If you are unfamiliar with the "Contrarian Bridgejumping" handicapping method, we suggest you read the following first:
Calculating the "Cumulative Spread Margin" stats involves totaling up how a team has performed in terms of net points against the lines on their games. For instance a team that won by eight while favored by three would accrue +5 points of CSM for the effort. On the other hand a team that lost by eight while favored by three would get a -11 CSM for that game.
We will also be following each team's CSM versus the over/under lines (perhaps this should be Cumulative Totals Margin -- "CTM") which are calculated in a similar fashion: if a team plays a game in which the scoring by both teams was 48 points and the over/under line was 43 this would count as a +5 CTM game for both teams.
The main research addresses using the CSM numbers during weeks five to twelve of the regular season. Historic results for the CSM 6+ difference plays in week two games is 53%.
The CTM (totals values) have not been shown to have corresponding predictiveness in the same fashion as the CSM (spread values) and are displayed without recommendation for their usage.
We are carrying out additional research on the CTM numbers and do expect to find worthwhile applications for them.
