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Turnovers
For those unfamiliar with our turnover research, you may want to review the following prior articles for background on this theory:
Week Two games are not included in the data for the above research, so the first question is whether there has historically been any positive results against the spread playing as usual the WORSE net turnover team provided there is at least a half a turnover per game difference between the two teams?
- All Turnovers: 50.9%
- Net Fumbles: 53.6%
- Net Interceptions: 51.1%
Limited value then for this week from the turnovers. Nets shown below reflect Away number minus Home number.
At this point you have probably had enough theory and are ready to review the 2004 season matchups with the net turnovers per game data:
| Away |
Line |
Home |
Net
INT |
Net
FUM |
Net
T/O |
INT
Pick |
FUM
Pick |
T/O
Pick |
| San Francisco |
-7 |
New Orleans |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
- |
- |
| Washington |
+3 |
NY Giants |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
- |
- |
| Denver |
+3 |
Jacksonville |
1 |
-3 |
-2 |
JAC |
DEN |
DEN |
| Pittsburgh |
-4.5 |
Baltimore |
4 |
2 |
6 |
BAL |
BAL |
BAL |
| St. Louis |
-2.5 |
Atlanta |
-1 |
-3 |
-4 |
STL |
STL |
STL |
| Houston |
-3 |
Detroit |
-3 |
-4 |
-7 |
HOU |
HOU |
HOU |
| Chicago |
-9 |
Green Bay |
-2 |
-3 |
-5 |
CHI |
CHI |
CHI |
| Indianapolis |
-1.5 |
Tennessee |
-3 |
0 |
-3 |
IND |
- |
IND |
| Carolina |
-5.5 |
Kansas City |
-2 |
-2 |
-4 |
CAR |
CAR |
CAR |
| Seattle |
Off |
Tampa Bay |
1 |
1 |
2 |
TB |
TB |
TB |
| Cleveland |
-4 |
Dallas |
2 |
3 |
5 |
DAL |
DAL |
DAL |
| Buffalo |
-3.5 |
Oakland |
4 |
-1 |
3 |
OAK |
BUF |
OAK |
| New England |
+8 |
Arizona |
-1 |
-1 |
-2 |
NE |
NE |
NE |
| NY Jets |
+3 |
San Diego |
-2 |
-3 |
-5 |
NYJ |
NYJ |
NYJ |
| Miami |
-4.5 |
Cincinnati |
-2 |
1 |
-1 |
MIA |
CIN |
MIA |
| Minnesota |
-3.5 |
Philadelphia |
0 |
1 |
1 |
- |
PHI |
PHI |
Take your chances if you must, but we'd stress holding off until later in the season.
Season-To-Date Results:
Plays: 2-4
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Last week: 2-4 with selected plays, 3-6 with total Turnover plays, 2-2 with Fumble plays, 4-4 with Interception plays.
Archive
Week 1 Turnover Column
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