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Part II: Line History & Line compared to last season Wins
Thanks to our friends at Americasline.com, we were able to get our hands on the season win over/under lines for the five years from 1996 to 2000, and then we have added in our own results from the 2001 and 2002 campaigns. Consequently we can provide a more sophisticated look at this bet type! The first breakout to consider is simply how have teams done at certain "win lines" (for example how often have teams with a line of 8 gone over versus under the number):
Season Win
Line |
Overs |
Unders |
Ties |
Over % |
| 4.5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
100% |
| 5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
25% |
| 5.5 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
67% |
| 6 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
84% |
| 6.5 |
9 |
12 |
0 |
43% |
| 7 |
8 |
9 |
1 |
47% |
| 7.5 |
12 |
8 |
0 |
60% |
| 8 |
10 |
13 |
6 |
43% |
| 8.5 |
15 |
13 |
0 |
54% |
| 9 |
9 |
5 |
2 |
64% |
| 9.5 |
5 |
8 |
0 |
38% |
| 10 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
50% |
| 10.5 |
3 |
15 |
0 |
17% |
| 11 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
40% |
| 11.5 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
50% |
| 12 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
100% |
| Totals |
83 |
88 |
13 |
49% |
All records are from 1996-2002.
ANALYSIS: All lines used in compiling the above table were "current" rather than opening ones, taken from close to the start of the season and presumably after most of the line moves had taken place.
It's important to be cautious when looking at small samples of data to NOT jump to conclusions. However, what one gleans at a glance from the above is that teams with adjusted season win lines (after significant betting activity) of 6 or fewer wins have done well, going 18-9 as OVER plays (67%), while teams with high adjusted win lines of 9 1/2 or more wins have done poorly, and as a result have gone 33-18 as UNDER plays (65%). Last season saw some break with that pattern in that the low-line teams were just 1-1 (Carolina went over, Detroit went under), and the high line teams actually got the over 5 of 9. Still, the history has been that there is potential value at "both ends" of the table.
Now let's take a look at season performance based on how a team's prior year record compares to the line set for them this season (for example if a team was 6-10 last year but has a season win line of 8 1/2 this year, then they would count as a +2 1/2 on the "Net vs Line"):
Season Win Line
minus
Prior Year Wins |
Overs |
Unders |
Ties |
Over % |
| -3 or lower |
0 |
7 |
1 |
0% |
| -2.5 |
6 |
4 |
0 |
60% |
| -2 |
2 |
6 |
2 |
25% |
| -1.5 |
7 |
10 |
0 |
41% |
| -1 |
14 |
8 |
5 |
64% |
| -0.5 |
8 |
12 |
0 |
40% |
| 0 |
7 |
14 |
1 |
33% |
| +0.5 |
10 |
9 |
0 |
53% |
| +1 |
12 |
8 |
3 |
60% |
| +1.5 |
12 |
9 |
0 |
57% |
| +2 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
50% |
| +2.5 |
5 |
4 |
0 |
56% |
| +3 or higher |
11 |
7 |
1 |
61% |
ANALYSIS: While we are still stuck with our limited sample size, once more the extremes of the table are interesting. Teams with season win lines of 3 games or more BELOW their previous year's win total have gone 7-0 as UNDER plays (including 2-0 in '02 as St. Louis and Chicago both fell well short of their season win number). Meanwhile teams with season win lines of 3 games or more ABOVE their previous year total are 11-7 as OVER plays (including 3-2 in 2002).
To put this another way, teams expected to improve by 3+ games have gone OVER this increased number at a 61% clip, while teams expected to decline by 3+ games have gone UNDER at a 100% rate (if we discount the tie). This suggests that the season win lines may perhaps not reflect the true levels of improvement/decline expected with these dramatic cases -- understandable when you think bettors are already having to come to terms with a line of say 9 wins on a team that was 6-10 (or worse) in the previous year!
Another way to establish the point made above is to note that teams projected to have the same or worse record (0 to -3 or below) are 61-44 (58%) as under bets all told, while teams expected to improve by at least one game are 46-33 (58%) as overs. In general then the line doesn't move far enough to represent the changes in the offseason.
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