ANALYSIS: All of the above is based on following historical patterns with regards to this bet, which is always a somewhat shaky starting point. This season though that warning is particularly true, given the restructuring of the NFL divisions -- some teams made out like bandits from this, while others may have been thrown to the lions!
However, we isolated those teams where there were at least two factors pointing the same way and no conflicting information. Whether this is the best approach is certainly arguable. In the interest of full disclosure therefore, we will mention our results from 2001 with a similar type of analysis:
- Consensus Picks: 8-4
- Win History: 12-8
- Line History: 11-4
- Line minus Wins: 11-6
- Bounce Effect: 5-1
- Draft Picks: 2-2
As the patterns revealed in our research have shown, the best plan has often been to go Under on select high win totals (eg the expected good teams) and go Over on select low totals (the expected bad teams). Part of this theory is that injuries can quickly take their toll on even the best squad (who are often facing much tougher schedules than their previous season) while the lowly teams have an easier schedule and can benefit by "things going wrong" from the teams above them.
One last note before we sign off on this for now is that the lines we are using are very preliminary and subject to change quite significantly as the NFL season draws closer. We'll revisit the above table once we get into August and the lines are firmer.
Update:
Yes, the lines have moved some from our original postings, although with season wins you have often to go to offshore and hence shakier lines which are also dominated by moving the money line instead of moving the actual # of games. Here's a quick rundown of some of the teams with line changes:
St. Louis -- now 11.5 most places. The increase in the line actually improves their chances of going over in the "line minus wins" column, but decreases it elsewhere, so the pick stays UNDER.
Seattle -- the line has been dropping thanks to Dilfer's injury and Walter Jones' holdout. Volatile at this point. The under becomes a little more favorable as the line drops, but not to the degree it becomes a pick.
Atlanta -- the number is now 7 or 7 1/2 most places. Starts to edge towards the under as teams with season lines the same as the prior year wins are 13/19 under.
Buffalo -- now 6 1/2 at several places. Still a strong under on 'win history' but with conflicting over evidence on 'line minus wins' and 'bounce.'
Carolina -- ugh! Line hasn't moved much most places but difficult to make an over play on a team that dumps the presumed starting QB for an aging, aged veteran. Is Rodney Peete the best option? Even Jeff George would seem like a step up!
