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Q: Can you run a breakout of how each team did against .500 or better clubs? Ideally I'd like it straight W-L and against the spread.
A: That's an easy one, although a little hampered for analysis purposes in that the teams below .500 will inherently produce a better overall W-L record (in that the outcome of the game you are looking at is part of that team's record). Still, here's the straight-up data first of all:
| Opponent: |
8-8 or better |
7-9 or worse |
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
Pts For |
Pts Agn |
Won |
Lost |
Pts For |
Pts Agn |
| Arizona |
5 |
4 |
19.6 |
19.2 |
2 |
5 |
17.0 |
24.3 |
| Atlanta |
6 |
2 |
22.3 |
20.3 |
1 |
7 |
14.1 |
26.9 |
| Baltimore |
7 |
3 |
19.9 |
15.7 |
3 |
3 |
17.3 |
18.0 |
| Buffalo |
2 |
5 |
19.7 |
27.1 |
1 |
8 |
14.1 |
25.6 |
| Carolina |
1 |
6 |
18.0 |
22.3 |
0 |
9 |
14.1 |
28.2 |
| Chicago |
9 |
0 |
22.4 |
8.4 |
4 |
3 |
19.4 |
18.1 |
| Cincinnati |
3 |
5 |
15.3 |
21.5 |
3 |
5 |
13.0 |
17.1 |
| Cleveland |
5 |
3 |
20.6 |
19.0 |
2 |
6 |
15.0 |
20.9 |
| Dallas |
2 |
5 |
16.4 |
18.1 |
3 |
6 |
14.6 |
23.4 |
| Denver |
5 |
3 |
23.0 |
20.6 |
3 |
5 |
19.5 |
21.8 |
| Detroit |
2 |
5 |
24.4 |
27.4 |
0 |
9 |
11.0 |
25.8 |
| Green Bay |
7 |
3 |
25.4 |
19.0 |
5 |
1 |
22.7 |
12.7 |
| Indianapolis |
4 |
1 |
33.6 |
25.8 |
2 |
9 |
22.3 |
32.5 |
| Jacksonville |
5 |
4 |
19.9 |
15.1 |
1 |
6 |
16.4 |
21.4 |
| Kansas City |
3 |
3 |
20.3 |
22.5 |
3 |
7 |
19.8 |
20.9 |
| Miami |
7 |
0 |
30.1 |
15.3 |
4 |
5 |
14.8 |
20.3 |
| Minnesota |
3 |
4 |
22.3 |
25.4 |
2 |
7 |
14.9 |
23.6 |
| New England |
9 |
1 |
28.4 |
14.8 |
2 |
4 |
14.5 |
20.7 |
| New Orleans |
6 |
2 |
24.3 |
17.5 |
1 |
7 |
17.4 |
33.6 |
| New York Giants |
5 |
2 |
17.7 |
15.9 |
2 |
7 |
18.9 |
23.3 |
| New York Jets |
6 |
2 |
21.9 |
20.6 |
4 |
4 |
16.6 |
16.3 |
| Oakland |
7 |
2 |
24.7 |
19.6 |
3 |
4 |
25.3 |
21.6 |
| Philadelphia |
8 |
1 |
27.3 |
13.3 |
3 |
4 |
13.9 |
12.6 |
| Pittsburgh |
10 |
2 |
23.4 |
13.4 |
3 |
1 |
17.8 |
12.8 |
| St.Louis |
8 |
1 |
34.3 |
16.8 |
6 |
1 |
27.7 |
17.4 |
| San Diego |
3 |
4 |
22.4 |
20.6 |
2 |
7 |
19.4 |
19.7 |
| San Francisco |
9 |
1 |
28.5 |
16.8 |
3 |
3 |
20.7 |
19.0 |
| Seattle |
7 |
2 |
19.4 |
15.6 |
2 |
5 |
18.0 |
26.3 |
| Tampa Bay |
6 |
2 |
24.3 |
16.8 |
3 |
5 |
16.3 |
18.3 |
| Tennessee |
4 |
4 |
24.4 |
23.6 |
3 |
5 |
17.6 |
24.9 |
| Washington |
5 |
5 |
17.8 |
19.9 |
3 |
3 |
13.0 |
17.3 |
ANALYSIS: So a few interesting tidbits:
- Of the teams with losing records, Atlanta, Indianapolis, New Orleans, and the New York Giants were all very successful against fellow sub .500 squads, but unable to challenge the better ones
- Chicago and Miami were merciless against the lower echelons, but both teams got ousted quickly in the playoffs
- Only Green Bay, St. Louis and Pittsburgh achieved truly outstanding records against good sides
- The top two teams in each conference so far as average margin against lesser sides were St. Louis and Chicago in the NFC, and Miami and New England in the AFC. This is often a good measure since it represents how consistent a team is in playing hard even in so-called pushover games.
