Part V -- Two Year Team Trends
We've looked at preseason matchups using a number of different prior season stats, and found some useful tips. Perhaps though there is some benefit to looking at a slighly longer window of a team's prior regular season performances?
First off we will revisit the notion of the "G-A-P" grading system, which for reference we classified as:
- Good -- teams with a 10 or more wins in the prior regular season
- Average -- teams with 7 to 9 wins
- Poor -- teams with less than 7 wins
Now, rather than look at one team's status against another, we will simply focus on the two year trend for a given side:
| 2002 |
2001 |
Home
(vs Spr) |
Away
(vs Spr) |
Overall
Win% |
| Good |
Good |
22-20 (52%) |
22-19 (54%) |
53 % |
| Good |
Average |
14-16 (46%) |
12-14 (47%) |
46 % |
| Good |
Poor |
8-12 (40%) |
12-10 (55%) |
48 % |
| Average |
Good |
13-17 (43%) |
14-19 (43%) |
43 % |
| Average |
Average |
15-22 (40%) |
20-15 (58%) |
49 % |
| Average |
Poor |
10-17 (37%) |
15-12 (56%) |
46 % |
| Poor |
Good |
6-10 (37%) |
10-6 (63%) |
50 % |
| Poor |
Average |
17-22 (43%) |
23-15 (61%) |
52 % |
| Poor |
Poor |
23-26 (46%) |
34-18 (66%) |
56 % |
The key thing to take away from this database query is that teams coming off a poor recent season (6-10 or worse) have been excellent spread bets on the road in the preseason, and this is especially true for teams coming off back-to-back poor years. Indeed the 'poor-poor' sides are 69% as away dogs over the past six preseason schedules.
Other than that the numbers aren't that striking, and perhaps even surprising in that teams with back-to-back good years have been above 50% against the line in preseason, even though they would be assumed to have the least to play for and are more commonly favored.
The other two-year trends we wanted to investigate dealt with a revisit to the offensive/defensive ranks concept of the Preseason prior year Offense/Defense article. In that, we graded teams on points scored and points allowed as again either good, average or poor. The areas of note there were the extremes -- teams with a top 10 offense and defense, and teams with a bottom 10 offense and defense.
Rather than produce the whole table, we'll give you the best of the findings:
- Teams which have been ranked 21st or worse for two straight years in points scored are a dismal 13-33 as home favorites in the preseason (but conversely a respectable 11-8 as home underdogs)
- Teams which two years prior were among the worst teams in points allowed, but improved to be either average or good in the most recent season have been reliable "go-againsts" as home favorites, posting a 12-34 record.
- Teams with bad points scored in the prior season were solid road dogs regardless of their two-year previous offensive capability (69-40 record).
- Similarly, teams with bad points allowed in the last year are excellent road dogs, especially strong if their two-year back points allowed was either average or good.
If all this is starting to sound like a broken record, it's because there is an inherent bias in the six year sample -- away underdogs did well, and consequently home favorites did not. Still, there is some reason to believe that getting points in an essentially meaningless game is a good thing!
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