Using the "Week That Was" data, part IV
Part I - 'Wrong Team Won'
Part II - Close Games
Part III - Rush/Pass Splits
For several seasons now we have been publishing the weekly actual "matchup stats" for the games just played, including such data points as Play Success Rates, Big Gains, Average Yards per Play (counting penalties), and overall Effectiveness.
Sample 'Week That Was' game report from the 2003 season
Green Bay at Detroit
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Green Bay |
41% |
6% |
3.3 |
76 |
47% |
10% |
6.6 |
80 |
21 |
| Detroit |
43% |
6% |
3.0 |
68 |
32% |
3% |
4.2 |
48 |
3 |
THE WRONG TEAM WON! According to the linemakers the Pack were anywhere between a 6 1/2 and 7 point favorite. Sure didn't play like it to me, but da numbers say that the Green Men were actually the better team. Lucky Lions.
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The question becomes whether the charts above can provide any predictive power for upcoming games in assessing how teams are likely to fare. On our fourth pass through this potential handicapping tool, we will focus on cases where a team had an imbalance between their success rushing and passing (or defending against the two).
Case Study #9:
Teams off a strong rushing game, poor passing game
The following data shows the spread results of teams in their next game following a performance where they earned a rushing EFR of 100 or more, and a passing EFR of 65 or less.
| Rush EFR - 100 |
1-2 |
3-6 |
7-9 |
10-13 |
14+ Diff |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
2 - 3 |
0 - 3 |
2 - 0 |
1 - 1 |
7 - 4 |
12 - 11 |
| HomeDogs |
2 - 3 |
5 - 1 |
1 - 2 |
3 - 1 |
4 - 3 |
15 - 10 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 2 |
1 - 3 |
1 - 0 |
1 - 1 |
3 - 3 |
6 - 9 |
| AwayDogs |
3 - 6 |
6 - 2 |
2 - 2 |
5 - 3 |
10 - 6 |
26 - 19 |
| Favorites |
2 - 5 |
1 - 6 |
3 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
10 - 7 |
18 - 20 |
| Underdogs |
5 - 9 |
11 - 3 |
3 - 4 |
8 - 4 |
14 - 9 |
41 - 29 |
| Home Teams |
4 - 6 |
5 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
4 - 2 |
11 - 7 |
27 - 21 |
| Away Teams |
3 - 8 |
7 - 5 |
3 - 2 |
6 - 4 |
13 - 9 |
32 - 28 |
| ALL PICKS |
7 - 14 |
12 - 9 |
6 - 4 |
10 - 6 |
24 - 16 |
59 - 49 |
| WIN % |
33 % |
57 % |
60 % |
63 % |
60 % |
55 % |
| Spread Range |
7.5+ pts |
3.5 to 7 |
0 to 3 |
| Favorites |
6 - 4 |
9 - 5 |
3 - 11 |
| Underdogs |
12 - 7 |
16 - 17 |
13 - 5 |
Analysis:
Solid underdog plays at 41-29 (59%), while surprisingly good as largish favorites (15-9 when laying more than a field goal) and lousy as small favorites.
Case Study #10:
Teams off a strong passing game, poor rushing game
The following data shows the performance of such teams in their next game, when they accumulated a 100+ passing EFR, but a 55 or less rushing EFR
| 55 - Rush EFR |
1-2 |
3-6 |
7-9 |
10-13 |
14+ Diff |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
2 - 3 |
8 - 8 |
5 - 8 |
9 - 4 |
7 - 12 |
31 - 35 |
| HomeDogs |
3 - 4 |
4 - 2 |
2 - 1 |
5 - 4 |
7 - 3 |
21 - 14 |
| AwayFavs |
1 - 4 |
3 - 5 |
0 - 1 |
2 - 4 |
4 - 7 |
10 - 21 |
| AwayDogs |
4 - 4 |
3 - 6 |
4 - 2 |
3 - 5 |
5 - 13 |
19 - 30 |
| Favorites |
3 - 7 |
11 - 13 |
5 - 9 |
11 - 8 |
11 - 19 |
41 - 56 |
| Underdogs |
7 - 8 |
7 - 8 |
6 - 3 |
8 - 9 |
12 - 16 |
40 - 44 |
| Home Teams |
5 - 7 |
12 - 10 |
7 - 9 |
14 - 8 |
14 - 15 |
52 - 49 |
| Away Teams |
5 - 8 |
6 - 11 |
4 - 3 |
5 - 9 |
9 - 20 |
29 - 51 |
| ALL PICKS |
10 - 15 |
18 - 21 |
11 - 12 |
19 - 17 |
23 - 35 |
81 - 100 |
| WIN % |
40 % |
46 % |
48 % |
53 % |
40 % |
45 % |
| Spread Range |
7.5+ pts |
3.5 to 7 |
0 to 3 |
| Favorites |
8 - 16 |
18 - 17 |
15 - 23 |
| Underdogs |
4 - 4 |
12 - 21 |
24 - 19 |
Analysis:
A strong passing number but a poor rushing one can sometimes indicate a game where some 'soft stats' were compiled at the end against a prevent defense. In any event, teams have come back from such a performance in very poor fashion when on the road for the next game -- 29-51 (36%).
