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Square Money
Believe what you like but let me give you the facts: the public is on the wrong side more often than not. In extreme lopsided cases where 75% of more of the public goes one way then you have a great "go against" play.
A number of places track picks and you can look at these sources. One good source for the "common joe" view on things is the Yahoo pro football pick'em pool games. There are four different versions:
1) straight-up no confidence weight
2) spread
3) straight-up with confidence
4) spread with confidence
You can't find out through them who is taking what for this week but you can see previous Pick Distributions.
Public 'consensus' Regular Season spread picks
| Category |
50 - 59% |
60 - 64% |
65 - 69% |
70 - 74% |
75% + up |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
21 - 33 |
13 - 18 |
11 - 14 |
4 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
54 - 72 |
| HomeDogs |
4 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
5 - 2 |
| AwayFavs |
3 - 4 |
4 - 7 |
9 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
20 - 14 |
41 - 34 |
| AwayDogs |
9 - 10 |
4 - 6 |
4 - 3 |
2 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
19 - 21 |
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| Favorites |
24 - 37 |
17 - 25 |
20 - 19 |
9 - 8 |
25 - 17 |
95 - 106 |
| Underdogs |
13 - 12 |
5 - 6 |
4 - 3 |
2 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
24 - 23 |
| Home Teams |
25 - 35 |
14 - 18 |
11 - 14 |
4 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
59 - 74 |
| Away Teams |
12 - 14 |
8 - 13 |
13 - 8 |
7 - 6 |
20 - 14 |
60 - 55 |
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| ALL PICKS |
37 - 49 |
22 - 31 |
24 - 22 |
11 - 10 |
25 - 17 |
119 - 129 |
| WIN % |
43 % |
42 % |
52 % |
52 % |
60 % |
48 % |
| Spread Range |
7.5+ points |
3.5 to 7 |
0 to 3 |
| Favorites |
21 - 29 |
50 - 46 |
24 - 31 |
| Underdogs |
2 - 3 |
3 - 5 |
19 - 15 |
Public lost on the year, but did win with their super one sided picks. The year of the Road Favorites.
Square Money/Smart Money Picks
PUBLIC LOVE:
New England well liked but Philadelphia getting that many points makes some of the public unsure.
Smart Money: nothing on the sides, prop bets may have some hope.
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