Does T/O Difference still win in today's NFL?
To refresh everyone's memory, the "T/O Difference" methodology involves looking at
the net turnovers on the year for each team in a matchup and playing the team with the WORSE net turnovers provided their record was at least 1/2 turnover per game poorer than their opponent. For instance if Team A is -1.5 turnovers a game and Team B is +0.5 turnovers then the strategy would call for playing Team A since they have the worse record and in this case it's 2.0 turnovers per game different -- far more than the 0.5 cutoff. For the full text of the original article read the original Turnover Difference article).
We've been bringing people's attention to this approach since around 1993, and the historical success is flat out brilliant: the table below includes all the games played from week 5 through week 12 (the heart of the season) from 1983-2000:
Turnover Difference results, 1983-2000 (Wks 5-12)
| T/O Diff |
0.5 - 0.9 |
1.0 - 1.4 |
1.5 - 1.9 |
2.0 - 2.4 |
2.5+ Diff |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
87 - 68 |
50 - 29 |
28 - 16 |
11 - 11 |
9 - 9 |
185 - 133 |
| HomeDogs |
72 - 54 |
51 - 41 |
38 - 21 |
17 - 17 |
27 - 20 |
205 - 153 |
| AwayFavs |
28 - 29 |
13 - 8 |
11 - 8 |
4 - 2 |
2 - 0 |
58 - 47 |
| AwayDogs |
129 - 89 |
78 - 76 |
45 - 42 |
28 - 22 |
24 - 14 |
304 - 243 |
|
| Favorites |
115 - 97 |
63 - 37 |
39 - 24 |
15 - 13 |
11 - 9 |
243 - 180 |
| Underdogs |
201 - 143 |
129 - 117 |
83 - 63 |
45 - 39 |
51 - 34 |
509 - 396 |
| Home Teams |
159 - 122 |
101 - 70 |
66 - 37 |
28 - 28 |
36 - 29 |
390 - 286 |
| Away Teams |
157 - 118 |
91 - 84 |
56 - 50 |
32 - 24 |
26 - 14 |
362 - 290 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
316 - 240 |
192 - 154 |
122 - 87 |
60 - 52 |
62 - 43 |
752 - 576 |
| WIN % |
57 % |
55 % |
58 % |
54 % |
59 % |
57 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
16 - 13 |
66 - 60 |
161 - 107 |
| Underdogs |
89 - 74 |
209 - 145 |
211 - 177 |
ANALYSIS: That's a pretty impressive record for 18 years of play! The overall percentage works out to be 56.6% before the rounding up, but that is still a mighty fine mark for one-factor handicapping! Of course we did limit the timeframe to weeks 5 thru 12 and the results from week 13 on are strictly in 50/50 territory, which raises the question of whether there is a legitimate reason to assume the system fades in the final stages of the regular season and playoffs. One idea might be that the method is based on viewing the turnovers as having a lot of luck involved (eg a team is under-rated because it has been unlucky and fumbled a lot). After a certain point however you could argue that luck would seem a less likely cause! ~ for half a season any team can have some bad breaks...a team with a whole season of misfortune is simply bad.
Of particular interest in the breakouts are small favorites (0 to 4.5 pts) with the seeming turnover disadvantage, and mid-sized underdogs (5 to 9.5 pts) that have likewise been "turnover challenged" coming into the game.
The next concern is "what have you done for me lately?" -- and here are the results from 2001-2003 (with one note: we've changed our spread ranges to better reflect the tightening of the line over the last few seasons)
Turnover Difference results, 2001-2003 (Wks 5-12)
| Category |
0.5 - 0.9 |
1.0 - 1.4 |
1.5 - 1.9 |
2.0 - 2.4 |
2.5+ Diff |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
14 - 12 |
7 - 6 |
6 - 3 |
0 - 1 |
1 - 2 |
28 - 24 |
| HomeDogs |
11 - 13 |
15 - 5 |
7 - 1 |
3 - 1 |
6 - 2 |
42 - 22 |
| AwayFavs |
3 - 3 |
4 - 3 |
2 - 1 |
1 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
10 - 9 |
| AwayDogs |
22 - 11 |
18 - 12 |
8 - 7 |
4 - 9 |
3 - 1 |
55 - 40 |
|
| Favorites |
17 - 15 |
11 - 9 |
8 - 4 |
1 - 2 |
1 - 3 |
38 - 33 |
| Underdogs |
33 - 24 |
33 - 17 |
15 - 8 |
7 - 10 |
9 - 3 |
97 - 62 |
| Home Teams |
25 - 25 |
22 - 11 |
13 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
7 - 4 |
70 - 46 |
| Away Teams |
25 - 14 |
22 - 15 |
10 - 8 |
5 - 10 |
3 - 2 |
65 - 49 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
50 - 39 |
44 - 26 |
23 - 12 |
8 - 12 |
10 - 6 |
135 - 95 |
| WIN % |
56 % |
63 % |
66 % |
40 % |
63 % |
59 % |
| Spread Range |
7.5+ points |
3.5 to 7 |
0 to 3 |
| Favorites |
5 - 7 |
12 - 10 |
21 - 16 |
| Underdogs |
27 - 10 |
44 - 37 |
26 - 15 |
Ride on Cowboy! The Turnover Difference has been dynamite in recent performance, actually beating the long term results. Of course a quick glance at the detailed splits tells you it's a dog-driven achievement, with home underdogs a whopping 42-22 (66%) when they get the T/O difference nod.
With the revised spread ranges we see that underdogs getting more than a touchdown have been a ridiculous 27-10 or 73% against the line. Using the old ranges and the two "prime zones" mentioned in the 1983-2000 history, you'd go 45-25 with the former mid-range dogs (+5 to +9.5) and 28-19 with the small favorites (-1 to -4.5).
Parting Words:
The Turnover Difference has been by and large immune to the changing nature of the NFL and the greater sophistication of linemakers and bettors alike, which has sunk numerous other previously effective handicapping methods. It remains one of the core handicapping tools, albeit for only that middle part of the regular season.
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