We've provided a number of research articles that look at some tips on playing the team season win over/under bets. Now we will take some of these methods and use them to fashion a sort of "consensus" selection for teams heading into the 2004 season. The tips we will be charting include:
- Win History -- the historical over/under rates of a certain prior year win number compared to the season number set for the team
- Line History -- the historical over/under rates of a certain line number
- Line minus Wins -- the historical over/under rates taking the Line minus prior year wins
- Bounce Effect -- the historical over/under rates of teams that had 3 more or fewer wins in the last season than the year before
- Draft Picks -- the historical over/under rates based on a team's number of first round picks
- Win Expectancy -- based on historical over/under rates for a certain line and prior year win total
- Preseason Results -- preseason won-lost records can be good indicators of regular season performance
In the 2001 campaign our season win selections were 8-4, in 2002 they went 4-4, while last season they were 3-2 (for +1.1 units). There are grounds for thinking that some of the strong metrics for projecting team wins are now being more fully integrated into the lines -- for instance there has been a long standing trend that teams with the very highest number of wins to cover have generally been solid under plays. However, the top end lines are nudging downwards such that it will be hard to find 11 lines and higher where they were once commonplace.
|
Year
|
10.5 or higher
team win lines
|
5.5 or lower
team win lines
|
| 1997 |
4 |
0 |
| 1998 |
4 |
4 |
| 1999 |
6 |
6 |
| 2000 |
6 |
3 |
|
2001
|
6
|
5
|
|
2002
|
3
|
2
|
|
2003
|
2
|
4
|
|
2004
|
3
|
3
|
Nevertheless, team win bets can still be viewed as a profitable wagering opportunity, albeit your money will be tied up for the season! The following chart lists each team and which research findings appear to provide strong evidence one way or the other. The lines listed represent a consensus of some of the leading offshore casino numbers, with the relative +/- betting number associated with the "over" play.
It should be noted that shopping for the best available line is always a smart strategy but particularly so with season win bets where you can find very significant differences!
| Team |
1999
Wins |
2000
Wins |
2001
Wins |
2002
Wins |
2003
Wins |
Line |
Price |
Line
Hist |
Line
v Wins |
Bounce
Effect |
Draft
Picks |
Win
Exp. |
Pre
Seas. |
Consensus |
| Arizona |
6 |
3 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
5.5 |
130 |
over |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Atlanta |
5 |
4 |
7 |
9.5 |
5 |
8.5 |
-120 |
|
over |
over |
|
|
|
|
| Baltimore |
8 |
12 |
10 |
7 |
10 |
9.5 |
115 |
|
|
under |
under |
|
|
Under -125 |
| Buffalo |
11 |
8 |
3 |
8 |
6 |
7.5 |
-125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Carolina |
8 |
7 |
1 |
7 |
11 |
8.5 |
-110 |
|
|
under |
|
over |
|
|
| Chicago |
6 |
5 |
13 |
4 |
7 |
6.5 |
105 |
|
|
under |
|
under |
under |
|
| Cincinnati |
4 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
8 |
7.5 |
-105 |
|
|
under |
|
|
under |
|
| Cleveland |
2 |
3 |
7 |
9 |
5 |
6.5 |
-135 |
|
|
over |
|
|
|
|
| Dallas |
8 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
10 |
8.5 |
-115 |
|
|
under |
under |
under |
|
|
| Denver |
6 |
11 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
-140 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Detroit |
8 |
9 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
6.5 |
-170 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Green Bay |
8 |
9 |
12 |
12 |
10 |
9 |
-105 |
|
|
|
|
|
under |
|
| Houston |
|
|
|
4 |
5 |
6.5 |
-110 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Indianapolis |
13 |
10 |
6 |
10 |
12 |
10.5 |
120 |
under |
|
|
under |
under |
|
|
| Jacksonville |
14 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
7.5 |
-145 |
|
over |
|
|
|
|
|
| Kansas City |
9 |
7 |
6 |
8 |
13 |
10 |
-125 |
|
under |
under |
under |
|
under |
Under -105 |
| Miami |
9 |
11 |
11 |
9 |
10 |
7.5 |
-120 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Minnesota |
10 |
11 |
5 |
6 |
9 |
9 |
100 |
|
|
under |
|
over |
under |
|
| N.Y. Giants |
7 |
12 |
7 |
10 |
4 |
6.5 |
135 |
|
over |
over |
|
over |
|
Over +135 |
| N.Y. Jets |
8 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
6 |
8.5 |
-135 |
|
over |
over |
|
|
|
|
| New England |
8 |
5 |
11 |
9 |
14 |
10.5 |
-120 |
under |
under |
under |
|
|
under |
|
| New Orleans |
3 |
10 |
7 |
9 |
8 |
7.5 |
-140 |
|
|
|
|
|
under |
|
| Oakland |
8 |
12 |
10 |
11 |
4 |
7.5 |
-105 |
|
over |
over |
|
|
|
|
| Philadelphia |
5 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
12 |
10.5 |
-110 |
under |
|
|
|
under |
under |
|
| Pittsburgh |
6 |
9 |
13 |
10.5 |
6 |
7.5 |
-110 |
|
|
over |
|
|
|
|
| San Diego |
8 |
1 |
5 |
8 |
4 |
4.5 |
-120 |
over |
|
over |
|
over |
|
Over -120 |
| San Francisco |
4 |
6 |
12 |
10 |
7 |
5.5 |
130 |
over |
|
over |
|
|
under |
|
| Seattle |
9 |
6 |
9 |
7 |
10 |
9.5 |
-125 |
|
|
under |
|
|
|
|
| St. Louis |
13 |
10 |
14 |
7 |
12 |
9.5 |
140 |
|
|
under |
|
|
under |
|
| Tampa Bay |
11 |
10 |
9 |
12 |
7 |
9.5 |
135 |
|
over |
over |
|
|
over |
Over +135 |
| Tennessee |
13 |
13 |
7 |
11 |
12 |
9.5 |
105 |
|
|
|
under |
|
|
|
| Washington |
10 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
5 |
9 |
105 |
|
over |
|
|
|
|
|
ANALYSIS: All of the above is based on following historical patterns with regards to this bet, which is always a somewhat shaky starting point.
We isolated those teams where there were a preponderance of factors pointing the same way with little if any conflicting information. Whether this is the best approach is certainly arguable. Again, in the interest of full disclosure, we will mention that our results from 2001 through 2003 with a similar type of analysis is 15-10 -- hardly a convincing sample size.
As the patterns revealed in our research have shown, the best plan has often been to go Under on select high win totals (eg the expected good teams) and go Over on select low totals (the expected bad teams). Part of this theory is that injuries can quickly take their toll on even the best squad (who are often facing much tougher schedules than their previous season) while the lowly teams have an easier schedule and can benefit by "things going wrong" from the teams above them. As alluded to above though, the high lines are coming down and consequently offering less value playing under the presumed top sides.
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