
| Atlanta |
8 |
5 |
22.0 |
22.6 |
8 |
6 |
| Chicago |
9 |
5 |
22.9 |
19.2 |
8 |
7 |
| Dallas |
9 |
5 |
19.8 |
14.9 |
9 |
5 |
| San Francisco |
9 |
5 |
24.7 |
20.9 |
9 |
6 |
| Washington |
9 |
5 |
18.7 |
17.3 |
8 |
6 |
| N.Y. Giants |
10 |
5 |
23.1 |
18.7 |
9 |
6 |
| Carolina |
10 |
5 |
23.2 |
18.8 |
9 |
6 |
| Pittsburgh |
11 |
4 |
23.3 |
18.2 |
11 |
4 |
| Jacksonville |
9 |
3 |
19.2 |
19.8 |
6 |
7 |
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