Season Win Totals Part IV:
More accurate expectation stats
See also:
Season Win Totals, part I
Season Win Totals, part II
Season Win Totals, part III
In the first article we posted this season on the subject of predicting season win totals, we looked at how often a team with a certain number of prior season wins reached given win total thresholds.
That's all well and good, but as we mentioned what you really also need to consider is what the line set for the team has been in relation to these historical average performances. Hence in the table below we break out the win levels (so 1 win last season, 2 wins, etc) by the line, rounding down such that when we list a line of '8' it actually represents 8 and 8.5 season over/under numbers.
The data below includes an average change in wins (prior season to current season), and the percentage at which teams surpassed win milestones. We've also highlighted the highest win point at which teams in that category reached a milestone 50% of the time.
[Data includes 1996 to 2003 seasons]
Wins
LY |
S/W
Line |
# |
Ave Net |
5+ Wins |
6+ Wins |
7+ Wins |
8+ Wins |
9+ Wins |
10+ Wins |
11+ Wins |
| 1 |
5 |
1 |
+6.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 1 |
6 |
2 |
+6.0 |
100% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
0% |
0% |
| 2 |
5 |
2 |
+3.5 |
50% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 2 |
6 |
1 |
+1.0 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 3 |
4 |
1 |
+4.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 3 |
5 |
5 |
+1.8 |
60% |
20% |
20% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 3 |
6 |
6 |
+4.5 |
83% |
83% |
66% |
50% |
33% |
33% |
16% |
| 4 |
4 |
1 |
+2.0 |
100% |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 4 |
5 |
10 |
+2.6 |
80% |
60% |
40% |
20% |
20% |
10% |
10% |
| 4 |
6 |
3 |
+3.7 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
66% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 4 |
7 |
2 |
+3.5 |
100% |
100% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
0% |
0% |
| 5 |
5 |
3 |
+0.7 |
66% |
33% |
33% |
33% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 5 |
6 |
5 |
+3.4 |
80% |
80% |
60% |
60% |
40% |
40% |
40% |
| 5 |
7 |
6 |
+2.0 |
66% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
33% |
33% |
16% |
| 5 |
8 |
2 |
+2.5 |
100% |
100% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
0% |
0% |
| 6 |
5 |
1 |
+0.0 |
100% |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 6 |
6 |
7 |
+0.1 |
71% |
42% |
42% |
42% |
28% |
14% |
0% |
| 6 |
7 |
9 |
+1.3 |
77% |
77% |
55% |
55% |
44% |
33% |
11% |
| 6 |
8 |
5 |
+2.6 |
100% |
80% |
80% |
80% |
80% |
40% |
0% |
| 6 |
9 |
2 |
+4.5 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
50% |
| 6 |
10 |
1 |
+5.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| 7 |
5 |
1 |
+5.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| 7 |
6 |
5 |
-2.2 |
60% |
40% |
20% |
20% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 7 |
7 |
15 |
+1.0 |
80% |
73% |
60% |
60% |
53% |
40% |
20% |
| 7 |
8 |
7 |
+0.6 |
85% |
85% |
57% |
57% |
42% |
14% |
14% |
| 7 |
9 |
2 |
+1.0 |
50% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
| 8 |
6 |
2 |
-3.5 |
50% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 8 |
7 |
6 |
-2.0 |
66% |
50% |
50% |
33% |
16% |
0% |
0% |
| 8 |
8 |
14 |
+0.0 |
92% |
85% |
78% |
50% |
35% |
14% |
14% |
| 8 |
9 |
10 |
+1.6 |
100% |
100% |
90% |
80% |
70% |
40% |
40% |
| 9 |
7 |
2 |
+3.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| 9 |
8 |
25 |
-1.0 |
88% |
76% |
64% |
52% |
36% |
28% |
24% |
| 9 |
9 |
5 |
+1.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
80% |
80% |
20% |
| 10 |
7 |
3 |
-1.3 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
66% |
33% |
33% |
33% |
| 10 |
8 |
8 |
-2.6 |
87% |
75% |
62% |
50% |
25% |
12% |
12% |
| 10 |
9 |
10 |
-1.5 |
100% |
100% |
70% |
60% |
50% |
50% |
20% |
| 10 |
10 |
4 |
-1.8 |
100% |
100% |
75% |
75% |
75% |
0% |
0% |
| 10 |
11 |
2 |
+1.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
| 11 |
8 |
4 |
-2.0 |
100% |
75% |
75% |
75% |
75% |
50% |
50% |
| 11 |
9 |
5 |
-2.6 |
80% |
80% |
80% |
60% |
60% |
40% |
20% |
| 11 |
10 |
7 |
-0.7 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
71% |
71% |
42% |
| 11 |
11 |
1 |
+3.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| 11 |
12 |
1 |
+1.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| 12 |
8 |
1 |
-5.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 12 |
9 |
1 |
-2.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
0% |
| 12 |
10 |
10 |
-3.0 |
90% |
90% |
90% |
70% |
60% |
60% |
20% |
| 12 |
11 |
2 |
+1.5 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| 13 |
8 |
1 |
-9.0 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 13 |
9 |
1 |
-4.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
0% |
0% |
| 13 |
10 |
6 |
-3.1 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
66% |
66% |
66% |
33% |
| 13 |
11 |
3 |
-2.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
66% |
| 13 |
12 |
1 |
+0.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| 14 |
10 |
2 |
-8.5 |
100% |
50% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 14 |
11 |
2 |
-7.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 15 |
11 |
1 |
-5.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
0% |
*Records only include regular season wins
ANALYSIS:
It's a big table with lots of data, but pay close attention to the sample size (the # column) for any given row, since these percentage milestones made can frequently be based on just 1 or 2 cases over the last eight years.
Foraging for some of the more significant conclusions to draw from this data yields the following:
- 7 win teams with a line of 7 or 7.5 have hit 8 wins 60% of the time (#=15)
- 4 win teams with a line of 5 or 5.5 have hit 6 wins 60% of the time (#=10)
- 3 win teams with a line of 6 or 6.5 have hit 7 wins 66% of the time (#=6)
Not much there with any real usefulness since a couple of new instances going the other way destroys what little deviation from 50% exists to begin with. Consequently the real message to take away is that the lines are reasonably well set on a large scale basis, and this approach is unlikely to yield strong results. Instead focus on less well assessed information for season win picking.
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