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Angles
1) Preseason Records
We suggest you read the following article first:
The angle to watch for this time is teams with 0 preseason wins that are underdogs have gone 19-5 as away teams in the first four weeks. San Francisco was the only winless teams for this year's preseason, and covered in the opener last week (as mentioned in the week one angles column). The 49ers are away this week in New Orleans so play San Francisco +7.5
2) 0-1 versus 1-0 teams
With only one game played, teams are in two groups: 1-0 and 0-1 records. With these two groups you have four permutations for the potential matchups and here are how the records against the spread have been since 1992 (an eleven year sample):
Week Two Matchups
Home Team
Record |
Away Team
Record |
Home W-L
vs the Spread |
Home
Spread % |
| 0-1 |
0-1 |
13-27 |
33% |
| 0-1 |
1-0 |
23-25 |
48% |
| 1-0 |
0-1 |
25-22 |
53% |
| 1-0 |
1-0 |
18-19 |
49% |
The only thing to note in this table is that in a meeting of teams with 0-1 records the away team (presumably the dog in most cases) has covered at a high rate. This is similar to an angle we discovered in our Quantifying Motivation research from a few years back that showed in weeks 2 to 4 the away team has fared better in poor vs poor team matchups.
This week there are several 0-1 vs 0-1 pairings:
San Francisco at New Orleans...San Francisco +7.5
Carolina at Kansas City... Carolina +6
Buffalo at Oakland... Buffalo +3.5
Miami at Cincinnati... Miami +5
All in all of course, the TwoMinuteWarning philsophy is really anti-angle in a lot of ways -- our goal is to create better, more accurate numbers that have excellent predictive value going forward rather than relying on historical trends that might well be just random aberrations. Unfortunately creating predictive ratings is very hard to do for the early weeks.
Our advice is to wager lightly in the first month of the season.
Season-To-Date Results:
Record: 12-7 (all angles combined)
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Last week: 7-6 with the 'last season net points angle' although 6-4 if you went with the more stringent 'dual qualifier' rules. 1-0 with the winless preseason dogs angle, 4-1 with the 'go against bad preseason favorites' angle.
Archive
Week 1 Angles Column
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