Inside the 20
Red Zone Handicapping
Round three of the red zone handicapping experiment was another success. After a poor 2001 initial effort, the predicted score algorithm underwent a massive overhaul before the 2002 season. The results are pleasing:
2002 Red Zone Projected Score Overlays (week 5 on)
(Actual prior to game predictions)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
7 - 7 |
9 - 7 |
5 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
5 - 4 |
30 - 26 |
| HomeDogs |
4 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
2 - 5 |
3 - 2 |
16 - 10 |
26 - 18 |
| AwayFavs |
1 - 1 |
4 - 1 |
2 - 1 |
0 - 3 |
3 - 0 |
10 - 6 |
| AwayDogs |
6 - 7 |
7 - 4 |
10 - 6 |
11 - 8 |
11 - 10 |
45 - 35 |
| Favorites |
8 - 8 |
13 - 8 |
7 - 5 |
4 - 7 |
8 - 4 |
40 - 32 |
| Underdogs |
10 - 8 |
8 - 4 |
12 - 11 |
14 - 10 |
27 - 20 |
71 - 53 |
| Home Teams |
11 - 8 |
10 - 7 |
7 - 9 |
7 - 6 |
21 - 14 |
56 - 44 |
| Away Teams |
7 - 8 |
11 - 5 |
12 - 7 |
11 - 11 |
14 - 10 |
55 - 41 |
| ALL PICKS |
18 - 16 |
21 - 12 |
19 - 16 |
18 - 17 |
35 - 24 |
111 - 85 |
| WIN % |
53 % |
64 % |
54 % |
51 % |
59 % |
56 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
1 - 2 |
13 - 9 |
26 - 21 |
| Underdogs |
5 - 4 |
32 - 21 |
34 - 28 |
2003 Red Zone Projected Score Overlays (week 5 on)
(Actual prior to game predictions)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
6 - 5 |
8 - 4 |
3 - 5 |
3 - 4 |
8 - 9 |
28 - 27 |
| HomeDogs |
0 - 1 |
2 - 1 |
5 - 5 |
4 - 1 |
14 - 3 |
25 - 11 |
| AwayFavs |
2 - 1 |
3 - 4 |
4 - 0 |
0 - 2 |
3 - 3 |
12 - 10 |
| AwayDogs |
6 - 5 |
7 - 9 |
9 - 10 |
5 - 8 |
11 - 10 |
38 - 42 |
|
| Favorites |
8 - 6 |
11 - 8 |
7 - 5 |
3 - 6 |
11 - 12 |
40 - 37 |
| Underdogs |
6 - 6 |
9 - 10 |
14 - 15 |
9 - 9 |
25 - 13 |
63 - 53 |
| Home Teams |
6 - 6 |
10 - 5 |
8 - 10 |
7 - 5 |
22 - 12 |
53 - 38 |
| Away Teams |
8 - 6 |
10 - 13 |
13 - 10 |
5 - 10 |
14 - 13 |
50 - 52 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
14 - 12 |
20 - 18 |
21 - 20 |
12 - 15 |
36 - 25 |
103 - 90 |
| WIN % |
54 % |
53 % |
51 % |
44 % |
59 % |
53 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
2 - 2 |
9 - 12 |
29 - 23 |
| Underdogs |
8 - 6 |
28 - 22 |
27 - 25 |
The games with eight points or more of overlay value hit 59% in 2002, including the Super Bowl, and I highlighted the 8+ overlays for my plays in 2003 with another 59% year.
WEEK TWENTY-ONE GAMES
New England at Philadelphia
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| NWE |
6.6 |
59 |
4:17 |
58% |
33% |
5% |
21 |
| PHI |
7.9 |
59 |
3:45 |
65% |
23% |
9% |
21 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
T/O |
Pts |
| NWE |
6.2 |
55 |
3:52 |
43% |
27% |
15% |
15 |
| PHI |
6.3 |
57 |
4:23 |
48% |
22% |
10% |
16 |
Projected Score (Drive Charts)
| Team |
SCORE |
New England
Philadelphia |
18
20 |
Comments: Red Zone pick is Philadelphia
Week Summary:
RZ Picks: Philadelphia +7
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