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    Super
    Bowl

    Drive Chart Overlay Summary

    Using our exclusive Drive Chart Stats we create a predicted score for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the actual line you can find games where there is a significant difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been underdogs with a 4+ overlay.

    Match-up
    Predicted Score
    TMW
    Line
    Line
    (home)
    Pick
    Overlay
    New England at Philadelphia
    NE 23-20
    +3
    +7
    Philadelphia
    4


    2004 Season Performance (Week 4 on)

    Overlay
    0 - 1.5
    2 - 3.5
    4 - 5.5
    6 - 7.5
    8+ Pts
    ALL
    HomeFavs
    8 - 8
    8 - 12
    6 - 3
    8 - 7
    7 - 10
    37 - 40
    HomeDogs
    2 - 0
    5 - 4
    5 - 1
    2 - 1
    2 - 3
    16 - 9
    AwayFavs
    4 - 5
    8 - 5
    6 - 2
    4 - 5
    2 - 1
    24 - 18
    AwayDogs
    4 - 5
    12 - 7
    7 - 3
    5 - 2
    7 - 8
    35 - 25
    Favorites
    12 - 13
    16 - 17
    12 - 5
    12 - 12
    9 - 11
    61 - 58
    Underdogs
    6 - 5
    17 - 11
    12 - 4
    7 - 3
    9 - 11
    51 - 34
    Home Teams
    10 - 8
    13 - 16
    11 - 4
    10 - 8
    9 - 13
    53 - 49
    Away Teams
    8 - 10
    20 - 12
    13 - 5
    9 - 7
    9 - 9
    59 - 43
    ALL PICKS
    18 - 18
    33 - 28
    24 - 9
    19 - 15
    18 - 22
    112 - 92
    WIN %
    50 %
    54 %
    73 %
    56 %
    45 %
    55 %

    Spread Range
    10+ points
    5 to 9.5
    0 to 4.5
    Favorites
    4 - 9
    33 - 28
    24 - 21
    Underdogs
    2 - 2
    16 - 9
    33 - 23

    Play-By-Play Overlay Summary

    Using our exclusive Play-By-Play ratings we create a predicted score for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the actual line you can find games where there is a significant difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been underdogs with a 4+ point overlay.

    Match-up
    Predicted Score
    TMW
    Line
    Line
    (home)
    Pick
    Overlay
    New England at Philadelphia
    PHI 22-21
    -1
    +7
    Philadelphia
    8


    2004 Season Performance (Week 4 on)

    Overlay
    0 - 1.5
    2 - 3.5
    4 - 5.5
    6 - 7.5
    8+ Pts
    ALL
    HomeFavs
    4 - 8
    9 - 4
    7 - 8
    2 - 7
    13 - 13
    35 - 40
    HomeDogs
    4 - 2
    2 - 1
    4 - 5
    1 - 3
    1 - 2
    12 - 13
    AwayFavs
    5 - 2
    4 - 9
    2 - 3
    1 - 2
    9 - 6
    21 - 22
    AwayDogs
    2 - 8
    12 - 9
    8 - 4
    4 - 4
    9 - 5
    35 - 30
    Favorites
    9 - 10
    13 - 13
    9 - 11
    3 - 9
    22 - 19
    56 - 62
    Underdogs
    6 - 10
    14 - 10
    12 - 9
    5 - 7
    10 - 7
    47 - 43
    Home Teams
    8 - 10
    11 - 5
    11 - 13
    3 - 10
    14 - 15
    47 - 53
    Away Teams
    7 - 10
    16 - 18
    10 - 7
    5 - 6
    18 - 11
    56 - 52
    ALL PICKS
    15 - 20
    27 - 23
    21 - 20
    8 - 16
    32 - 26
    103 - 105
    WIN %
    43 %
    54 %
    51 %
    33 %
    55 %
    50 %

    Spread Range
    10+ points
    5 to 9.5
    0 to 4.5
    Favorites
    3 - 10
    32 - 31
    21 - 21
    Underdogs
    2 - 4
    15 - 12
    30 - 27