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Player/Team Connection
This is a new feature for TwoMinuteWarning.com to coincide with providing weekly player projections to Yahoo! Sports for their fantasy games (click on link for projections in preliminary form). While we were developing these forecasts it seemed a good idea to investigate how this data might also apply to predicting team performance.
As a first-year feature this is experimental and we are uncertain as to the ultimate predictive benefit of this information. Until we can get a sense that indeed the player projections are accurate for this purpose, you would be well served to rely on other features.
Week Two Game-by-Game projections
Without a deep understanding of how to recognize the advantage situations, the simplest approach initially will be to focus on the games with the largest difference between the projected score using player/team connection and the official spread. This week the five largest overlays in descending order are:
Cleveland +4
Minnesota +3.5
St. Louis +2.5
Buffalo +3.5
New England -8
San Francisco at New Orleans
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| San Francisco |
220 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
120 |
0.9 |
20.2 |
| New Orleans |
210 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
92 |
1.3 |
23.9 |
Overlay: San Francisco +7.5 (value = 3.8)
Washington at NY Giants
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| Washington |
205 |
1.7 |
0.3 |
128 |
0.8 |
21.5 |
| NY Giants |
197 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
110 |
1.1 |
16.3 |
Overlay: Washington -3 (value = 2.2)
Denver at Jacksonville
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| Denver |
201 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
133 |
0.9 |
22.9 |
| Jacksonville |
178 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
127 |
1.4 |
20.5 |
Overlay: Jacksonville +3 (value = 0.6)
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| Pittsburgh |
157 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
67 |
1.1 |
16.0 |
| Baltimore |
202 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
111 |
0.7 |
16.4 |
Overlay: Pittsburgh +4 (value = 3.6)
St. Louis at Atlanta
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| St. Louis |
261 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
152 |
0.9 |
24.6 |
| Atlanta |
180 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
133 |
1.3 |
22.0 |
Overlay: St. Louis +2.5 (value = 5.1)
Houston at Detroit
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| Houston |
195 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
106 |
1.2 |
19.0 |
| Detroit |
216 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
117 |
0.8 |
18.7 |
Overlay: Houston +3 (value = 3.3)
Chicago at Green Bay
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| Chicago |
219 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
87 |
0.9 |
15.6 |
| Green Bay |
196 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
146 |
1.2 |
25.1 |
Overlay: Green Bay -9 (value = 0.5)
Indianapolis at Tennessee
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| Indianapolis |
248 |
1.6 |
0.8 |
87 |
0.6 |
19.4 |
| Tennessee |
229 |
1.8 |
0.6 |
107 |
0.8 |
22.2 |
Overlay: Tennessee -1.5 (value = 1.3)
Carolina at Kansas City
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| Carolina |
244 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
150 |
1.3 |
24.3 |
| Kansas City |
206 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
154 |
2.1 |
28.1 |
Overlay: Carolina +6 (value = 2.2)
Seattle at Tampa Bay
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| Seattle |
185 |
1.4 |
0.8 |
131 |
0.7 |
18.5 |
| Tampa Bay |
214 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
74 |
0.7 |
18.2 |
Overlay: Tampa Bay +2.5 (value = 2.2)
Cleveland at Dallas
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| Cleveland |
179 |
1.7 |
0.6 |
88 |
0.9 |
21.4 |
| Dallas |
209 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
108 |
0.7 |
17.8 |
Overlay: Cleveland +4 (value = 7.6)
Buffalo at Oakland
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| Buffalo |
164 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
109 |
1.6 |
19.4 |
| Oakland |
182 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
77 |
0.6 |
17.8 |
Overlay: Buffalo +3.5 (value = 5.1)
New England at Arizona
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| New England |
288 |
2.3 |
1.1 |
104 |
0.8 |
26.4 |
| Arizona |
194 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
99 |
0.6 |
13.3 |
Overlay: New England -8 (value = 5.1)
NY Jets at San Diego
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| NY Jets |
243 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
131 |
1.2 |
25.5 |
| San Diego |
193 |
1.6 |
0.9 |
137 |
1.3 |
24.3 |
Overlay: San Diego +3 (value = 1.8)
Miami at Cincinnati
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| Miami |
195 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
87 |
0.6 |
17.4 |
| Cincinnati |
191 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
169 |
0.7 |
21.8 |
Overlay: Miami +5 (value = 0.6)
Minnesota at Philadelphia
| Matchup |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
TD |
Pass
Int |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
TD |
P/Team
Score |
| Minnesota |
254 |
2.2 |
0.6 |
164 |
1.6 |
31.6 |
| Philadelphia |
307 |
2.0 |
0.8 |
94 |
1.3 |
27.9 |
Overlay: Minnesota +3.5 (value = 7.2)
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