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    Week Two
    Matchups



    Gameplan Analyzer

    This is an area of new research for us at TwoMinuteWarning. The original articles on this subject can be found through these links:

    Playcalling Predictability
    Playcalling League Tendencies

    The following table shows the teams from best to worst for week one:

    NFL Rush/Pass Predictability
    2004
    Offense
    Defense
    Net
    Team
    Rush
    Pass
    All
    Rush
    Pass
    All
    O-D
    MIN
    .580
    .443
    .509
    .434
    .727
    .637
    -.128
    ATL
    .537
    .549
    .543
    .394
    .734
    .625
    -.082
    GB
    .582
    .550
    .570
    .475
    .703
    .650
    -.080
    TEN
    .578
    .582
    .579
    .436
    .750
    .658
    -.079
    PHI
    .631
    .530
    .573
    .475
    .730
    .637
    -.064
    DEN
    .570
    .558
    .564
    .484
    .716
    .611
    -.047
    HOU
    .525
    .586
    .554
    .511
    .701
    .599
    -.045
    BUF
    .548
    .633
    .584
    .495
    .706
    .628
    -.044
    NE
    .554
    .534
    .540
    .510
    .670
    .580
    -.040
    SEA
    .618
    .571
    .598
    .450
    .716
    .626
    -.028
    ARI
    .426
    .710
    .593
    .644
    .573
    .604
    -.011
    WAS
    .555
    .651
    .592
    .461
    .653
    .602
    -.010
    CLE
    .534
    .626
    .576
    .455
    .664
    .584
    -.008
    CHI
    .513
    .628
    .574
    .492
    .673
    .581
    -.007
    PIT
    .578
    .592
    .584
    .425
    .678
    .591
    -.007
    CIN
    .479
    .714
    .596
    .617
    .577
    .598
    -.002
    NYJ
    .617
    .577
    .598
    .479
    .714
    .596
    +.002
    DET
    .492
    .673
    .581
    .513
    .628
    .574
    +.007
    OAK
    .425
    .678
    .591
    .578
    .592
    .584
    +.007
    BAL
    .455
    .664
    .584
    .534
    .626
    .576
    +.008
    TB
    .461
    .653
    .602
    .555
    .651
    .592
    +.010
    STL
    .644
    .573
    .604
    .426
    .710
    .593
    +.011
    NO
    .450
    .716
    .626
    .618
    .571
    .598
    +.028
    IND
    .510
    .670
    .580
    .554
    .534
    .540
    +.040
    JAX
    .495
    .706
    .628
    .548
    .633
    .584
    +.044
    SD
    .511
    .701
    .599
    .525
    .586
    .554
    +.045
    KAN
    .484
    .716
    .611
    .570
    .558
    .564
    +.047
    NYG
    .475
    .730
    .637
    .631
    .530
    .573
    +.064
    MIA
    .436
    .750
    .658
    .578
    .582
    .579
    +.079
    CAR
    .475
    .703
    .650
    .582
    .550
    .570
    +.080
    SF
    .394
    .734
    .625
    .537
    .549
    .543
    +.082
    DAL
    .434
    .727
    .637
    .580
    .443
    .509
    +.128

    Then we use these numbers in a currently primitive form to make a line and compare to the actual spread. These predictions are to be treated as EXPERIMENTAL and we do not have enough data yet to expect strong predictive value.

    Match-up
    Predicted Margin
    Line
    Pick
    Value
    CLE at DAL
    CLE by 10.6
    -4
    Cleveland
    14.6
    IND at TEN
    TEN by 14.9
    -1.5
    Tennessee
    13.4
    STL at ATL
    ATL by 12.3
    -2.5
    Atlanta
    9.8
    NE at ARI
    ARI by .1
    +8
    Arizona
    8.1
    MIN at PHI
    MIN by 3.4
    -3.5
    Minnesota
    6.9
    MIA at CIN
    CIN by 11.1
    -4.5
    Cincinnati
    6.6
    BUF at OAK
    BUF by 2.1
    -3.5
    Buffalo
    5.6
    HOU at DET
    HOU by 2.2
    -3
    Houston
    5.2
    DEN at JAX
    DEN by 6.1
    +3
    Denver
    3.1
    PIT at BAL
    PIT by -1.5
    -4.5
    Pittsburgh
    3.0
    NYJ at SD
    SDG by -1.3
    +3
    San Diego
    1.7
    SEA at TB
    TAM by -.8
    +2.5
    Tampa Bay
    1.7
    WAS at NYG
    WAS by 4.4
    +3
    Washington
    1.4
    SF at NO
    NOR by 8.4
    -7
    New Orleans
    1.4
    CHI at GB
    GNB by 10.3
    -9
    Green Bay
    1.3
    CAR at KAN
    KAN by 6.3
    -5.5
    Kansas City
    .8