Case Study #11:
Teams off a game with good rushing defense, but poor passing defense.
The following data shows the performance of such teams in their next game, when they allowed a 55 or lower rushing EFR and 100+ passing EFR to their opponents.
| 55 - dRush EFR |
1-2 |
3-6 |
7-9 |
10-13 |
14+ Diff |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
0 - 3 |
10 - 7 |
2 - 4 |
6 - 5 |
8 - 14 |
26 - 33 |
| HomeDogs |
4 - 6 |
8 - 3 |
7 - 1 |
1 - 3 |
5 - 4 |
25 - 17 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 1 |
3 - 3 |
1 - 2 |
4 - 3 |
3 - 0 |
11 - 9 |
| AwayDogs |
8 - 1 |
3 - 6 |
1 - 5 |
7 - 5 |
8 - 15 |
27 - 32 |
| Favorites |
0 - 4 |
13 - 10 |
3 - 6 |
10 - 8 |
11 - 14 |
37 - 42 |
| Underdogs |
12 - 7 |
11 - 9 |
8 - 6 |
8 - 8 |
13 - 19 |
52 - 49 |
| Home Teams |
4 - 9 |
18 - 10 |
9 - 5 |
7 - 8 |
13 - 18 |
51 - 50 |
| Away Teams |
8 - 2 |
6 - 9 |
2 - 7 |
11 - 8 |
11 - 15 |
38 - 41 |
| ALL PICKS |
12 - 11 |
24 - 19 |
11 - 12 |
18 - 16 |
24 - 33 |
89 - 91 |
| WIN % |
52 % |
56 % |
48 % |
53 % |
42 % |
49 % |
| Spread Range |
7.5+ pts |
3.5 to 7 |
0 to 3 |
| Favorites |
8 - 7 |
16 - 25 |
13 - 10 |
| Underdogs |
11 - 9 |
17 - 18 |
24 - 22 |
Analysis:
The results don't show any reason to believe the 'good rush defense, poor pass defense' game is any kind of forecaster for things to come.
Case Study #12:
Teams off a game with poor rush defense, good pass defense
The following data shows the performance of such teams in their next game, when they allowed their opponent a 100 or higher rushing EFR and a 65 or lower passing EFR
| dRush EFR - 100 |
1-2 |
3-6 |
7-9 |
10-13 |
14+ Diff |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
4 - 2 |
5 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
5 - 4 |
11 - 7 |
28 - 19 |
| HomeDogs |
3 - 2 |
4 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
3 - 2 |
12 - 5 |
| AwayFavs |
3 - 2 |
0 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
1 - 1 |
1 - 2 |
6 - 7 |
| AwayDogs |
5 - 2 |
5 - 2 |
1 - 1 |
1 - 2 |
8 - 3 |
20 - 10 |
| Favorites |
7 - 4 |
5 - 6 |
4 - 2 |
6 - 5 |
12 - 9 |
34 - 26 |
| Underdogs |
8 - 4 |
9 - 2 |
1 - 1 |
3 - 3 |
11 - 5 |
32 - 15 |
| Home Teams |
7 - 4 |
9 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
7 - 5 |
14 - 9 |
40 - 24 |
| Away Teams |
8 - 4 |
5 - 4 |
2 - 1 |
2 - 3 |
9 - 5 |
26 - 17 |
| ALL PICKS |
15 - 8 |
14 - 8 |
5 - 3 |
9 - 8 |
23 - 14 |
66 - 41 |
| WIN % |
65 % |
64 % |
63 % |
53 % |
62 % |
62 % |
| Spread Range |
7.5+ pts |
3.5 to 7 |
0 to 3 |
| Favorites |
7 - 7 |
20 - 14 |
7 - 5 |
| Underdogs |
6 - 5 |
15 - 7 |
11 - 3 |
Analysis:
Teams that can stop the pass but not the run in a given week have apparently found the 'quick fix' defensively for the next game, and compiled a hefty 62% mark against the line in the follow-up. Other than the notoriously bad away favorite class, it's all good for their backers.
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