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'On The Line'
This column will be the home for the official TwoMinuteWarning selections each week, to be published on Friday at noon Pacific Time throughout the season.
Week Two
Having seen one week of action, there's a clear tendency to over-react to the events that have transpired. Already people are significantly readjusting their mental hierarchy of the NFL teams, and there's often a particularly strong admiration for the teams demonstrating impressive offensive prowess from the outset, even though defense is often the key to long term success.
Thus it is no suprise that teams like Minnesota, Philadelphia, New England and Denver are leaping to the forefront as the public's "NFL Contenders" while notable squads like Tennessee and Seattle who put together solid week one efforts, albeit primarily defensive, are not quite received with the same enthusiasm.
Unfortunately, we know from research that our statistical measures are unreliable until we have at least another two weeks of play in the books, which means that handicapping this week's schedule is a tricky task. This is reflected most vividly perhaps in our 'Full Story' results where half the games come in at a 50% or 51% confidence level, and the high of the week is just 56%.
As eager as we are to jump in to the fray, especially in light of the nice week one, it's still time to practice the virtue of patience. We do have one play for the week, at a suggested small wager level of 1/2 unit.
Pittsburgh +4
The Steelers did succeed in getting a win in the opener, while the Ravens were stymied in Cleveland. What strikes us as notable from the pure stats side is that Pittsburgh's rushing defense was excellent against the Oakland RB Committee, which is ominous for a Baltimore team that is struggling to demonstrate passing authority, despite a huge-name RB to take on the ground attack. A similar approach by the 'Steel Curtain' is probably in the making then -- stop Lewis and force Boller to make plays. On the other hand, the Steelers showed a balanced offensive game with their new look, and while it's never easy to score on the Ravens, they may not need a lot of points to get the job done. The 'week that was' information aligns with this opinion, as does the UPM 'simple sim' which has a rather gaudy 84% view of Pittsburgh's chances.
Season-To-Date Results:
Plays: 4-1 (+1.45 units)
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Last week: 4-1 at 1/2 unit each wager size.
Archive
Week 1 'On the Line'
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