Part IV -- Preseason Teaser Bets
One line of thought regarding preseason games is that since teams are not going all out for a victory, the average score would be closer than games played in the regular season.
You might wonder, even if this is true, why we would care? The answer lies in that oddity -- the Teaser wager, wherein for reduced odds, a player can have points added in their favor to the basic spread. Since the rules and odds for teaser bets are the same in preseason, there might be an advantage if indeed games tend to play close.
The first test is easy, we simply compare the average margin of victory for preseason to the regular season. From 1997 to 2001 (a five year span) the average preseason game was won by 10.2 points, which is slightly below NFL regular season norms (in last season's NFL action for instance, the average margin was 11.1 points).
Averages may not be the best tool to assess this however, so instead let's just jump in with some hard results on how you would have done playing a six-point teaser (there are other levels you can use when teasing, but we will stick with the six for our analysis).
The basic results can be summed up as follows:
- Home Teams: 212-84 (71%)
- Away Teams: 208-92 (69%)
- Favorites: 202-86 (70%)
- Underdogs: 210-88 (70%)
- Pick'Ems: 8-2 (80%)
Now in the regular season a six-point teaser on a single team will usually win around 67% of the time, so we can deduce that at least over the last five years, the preseason games have been tighter, and consquently more advantageous to the teaser player than the regular season events.
Okay, but the other critical thing about teaser bets is you get the same six points regardless of what the line is. The reason this is crucial is because in the NFL there are "key numbers" which are commonplace in final score differences -- the most common outcome is a three point win, and seven points is another familiar result, unlike say a one point win which is rare. In a case where a team is a 2-point underdog, getting the six teaser points means you "pick up" the three and seven which is huge! Consequently the next step is to look a little at how teams have fared in different odds ranges:
| Odds Range |
Record as 6-Pt Teaser |
Teaser Win% |
| 3.5+ Underdog |
97 - 56 |
63% |
| 1 to 3 pt Underdog |
113 - 32 |
78% |
| 1 to 3 pt Favorite |
95 - 44 |
68% |
| 3.5+ Favorite |
107 - 42 |
72% |
From the above we can conclude that the high percentage teasers play have been small underdogs getting from 1 to 3 points.
Another approach to assessing teasers is to break out the match-ups a little, and we'll do this according to how many preseason wins each team in the pairing has. In general, preseason wins do reflect to some degree a team's efforts to achieve victory (although the linemakers factor this into the spread of course).
Home
Team
Preseason Wins |
Away
Team
Preseason Wins |
Home Record
as 6-pt Teaser |
Home
Teaser % |
Away Record
as 6-pt Teaser |
Away
Teaser % |
| 0 |
0 |
62 - 25 |
71 % |
68 - 21 |
76 % |
| 0 |
1 |
24 - 11 |
68 % |
22 - 14 |
61 % |
| 0 |
2+ |
12 - 5 |
70 % |
12 - 5 |
70 % |
| 1 |
0 |
23 - 3 |
88 % |
15 - 11 |
57 % |
| 1 |
1 |
31 - 15 |
67 % |
33 - 14 |
70 % |
| 1 |
2+ |
13 - 14 |
48 % |
22 - 5 |
81 % |
| 2+ |
0 |
7 - 1 |
87 % |
3 - 5 |
37 % |
| 2+ |
1 |
17 - 6 |
73 % |
16 - 7 |
69 % |
| 2+ |
2+ |
23 - 4 |
85 % |
17 - 10 |
62 % |
A couple of areas stand out -- home teams with two or more preseason wins have been a solid 47-11 (81%) as six point teaser plays. Home teams with one win against a winless away club are 23-3 (88%). For away teams the only truly strong match-up has been a one win home side against a two plus win away team, but the record is almost identical to playing that pairing against the spread, suggesting that the teaser isn't coming into play much.
Lastly we found in our spread research that games between winless teams saw the underdog cover an inordinate amount of the time, so checking for dogs in the "0 vs 0" match-ups, it turns out that you'd be a nice 87-22 (80%) backing the dog as a teaser.
While our efforts here are hardly exhausting the avenues of preseason teaser research, it appears likely that teasers offer some level of opportunity during the exhibitions. A quick recap of our top "Teaser Tips" includes:
- Underdogs getting one to three points
- Home teams with two or more preseason wins
- Winless underdogs facing a winless opponent
- Lean to home teams with one win versus a winless away team
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