Inside the 20
Red Zone Handicapping
Round three of the red zone handicapping experiment was another success. After a poor 2001 initial effort, the predicted score algorithm underwent a massive overhaul before the 2002 season. The results are pleasing:
2002 Red Zone Projected Score Overlays (week 5 on)
(Actual prior to game predictions)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
7 - 7 |
9 - 7 |
5 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
5 - 4 |
30 - 26 |
| HomeDogs |
4 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
2 - 5 |
3 - 2 |
16 - 10 |
26 - 18 |
| AwayFavs |
1 - 1 |
4 - 1 |
2 - 1 |
0 - 3 |
3 - 0 |
10 - 6 |
| AwayDogs |
6 - 7 |
7 - 4 |
10 - 6 |
11 - 8 |
11 - 10 |
45 - 35 |
| Favorites |
8 - 8 |
13 - 8 |
7 - 5 |
4 - 7 |
8 - 4 |
40 - 32 |
| Underdogs |
10 - 8 |
8 - 4 |
12 - 11 |
14 - 10 |
27 - 20 |
71 - 53 |
| Home Teams |
11 - 8 |
10 - 7 |
7 - 9 |
7 - 6 |
21 - 14 |
56 - 44 |
| Away Teams |
7 - 8 |
11 - 5 |
12 - 7 |
11 - 11 |
14 - 10 |
55 - 41 |
| ALL PICKS |
18 - 16 |
21 - 12 |
19 - 16 |
18 - 17 |
35 - 24 |
111 - 85 |
| WIN % |
53 % |
64 % |
54 % |
51 % |
59 % |
56 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
1 - 2 |
13 - 9 |
26 - 21 |
| Underdogs |
5 - 4 |
32 - 21 |
34 - 28 |
2003 Red Zone Projected Score Overlays (week 5 on)
(Actual prior to game predictions)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
6 - 5 |
8 - 4 |
3 - 5 |
3 - 4 |
8 - 9 |
28 - 27 |
| HomeDogs |
0 - 1 |
2 - 1 |
5 - 5 |
4 - 1 |
14 - 3 |
25 - 11 |
| AwayFavs |
2 - 1 |
3 - 4 |
4 - 0 |
0 - 2 |
3 - 3 |
12 - 10 |
| AwayDogs |
6 - 5 |
7 - 9 |
9 - 10 |
5 - 8 |
11 - 10 |
38 - 42 |
|
| Favorites |
8 - 6 |
11 - 8 |
7 - 5 |
3 - 6 |
11 - 12 |
40 - 37 |
| Underdogs |
6 - 6 |
9 - 10 |
14 - 15 |
9 - 9 |
25 - 13 |
63 - 53 |
| Home Teams |
6 - 6 |
10 - 5 |
8 - 10 |
7 - 5 |
22 - 12 |
53 - 38 |
| Away Teams |
8 - 6 |
10 - 13 |
13 - 10 |
5 - 10 |
14 - 13 |
50 - 52 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
14 - 12 |
20 - 18 |
21 - 20 |
12 - 15 |
36 - 25 |
103 - 90 |
| WIN % |
54 % |
53 % |
51 % |
44 % |
59 % |
53 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
2 - 2 |
9 - 12 |
29 - 23 |
| Underdogs |
8 - 6 |
28 - 22 |
27 - 25 |
The games with eight points or more of overlay value hit 59% in 2002, including the Super Bowl, and I highlighted the 8+ overlays for my plays in 2003 with another 59% year. All indications are that red zone stats are to be ignored when handicapping in the early weeks of the season.
The following represents the red zone stats for week two. I do not make any plays from this data. WAIT UNTIL WEEK FIVE.
WEEK TWO GAMES
San Francisco at New Orleans
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| SFO |
6.5 |
54 |
3:16 |
40% |
40% |
20% |
16 |
| NOR |
6.5 |
52 |
3:15 |
50% |
0% |
0% |
14 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| SFO |
8.6 |
46 |
2:25 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
| NOR |
10.0 |
50 |
2:10 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
San Francisco
New Orleans |
24
27 |
Comments:
Washington at NY Giants
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| WAS |
4.2 |
36 |
4:06 |
0% |
100% |
0% |
12 |
| NYG |
7.0 |
65 |
4:35 |
33% |
0% |
33% |
9 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| WAS |
0.0 |
0 |
0:00 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0 |
| NYG |
9.9 |
70 |
3:48 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
Washington
NY Giants |
23
3 |
Comments:
Denver at Jacksonville
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| DEN |
7.3 |
64 |
4:21 |
50% |
25% |
25% |
17 |
| JAC |
5.8 |
58 |
2:58 |
33% |
66% |
0% |
17 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| DEN |
8.7 |
44 |
2:30 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
| JAC |
4.5 |
27 |
2:40 |
33% |
33% |
33% |
13 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
Denver
Jacksonville |
14
29 |
Comments:
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| PIT |
6.1 |
49 |
4:22 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
| BAL |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
0 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| PIT |
5.1 |
67 |
6:43 |
0% |
100% |
0% |
12 |
| BAL |
6.5 |
46 |
3:55 |
50% |
50% |
0% |
20 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
Pittsburgh
Baltimore |
28
3 |
Comments:
St. Louis at Atlanta
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| STL |
7.9 |
79 |
5:23 |
33% |
66% |
0% |
17 |
| ATL |
8.6 |
46 |
2:25 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| STL |
6.3 |
45 |
4:02 |
50% |
50% |
0% |
20 |
| ATL |
6.5 |
55 |
3:16 |
40% |
40% |
20% |
16 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
St. Louis
Atlanta |