Moving on the next request, here are the spread results:
| Opponent: |
8-8 or better |
7-9 or worse |
| Team |
Won
vs
Spread |
Lost
vs
Spread |
Line Net |
Won
vs
Spread |
Lost
vs
Spread |
Line Net |
| Arizona |
6 |
3 |
2.4 |
3 |
3 |
0.3 |
| Atlanta |
4 |
3 |
1.5 |
2 |
5 |
-7.8 |
| Baltimore |
5 |
5 |
-2.5 |
3 |
3 |
-1.9 |
| Buffalo |
3 |
4 |
-3.2 |
3 |
6 |
-6.0 |
| Carolina |
4 |
2 |
0.6 |
3 |
6 |
-7.2 |
| Chicago |
7 |
1 |
12.0 |
4 |
3 |
3.6 |
| Cincinnati |
3 |
5 |
-3.4 |
5 |
3 |
1.4 |
| Cleveland |
5 |
3 |
3.1 |
3 |
4 |
0.1 |
| Dallas |
3 |
4 |
1.9 |
5 |
4 |
-0.8 |
| Denver |
4 |
4 |
-2.4 |
3 |
5 |
-5.3 |
| Detroit |
4 |
3 |
-0.3 |
5 |
4 |
-7.2 |
| Green Bay |
5 |
4 |
0.8 |
4 |
2 |
7.0 |
| Indianapolis |
4 |
1 |
4.8 |
2 |
9 |
-11.0 |
| Jacksonville |
5 |
4 |
2.5 |
3 |
4 |
-2.4 |
| Kansas City |
2 |
4 |
-1.2 |
5 |
4 |
1.6 |
| Miami |
6 |
0 |
11.4 |
4 |
5 |
-7.0 |
| Minnesota |
2 |
5 |
-6.1 |
3 |
5 |
-4.8 |
| New England |
8 |
2 |
14.1 |
3 |
3 |
-1.6 |
| New Orleans |
4 |
4 |
2.8 |
2 |
6 |
-14.4 |
| New York Giants |
3 |
4 |
-1.8 |
2 |
6 |
-4.5 |
| New York Jets |
4 |
4 |
-1.1 |
4 |
4 |
2.6 |
| Oakland |
4 |
4 |
-1.8 |
3 |
4 |
0.3 |
| Philadelphia |
7 |
2 |
7.6 |
3 |
3 |
0.6 |
| Pittsburgh |
8 |
3 |
6.3 |
3 |
1 |
5.4 |
| St.Louis |
6 |
3 |
5.7 |
3 |
3 |
3.3 |
| San Diego |
3 |
4 |
-2.4 |
2 |
6 |
2.4 |
| San Francisco |
5 |
5 |
7.0 |
4 |
2 |
3.8 |
| Seattle |
4 |
4 |
2.8 |
2 |
5 |
-3.7 |
| Tampa Bay |
2 |
5 |
3.2 |
4 |
4 |
-1.9 |
| Tennessee |
3 |
5 |
-1.8 |
2 |
5 |
-6.6 |
| Washington |
5 |
4 |
0.5 |
3 |
3 |
1.0 |
ANALYSIS:
- The best spread bets against the lesser teams were Miami (6-0), Chicago (7-1), and New England (8-2)
- The worst wagers against poor teams were Minnesota (2-5), Tampa Bay (2-5) and Kansas City (2-4)
- Against the good sides your best bets were Pittsburgh (3-1), Green Bay (4-2) and San Francisco (4-2).
- The worst plays came from those backing Indianapolis (2-9) and San Diego (2-6).
How much these numbers change from year to year is something we will look at in a future column -- our guess is they change a lot and there is probably not much value in knowing that say Miami was a great bet versus suspect teams (especially when we are defining "suspect" after the season is over and we know all of a team's results!).
Another way to look at this is by checking the record of the opponent coming into the game -- and this is something we are already doing in our subscriber series on "Quantifying Motivation"
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