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Gameplan Analyzer
This is an area of new research for us at TwoMinuteWarning. The original articles on this subject can be found through these links:
Playcalling Predictability
Playcalling League Tendencies
The following table shows the teams from best to worst for week one:
NFL Rush/Pass Predictability
| 2004 |
Offense
|
Defense
| Net
|
| Team |
Rush |
Pass |
All |
Rush |
Pass |
All |
O-D |
| MIN |
.580 |
.443 |
.509 |
.434 |
.727 |
.637 |
-.128 |
| ATL |
.537 |
.549 |
.543 |
.394 |
.734 |
.625 |
-.082 |
| GB |
.582 |
.550 |
.570 |
.475 |
.703 |
.650 |
-.080 |
| TEN |
.578 |
.582 |
.579 |
.436 |
.750 |
.658 |
-.079 |
| PHI |
.631 |
.530 |
.573 |
.475 |
.730 |
.637 |
-.064 |
| DEN |
.570 |
.558 |
.564 |
.484 |
.716 |
.611 |
-.047 |
| HOU |
.525 |
.586 |
.554 |
.511 |
.701 |
.599 |
-.045 |
| BUF |
.548 |
.633 |
.584 |
.495 |
.706 |
.628 |
-.044 |
| NE |
.554 |
.534 |
.540 |
.510 |
.670 |
.580 |
-.040 |
| SEA |
.618 |
.571 |
.598 |
.450 |
.716 |
.626 |
-.028 |
| ARI |
.426 |
.710 |
.593 |
.644 |
.573 |
.604 |
-.011 |
| WAS |
.555 |
.651 |
.592 |
.461 |
.653 |
.602 |
-.010 |
| CLE |
.534 |
.626 |
.576 |
.455 |
.664 |
.584 |
-.008 |
| CHI |
.513 |
.628 |
.574 |
.492 |
.673 |
.581 |
-.007 |
| PIT |
.578 |
.592 |
.584 |
.425 |
.678 |
.591 |
-.007 |
| CIN |
.479 |
.714 |
.596 |
.617 |
.577 |
.598 |
-.002 |
| NYJ |
.617 |
.577 |
.598 |
.479 |
.714 |
.596 |
+.002 |
| DET |
.492 |
.673 |
.581 |
.513 |
.628 |
.574 |
+.007 |
| OAK |
.425 |
.678 |
.591 |
.578 |
.592 |
.584 |
+.007 |
| BAL |
.455 |
.664 |
.584 |
.534 |
.626 |
.576 |
+.008 |
| TB |
.461 |
.653 |
.602 |
.555 |
.651 |
.592 |
+.010 |
| STL |
.644 |
.573 |
.604 |
.426 |
.710 |
.593 |
+.011 |
| NO |
.450 |
.716 |
.626 |
.618 |
.571 |
.598 |
+.028 |
| IND |
.510 |
.670 |
.580 |
.554 |
.534 |
.540 |
+.040 |
| JAX |
.495 |
.706 |
.628 |
.548 |
.633 |
.584 |
+.044 |
| SD |
.511 |
.701 |
.599 |
.525 |
.586 |
.554 |
+.045 |
| KAN |
.484 |
.716 |
.611 |
.570 |
.558 |
.564 |
+.047 |
| NYG |
.475 |
.730 |
.637 |
.631 |
.530 |
.573 |
+.064 |
| MIA |
.436 |
.750 |
.658 |
.578 |
.582 |
.579 |
+.079 |
| CAR |
.475 |
.703 |
.650 |
.582 |
.550 |
.570 |
+.080 |
| SF |
.394 |
.734 |
.625 |
.537 |
.549 |
.543 |
+.082 |
| DAL |
.434 |
.727 |
.637 |
.580 |
.443 |
.509 |
+.128 |
Then we use these numbers in a currently primitive form to make a line and compare to the actual spread. These predictions are to be treated as EXPERIMENTAL and we do not have enough data yet to expect strong predictive value.
| Match-up |
Predicted Margin |
Line |
Pick |
Value |
| CLE at DAL |
CLE by 10.6 |
-4 |
Cleveland |
14.6 |
| IND at TEN |
TEN by 14.9 |
-1.5 |
Tennessee |
13.4 |
| STL at ATL |
ATL by 12.3 |
-2.5 |
Atlanta |
9.8 |
| NE at ARI |
ARI by .1 |
+8 |
Arizona |
8.1 |
| MIN at PHI |
MIN by 3.4 |
-3.5 |
Minnesota |
6.9 |
| MIA at CIN |
CIN by 11.1 |
-4.5 |
Cincinnati |
6.6 |
| BUF at OAK |
BUF by 2.1 |
-3.5 |
Buffalo |
5.6 |
| HOU at DET |
HOU by 2.2 |
-3 |
Houston |
5.2 |
| DEN at JAX |
DEN by 6.1 |
+3 |
Denver |
3.1 |
| PIT at BAL |
PIT by -1.5 |
-4.5 |
Pittsburgh |
3.0 |
| NYJ at SD |
SDG by -1.3 |
+3 |
San Diego |
1.7 |
| SEA at TB |
TAM by -.8 |
+2.5 |
Tampa Bay |
1.7 |
| WAS at NYG |
WAS by 4.4 |
+3 |
Washington |
1.4 |
| SF at NO |
NOR by 8.4 |
-7 |
New Orleans |
1.4 |
| CHI at GB |
GNB by 10.3 |
-9 |
Green Bay |
1.3 |
| CAR at KAN |
KAN by 6.3 |
-5.5 |
Kansas City |
.8 |
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