9
34 |
Comments:
Houston at Detroit
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| HOU |
6.6 |
54 |
4:15 |
40% |
40% |
20% |
16 |
| DET |
7.9 |
52 |
3:07 |
33% |
66% |
0% |
17 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| HOU |
7.7 |
54 |
3:43 |
66% |
33% |
0% |
23 |
| DET |
6.0 |
41 |
3:00 |
50% |
0% |
25% |
14 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
Houston
Detroit |
18
21 |
Comments:
Chicago at Green Bay
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| CHI |
6.0 |
41 |
3:00 |
50% |
0% |
25% |
14 |
| GNB |
6.0 |
56 |
4:29 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| CHI |
7.9 |
53 |
3:07 |
33% |
66% |
0% |
17 |
| GNB |
6.0 |
60 |
5:05 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
Chicago
Green Bay |
27
24 |
Comments:
Indianapolis at Tennessee
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| IND |
7.4 |
57 |
3:14 |
42% |
14% |
28% |
14 |
| TEN |
6.4 |
64 |
5:43 |
33% |
33% |
0% |
13 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| IND |
8.5 |
68 |
4:30 |
66% |
33% |
0% |
23 |
| TEN |
6.3 |
83 |
3:26 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
Indianapolis
Tennessee |
29
16 |
Comments:
Carolina at Kansas City
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| CAR |
6.0 |
60 |
5:05 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
| KAN |
8.7 |
43 |
2:30 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| CAR |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
0 |
| KAN |
7.3 |
64 |
4:21 |
50% |
25% |
25% |
17 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
Carolina
Kansas City |
31
14 |
Comments:
Seattle at Tampa Bay
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| SEA |
10.0 |
50 |
2:10 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
| TAM |
0.0 |
0 |
0:00 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| SEA |
6.5 |
52 |
3:15 |
50% |
0% |
0% |
14 |
| TAM |
4.2 |
37 |
4:06 |
0% |
100% |
0% |
12 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
Seattle
Tampa Bay |
23
6 |
Comments:
Cleveland at Dallas
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| CLE |
6.5 |
45 |
3:55 |
50% |
50% |
0% |
20 |
| DAL |
4.6 |
49 |
5:08 |
25% |
25% |
25% |
10 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| CLE |
0.0 |
0 |
0:00 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0 |
| DAL |
7.8 |
76 |
5:24 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
Cleveland
Dallas |
30
3 |
Comments:
Buffalo at Oakland
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| BUF |
4.5 |
27 |
2:40 |
33% |
33% |
33% |
13 |
| OAK |
5.1 |
67 |
6:43 |
0% |
100% |
0% |
12 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| BUF |
5.8 |
58 |
2:58 |
33% |
66% |
0% |
17 |
| OAK |
6.1 |
49 |
4:22 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
Buffalo
Oakland |
31
3 |
Comments:
New England at Arizona
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| NWE |
8.5 |
68 |
4:30 |
66% |
33% |
0% |
23 |
| ARI |
6.3 |
44 |
4:02 |
50% |
50% |
0% |
20 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| NWE |
7.4 |
58 |
3:14 |
42% |
14% |
28% |
14 |
| ARI |
7.9 |
79 |
5:23 |
33% |
66% |
0% |
17 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
New England
Arizona |
17
20 |
Comments:
NY Jets at San Diego
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| NYJ |
7.4 |
67 |
4:51 |
50% |
50% |
0% |
20 |
| SDG |
7.7 |
54 |
3:43 |
66% |
33% |
0% |
23 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| NYJ |
5.6 |
51 |
4:30 |
66% |
33% |
0% |
23 |
| SDG |
6.6 |
54 |
4:15 |
40% |
40% |
20% |
16 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
NY Jets
San Diego |
14
29 |
Comments:
Miami at Cincinnati
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| MIA |
6.3 |
83 |
3:26 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
| CIN |
5.6 |
51 |
4:30 |
66% |
33% |
0% |
23 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| MIA |
6.4 |
65 |
5:43 |
33% |
33% |
0% |
13 |
| CIN |
7.4 |
67 |
4:51 |
50% |
50% |
0% |
20 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
Miami
Cincinnati |
29
16 |
Comments:
Minnesota at Philadelphia
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| MIN |
7.8 |
75 |
5:24 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
| PHI |
9.9 |
69 |
3:48 |
100% |
0% |
0% |
28 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| MIN |
4.6 |
50 |
5:08 |
25% |
25% |
25% |
10 |
| PHI |
7.0 |
66 |
4:35 |
33% |
0% |
33% |
9 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
Minnesota
Philadelphia |
24
25 |
Comments:
Season-To-Date Results:
Plays: 0-0
|
|
Last week: no picks and wisely so as the RZ predictions using 2003 data finished 5-11.
Archive
Week 1 Inside the 20 Column
|
| 
