Tracking the DCTO performance by Week Number
The following research is based on the new predicted scores system discussed in the combining drive chart predictions with turnover difference theory article in the main research section.
To review, the new formula for projecting scores against the spread showed a very strong 57.8% success rate from 1998 to 2002 looking at all games from week five and on.
This is a great start, but the next point to consider is that the basic turnover difference theory has proven to be very effective from week 5 to week 12 in the NFL regular season (the heart of the season), yet less so in later weeks. Given this it might seem logical that combining the Drive Chart stats with Turnover data would prove formidable during the week 5 to 12 key zone, but taper off thereafter.
To find out the history is easy enough, we'll run the numbers in the database --
1998 to 2002 Seasons
Weeks 5 to 12
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
13 - 9 |
17 - 10 |
16 - 14 |
12 - 10 |
35 - 32 |
93 - 75 |
| HomeDogs |
10 - 4 |
6 - 9 |
5 - 5 |
10 - 3 |
27 - 18 |
58 - 39 |
| AwayFavs |
8 - 6 |
13 - 10 |
4 - 3 |
6 - 8 |
14 - 11 |
45 - 38 |
| AwayDogs |
14 - 9 |
24 - 12 |
13 - 10 |
18 - 10 |
46 - 25 |
115 - 66 |
| Favorites |
21 - 15 |
30 - 20 |
20 - 17 |
18 - 18 |
49 - 43 |
138 - 113 |
| Underdogs |
24 - 13 |
30 - 21 |
18 - 15 |
28 - 13 |
73 - 43 |
173 - 105 |
| Home Teams |
23 - 13 |
23 - 19 |
21 - 19 |
22 - 13 |
62 - 50 |
151 - 114 |
| Away Teams |
22 - 15 |
37 - 22 |
17 - 13 |
24 - 18 |
60 - 36 |
160 - 104 |
| ALL PICKS |
45 - 28 |
60 - 41 |
38 - 32 |
46 - 31 |
122 - 86 |
311 - 218 |
| WIN % |
62 % |
59 % |
54 % |
60 % |
59 % |
59 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
13 - 17 |
47 - 44 |
78 - 52 |
| Underdogs |
16 - 8 |
70 - 42 |
87 - 55 |
Comments: the overall performance is somewhat better when we use the narrower time frame. Most noticeable is the strength of the underdogs in this middle part of the regular season schedule: 173-105 for an outstanding 62% cover rate. Amazingly enough, the away underdogs are better than the well documented home dogs.
Less surprising perhaps is that the big favorites selected by this scheme are not to be trusted, as they have managed a sub-.500 record of 60-61 when laying five or more points.
Additionally, the overlay level is of no consequence.
Fair enough, but what about the later weeks, from week 13 on?
1998 to 2002 Seasons
Weeks 13 to 17
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
19 - 11 |
13 - 8 |
11 - 9 |
11 - 7 |
24 - 12 |
78 - 47 |
| HomeDogs |
6 - 10 |
6 - 5 |
14 - 5 |
11 - 1 |
11 - 9 |
48 - 30 |
| AwayFavs |
6 - 4 |
5 - 4 |
5 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
1 - 5 |
21 - 24 |
| AwayDogs |
4 - 12 |
16 - 10 |
15 - 14 |
8 - 6 |
16 - 13 |
59 - 55 |
| Favorites |
25 - 15 |
18 - 12 |
16 - 15 |
15 - 12 |
25 - 17 |
99 - 71 |
| Underdogs |
10 - 22 |
22 - 15 |
29 - 19 |
19 - 7 |
27 - 22 |
107 - 85 |
| Home Teams |
25 - 21 |
19 - 13 |
25 - 14 |
22 - 8 |
35 - 21 |
126 - 77 |
| Away Teams |
10 - 16 |
21 - 14 |
20 - 20 |
12 - 11 |
17 - 18 |
80 - 79 |
| ALL PICKS |
35 - 37 |
40 - 27 |
45 - 34 |
34 - 19 |
52 - 39 |
206 - 156 |
| WIN % |
49 % |
60 % |
57 % |
64 % |
57 % |
57 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
16 - 7 |
34 - 28 |
49 - 36 |
| Underdogs |
12 - 11 |
37 - 30 |
58 - 44 |
Comments: a dropoff is seen then from the mid-year period, but we're still pretty happy hitting 57% playing all games with no additional analysis! There is however one distinct trend to note in the last month plus of the season with the DC/TO --
- it's all about the home teams, as the away sides are a mediocre 80-79, while the home squads are 126-77 (62%). Favorite lover? Jump on board the big home sides down the stretch, as they've been a nifty 78-47 (also 62%).
Now we'll be posting a separate article with some analysis on how the home field advantage changes over the course of the season, but the conclusion is that the DC/TO can be powerful in the later weeks, just be sure your team is playing in the comfy and familiar confines of the home environment.
| 
