Using the "Week That Was" data, part III
Part I - 'Wrong Team Won'
Part II - Close Games
For several seasons now we have been publishing the weekly actual "matchup stats" for the games just played, including such data points as Play Success Rates, Big Gains, Average Yards per Play (counting penalties), and overall Effectiveness.
Sample 'Week That Was' game report from the 2003 season
Green Bay at Detroit
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Green Bay |
41% |
6% |
3.3 |
76 |
47% |
10% |
6.6 |
80 |
21 |
| Detroit |
43% |
6% |
3.0 |
68 |
32% |
3% |
4.2 |
48 |
3 |
THE WRONG TEAM WON! According to the linemakers the Pack were anywhere between a 6 1/2 and 7 point favorite. Sure didn't play like it to me, but da numbers say that the Green Men were actually the better team. Lucky Lions.
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The question becomes whether the charts above can provide any predictive power for upcoming games in assessing how teams are likely to fare. On our third pass through this potential handicapping tool, we will focus on the rushing and passing stats.
Case Study #5:
Teams off a poor offensive game
The following data shows the spread results of teams in their next game following a performance where they earned a rushing EFR of 55 or less, and a passing EFR of 65 or less.
| 55 - Rush EFR |
1-2 |
3-6 |
7-9 |
10-13 |
14+ Diff |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
3 - 4 |
5 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
3 - 4 |
10 - 11 |
22 - 21 |
| HomeDogs |
1 - 3 |
1 - 5 |
1 - 1 |
6 - 5 |
10 - 12 |
19 - 26 |
| AwayFavs |
1 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
1 - 4 |
4 - 7 |
| AwayDogs |
3 - 4 |
4 - 5 |
0 - 1 |
0 - 6 |
15 - 17 |
22 - 33 |
| Favorites |
4 - 5 |
5 - 1 |
1 - 2 |
5 - 5 |
11 - 15 |
26 - 28 |
| Underdogs |
4 - 7 |
5 - 10 |
1 - 2 |
6 - 11 |
25 - 29 |
41 - 59 |
| Home Teams |
4 - 7 |
6 - 5 |
2 - 3 |
9 - 9 |
20 - 23 |
41 - 47 |
| Away Teams |
4 - 5 |
4 - 6 |
0 - 1 |
2 - 7 |
16 - 21 |
26 - 40 |
| ALL PICKS |
8 - 12 |
10 - 11 |
2 - 4 |
11 - 16 |
36 - 44 |
67 - 87 |
| WIN % |
40 % |
48 % |
33 % |
41 % |
45 % |
44 % |
| Spread Range |
7.5+ pts |
3.5 to 7 |
0 to 3 |
| Favorites |
6 - 3 |
9 - 15 |
11 - 10 |
| Underdogs |
18 - 25 |
13 - 23 |
10 - 11 |
Analysis:
Underdogs coming back from a bad offensive effort have not turned it around, compiling a meager 41-59 record, and a 31-48 mark when getting more than a field goal. Away teams were generally dreadful in such circumstances.
Case Study #6:
Teams off a strong offensive game
The following data shows the performance of such teams in their next game, when they accumulated a 100+ rushing EFR and 100+ passing EFR.
| Rush EFR - 100 |
1-2 |
3-6 |
7-9 |
10-13 |
14+ Diff |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
11 - 7 |
2 - 9 |
3 - 0 |
2 - 8 |
16 - 18 |
34 - 42 |
| HomeDogs |
4 - 2 |
1 - 3 |
1 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
5 - 4 |
15 - 9 |
| AwayFavs |
2 - 7 |
2 - 5 |
4 - 1 |
0 - 2 |
11 - 17 |
19 - 32 |
| AwayDogs |
5 - 3 |
8 - 3 |
5 - 4 |
8 - 5 |
10 - 8 |
36 - 23 |
| Favorites |
13 - 14 |
4 - 14 |
7 - 1 |
2 - 10 |
27 - 35 |
53 - 74 |
| Underdogs |
9 - 5 |
9 - 6 |
6 - 4 |
12 - 5 |
15 - 12 |
51 - 32 |
| Home Teams |
15 - 9 |
3 - 12 |
4 - 0 |
6 - 8 |
21 - 22 |
49 - 51 |
| Away Teams |
7 - 10 |
10 - 8 |
9 - 5 |
8 - 7 |
21 - 25 |
55 - 55 |
| ALL PICKS |
22 - 19 |
13 - 20 |
13 - 5 |
14 - 15 |
42 - 47 |
104 - 106 |
| WIN % |
54 % |
39 % |
72 % |
48 % |
47 % |
50 % |
| Spread Range |
7.5+ pts |
3.5 to 7 |
0 to 3 |
| Favorites |
17 - 20 |
21 - 33 |
15 - 21 |
| Underdogs |
9 - 4 |
16 - 14 |
26 - 14 |
Analysis:
An interesting schism -- teams coming back from good offensive efforts as favorites were a lousy 53-74 (42%), but a solid 51-32 (61%) as underdogs. Could it be that an excellent offensive game can make a team complacent when expected to win the next time out, but fired up if they are expected to lose?
