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Q: I enjoyed your stats on which teams are the most punishing to play against, but I've always believed a more important factor is who a team is playing the following week as I know some players and even coaches start "looking ahead" to more prime time type matchups. Which NFL teams were so on the minds of teams the week before that it effected performance?
A:
The whole idea of a "schedule letdown" from a team being too distracted by an upcoming matchup to focus on the game at hand has been fairly well validated as an actual occurrence. Some teams of course are more vulnerable to these "off days" than others, but they do exist. The best example perhaps from last season of a team being distracted by a "big game" just around the corner occurred in week 6. The New Orleans Saints stood at 3-1 and were hosting the 2-3 Falcons, but looming was a "playoff rematch" with the St. Louis Rams (5-0 and counting at the time). Despite being 8 1/2 point favorites, the Saints were humbled 20-13 before the home crowd, and after subsequently losing to the Rams the following week quickly fell from Super Bowl contender status.
While it is easy of course in hindsight to point out cases where a team was flat or failed to show up, the actual results from running this query don't lead us to believe there's much value in tracking this sort of thing except on a case-by-case basis...
Results of opponents in week before a game
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
Average
Points
For |
Average
Points
Against |
Won
vs
Spread |
Lost
vs
Spread |
| San Diego |
4 |
9 |
20.2 |
27.2 |
3 |
10 |
| Tennessee |
5 |
8 |
16.8 |
22.9 |
5 |
8 |
| Washington |
5 |
8 |
18.5 |
22.6 |
3 |
9 |
| New England |
6 |
9 |
18.5 |
21.1 |
5 |
9 |
| Seattle |
6 |
9 |
17.7 |
20.2 |
5 |
9 |
| Philadelphia |
6 |
9 |
20.7 |
23.2 |
6 |
9 |
| Carolina |
6 |
8 |
16.2 |
17.2 |
6 |
8 |
| Indianapolis |
6 |
8 |
20.0 |
22.6 |
4 |
9 |
| New Orleans |
6 |
8 |
20.7 |
18.4 |
7 |
5 |
| St.Louis |
6 |
8 |
20.9 |
23.0 |
7 |
7 |
| New York Jets |
6 |
7 |
20.1 |
19.2 |
6 |
6 |
| Dallas |
6 |
7 |
22.0 |
22.0 |
6 |
6 |
| Miami |
7 |
8 |
22.0 |
23.9 |
8 |
7 |
| Denver |
7 |
8 |
17.5 |
19.9 |
5 |
9 |
| Minnesota |
7 |
8 |
17.2 |
19.4 |
7 |
8 |
| Atlanta |
7 |
8 |
23.4 |
20.1 |
8 |
7 |
| Tampa Bay |
7 |
7 |
18.8 |
15.6 |
8 |
5 |
| Cleveland |
8 |
7 |
23.3 |
17.9 |
11 |
4 |
| Baltimore |
8 |
7 |
22.9 |
21.3 |
8 |
7 |
| New York Giants |
8 |
7 |
21.3 |
19.8 |
8 |
6 |
| Green Bay |
8 |
7 |
23.5 |
19.4 |
8 |
6 |
| Pittsburgh |
7 |
6 |
16.2 |
15.2 |
6 |
6 |
| Cincinnati |
7 |
6 |
19.2 |
18.8 |
6 |
5 |
| Oakland |
8 |
6 |
18.4 |
17.6 |
9 |
5 |
| Arizona |
9 |
6 |
20.8 |
20.7 |
6 |
9 |
| Buffalo |
8 |
5 |
19.8 |
15.5 |
5 |
5 |
| Detroit |
8 |
5 |
21.3 |
21.8 |
6 |
7 |
| Chicago |
8 |
5 |
20.1 |
19.8 |
9 |
4 |
| Jacksonville |
10 |
5 |
17.2 |
14.6 |
13 |
2 |
| San Francisco |
9 |
4 |
26.8 |
22.2 |
9 |
3 |
| Kansas City |
10 |
4 |
25.6 |
21.0 |
7 |
6 |
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