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Money-Line Analysis
This year's version of the money-line column will utilize both statistically-based tools for predicting straight-up winning percentages for teams, as well as individual picks from some of our key contributors.
The mechanical percentages and consequent selections in prior years were derived from UPM simulations run with a line of zero for all games (i.e. thereby delivering the straight-up expectations). The performance in the most recent two years has sadly not matched the record in the first two years:
UPM Money-Line 'Large Edge' (20%+ EV) Plays
| Year |
W-L |
Net Units |
| 2000 |
28-45 |
+20.3 units |
| 2001 |
23-37 |
+18.4 units |
| 2002 |
23-43 |
+1.4 units |
| 2003 |
30-64 |
-11.4 units |
*UPM M/L plays began in week five in each of the seasons.
While we strongly caution you from using the following data as the basis for money-line plays, here is a sample of what the UPM M/L output looks like:
The Ultimate Prediction Machine!
Money-Line Analysis
The Ultimate Prediction Machine simulates each NFL matchup five-thousand times
using our exclusive TwoMinuteWarning Drive Chart stats. We then
calculate an expected win percentage for each team and a fair value
money-line, which can be compared to the official money line odds.
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IMPORTANT: the the simulation results below are based on JUST ONE GAME from this season and have NOT been adjusted by changes in player personnel and coaching leading into 2004. Be Cautious with this info.
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NFL Week 2 , 2004
| Team |
Win % |
UPM M/L |
Money Line |
ML Pick |
| San Francisco |
62 % |
-169 |
+280 |
San Francisco |
| New Orleans |
37 % |
+169 |
-360 |
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| Washington |
84 % |
-549 |
-155 |
Washington |
| NY Giants |
15 % |
+549 |
+135 |
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| Denver |
58 % |
-138 |
-155 |
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| Jacksonville |
41 % |
+138 |
+135 |
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| Pittsburgh |
77 % |
-338 |
+170 |
Pittsburgh |
| Baltimore |
22 % |
+338 |
-200 |
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| St. Louis |
48 % |
+105 |
+115 |
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| Atlanta |
51 % |
-105 |
-135 |
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| Houston |
24 % |
+303 |
+135 |
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| Detroit |
75 % |
-303 |
-155 |
Detroit |
| Chicago |
22 % |
+336 |
+280 |
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| Green Bay |
77 % |
-336 |
-360 |
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| Indianapolis |
26 % |
+284 |
+100 |
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| Tennessee |
74 % |
-284 |
-120 |
Tennessee |
| Carolina |
43 % |
+132 |
+210 |
Carolina |
| Kansas City |
56 % |
-132 |
-270 |
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| Seattle |
86 % |
-646 |
-135 |
Seattle |
| Tampa Bay |
13 % |
+646 |
+115 |
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| Cleveland |
96 % |
-3025 |
+180 |
Cleveland |
| Dallas |
3 % |
+3025 |
-220 |
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| Buffalo |
43 % |
+129 |
+155 |
(Buffalo) |
| Oakland |
56 % |
-129 |
-175 |
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| New England |
63 % |
-177 |
-360 |
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| Arizona |
36 % |
+177 |
+280 |
Arizona |
| NY Jets |
41 % |
+142 |
-155 |
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| San Diego |
58 % |
-142 |
+135 |
San Diego |
| Miami |
54 % |
-120 |
+190 |
Miami |
| Cincinnati |
45 % |
+120 |
-240 |
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| Minnesota |
60 % |
-155 |
+155 |
Minnesota |
| Philadelphia |
39 % |
+155 |
-175 |
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Note -- the "picks" in parenthese are small edge (10%-19% EV), while the other picks are large edge. This is simply a sample of what's to come, and we WILL NOT COUNT the results of this week's picks for the UPM M/L tally.
Analyst Selections
In conjunction with the 'automated' picks, we will present the personal selections of several of our members. While each individual is free to come to their own conclusions as to which teams to play, the emphasis arises from their natural feature responsibilities, which are:
Alan - Injury Report column
Scott - Trends column and UPM/Full Story simulation engines
Craig - Inside the 20 column
Roland - DC/DCTO tools and Turnover column
Tim - 'Week That Was' feature and general commentary
We are also likely to have some additional analysts once some of the new features launch later in the season.
Week Two Money-Line Wagers
Scott: Pittsburgh +170
Roland: --
Tim: Pittsburgh +170, St. Louis +115, Minnesota +155, Houston +135
Craig: --
Alan: Jacksonville +135
Season-To-Date Results:
Plays: 3-1 (+3.6 units)
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Last week: Scott 1-0 (+1.9 units), Roland 1-1 (+0.3 units), Tim 1-0 (+1.3 units).
Archive
Week 1 Money-Line Column
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