Case Study #7:
Teams off a poor defensive game
The following data shows the performance of such teams in their next game, when they allowed a 100+ rushing EFR and 100+ passing EFR to their opponents.
| dRush EFR - 100 |
1-2 |
3-6 |
7-9 |
10-13 |
14+ Diff |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
7 - 3 |
4 - 1 |
0 - 2 |
4 - 8 |
17 - 18 |
32 - 32 |
| HomeDogs |
8 - 1 |
5 - 3 |
4 - 3 |
1 - 3 |
6 - 8 |
24 - 18 |
| AwayFavs |
1 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
1 - 3 |
1 - 1 |
4 - 11 |
10 - 23 |
| AwayDogs |
9 - 6 |
6 - 7 |
4 - 1 |
4 - 7 |
10 - 12 |
33 - 33 |
| Favorites |
8 - 8 |
7 - 4 |
1 - 5 |
5 - 9 |
21 - 29 |
42 - 55 |
| Underdogs |
17 - 7 |
11 - 10 |
8 - 4 |
5 - 10 |
16 - 20 |
57 - 51 |
| Home Teams |
15 - 4 |
9 - 4 |
4 - 5 |
5 - 11 |
23 - 26 |
56 - 50 |
| Away Teams |
10 - 11 |
9 - 10 |
5 - 4 |
5 - 8 |
14 - 23 |
43 - 56 |
| ALL PICKS |
25 - 15 |
18 - 14 |
9 - 9 |
10 - 19 |
37 - 49 |
99 - 106 |
| WIN % |
63 % |
56 % |
50 % |
34 % |
43 % |
48 % |
| Spread Range |
7.5+ pts |
3.5 to 7 |
0 to 3 |
| Favorites |
10 - 11 |
21 - 22 |
11 - 22 |
| Underdogs |
12 - 18 |
25 - 21 |
20 - 12 |
Analysis:
Not so much to note here, as with the exception of away favorites (miserable 10-23), the splits are without predictive value historically.
Case Study #8:
Teams off a good defensive game
The following data shows the performance of such teams in their next game, when they held their opponent to a 55 or lower rushing EFR and a 65 or lower passing EFR
| 55- dRush EFR |
1-2 |
3-6 |
7-9 |
10-13 |
14+ Diff |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
3 - 6 |
3 - 4 |
0 - 2 |
1 - 4 |
14 - 16 |
21 - 32 |
| HomeDogs |
1 - 0 |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
7 - 5 |
10 - 8 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 3 |
4 - 6 |
0 - 3 |
4 - 3 |
10 - 10 |
18 - 25 |
| AwayDogs |
4 - 2 |
4 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
7 - 6 |
6 - 16 |
21 - 26 |
| Favorites |
3 - 9 |
7 - 10 |
0 - 5 |
5 - 7 |
24 - 26 |
39 - 57 |
| Underdogs |
5 - 2 |
5 - 2 |
0 - 1 |
8 - 8 |
13 - 21 |
31 - 34 |
| Home Teams |
4 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
0 - 2 |
2 - 6 |
21 - 21 |
31 - 40 |
| Away Teams |
4 - 5 |
8 - 7 |
0 - 4 |
11 - 9 |
16 - 26 |
39 - 51 |
| ALL PICKS |
8 - 11 |
12 - 12 |
0 - 6 |
13 - 15 |
37 - 47 |
70 - 91 |
| WIN % |
42 % |
50 % |
0 % |
46 % |
44 % |
43 % |
| Spread Range |
7.5+ pts |
3.5 to 7 |
0 to 3 |
| Favorites |
8 - 17 |
15 - 22 |
16 - 18 |
| Underdogs |
5 - 5 |
17 - 17 |
9 - 12 |
Analysis:
A solid defensive performance leaves such a team vulnerable in the next game as a favorite (39-57 for 40%), and particularly so as a favorite giving more than a field goal, where the results show a 23-39 (37%) mark. Yes, it's that age old NFL truism -- good is bad, bad is good -- when it comes to NFL spread analysis!
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