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Drive Chart Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Drive Chart Stats we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| Seattle at San Francisco |
SEA 35-8 |
+27 |
+12 |
Seattle |
15 |
| Pittsburgh at Baltimore |
PIT 26-11 |
+15 |
+4 |
Pittsburgh |
11 |
| Minnesota at Green Bay |
GB 28-13 |
-15 |
-4 |
Green Bay |
11 |
| Kansas City at Houston |
KC 32-15 |
+17 |
+6.5 |
Kansas City |
10.5 |
| New Orleans at New England |
NE 23-20 |
-3 |
-10 |
New Orleans |
7 |
| N.Y. Jets at Denver |
DEN 30-11 |
-19 |
-13 |
Denver |
6 |
| Arizona at St. Louis |
STL 25-21 |
-4 |
-9.5 |
Arizona |
5.5 |
| Jacksonville at Tennessee |
JAX 23-14 |
+9 |
+4 |
Jacksonville |
5 |
| Indianapolis at Cincinnati |
IND 28-19 |
+9 |
+5.5 |
Indianapolis |
3.5 |
| Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants |
NYG 26-15 |
-11 |
-7.5 |
N.Y. Giants |
3.5 |
| Miami at Cleveland |
MIA 18-17 |
+1 |
-2 |
Miami |
3 |
| Tampa Bay at Atlanta |
ATL 21-18 |
-3 |
-6 |
Tampa Bay |
3 |
| Buffalo at San Diego |
SD 29-16 |
-13 |
-10 |
San Diego |
3 |
| Carolina at Chicago |
CAR 19-14 |
+5 |
+3 |
Carolina |
2 |
| Oakland at Washington |
WAS 25-20 |
-5 |
-6 |
Oakland |
1 |
| Detroit at Dallas |
DAL 22-13 |
-9 |
-8.5 |
Dallas |
.5 |
2005 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
1 - 1 |
6 - 0 |
3 - 2 |
0 - 2 |
12 - 8 |
22 - 13 |
| HomeDogs |
0 - 3 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
1 - 1 |
1 - 1 |
2 - 5 |
| AwayFavs |
1 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
6 - 4 |
12 - 7 |
| AwayDogs |
2 - 0 |
3 - 2 |
1 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
5 - 6 |
14 - 15 |
|
| Favorites |
2 - 1 |
8 - 2 |
3 - 2 |
3 - 3 |
18 - 12 |
34 - 20 |
| Underdogs |
2 - 3 |
3 - 2 |
1 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
6 - 7 |
16 - 20 |
| Home Teams |
1 - 4 |
6 - 0 |
3 - 2 |
1 - 3 |
13 - 9 |
24 - 18 |
| Away Teams |
3 - 0 |
5 - 4 |
1 - 4 |
6 - 4 |
11 - 10 |
26 - 22 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
4 - 4 |
11 - 4 |
4 - 6 |
7 - 7 |
24 - 19 |
50 - 40 |
| WIN % |
50 % |
73 % |
40 % |
50 % |
56 % |
56 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
5 - 5 |
11 - 5 |
18 - 10 |
| Underdogs |
0 - 0 |
4 - 4 |
12 - 16 |
Play-By-Play Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Play-By-Play ratings we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ point overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| Seattle at San Francisco |
SEA 33-6 |
+27 |
+12 |
Seattle |
15 |
| Pittsburgh at Baltimore |
PIT 26-9 |
+17 |
+4 |
Pittsburgh |
13 |
| Kansas City at Houston |
KC 32-13 |
+19 |
+6.5 |
Kansas City |
12.5 |
| New Orleans at New England |
NE 23-20 |
-3 |
-10 |
New Orleans |
7 |
| Tampa Bay at Atlanta |
TB 18-17 |
+1 |
-6 |
Tampa Bay |
7 |
| Minnesota at Green Bay |
GB 25-14 |
-11 |
-4 |
Green Bay |
7 |
| Detroit at Dallas |
DAL 23-8 |
-15 |
-8.5 |
Dallas |
6.5 |
| Carolina at Chicago |
CHI 14-11 |
-3 |
+3 |
Chicago |
6 |
| N.Y. Jets at Denver |
DEN 28-9 |
-19 |
-13 |
Denver |
6 |
| Jacksonville at Tennessee |
JAX 23-14 |
+9 |
+4 |
Jacksonville |
5 |
| Buffalo at San Diego |
SD 29-14 |
-15 |
-10 |
San Diego |
5 |
| Oakland at Washington |
WAS 25-16 |
-9 |
-6 |
Washington |
3 |
| Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants |
NYG 22-17 |
-5 |
-7.5 |
Philadelphia |
2.5 |
| Indianapolis at Cincinnati |
IND 27-20 |
+7 |
+5.5 |
Indianapolis |
1.5 |
| Miami at Cleveland |
CLE 20-19 |
-1 |
-2 |
Miami |
1 |
| Arizona at St. Louis |
STL 27-18 |
-9 |
-9.5 |
Arizona |
.5 |
2005 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
2 - 1 |
6 - 4 |
2 - 3 |
2 - 2 |
8 - 7 |
20 - 17 |
| HomeDogs |
0 - 2 |
1 - 1 |
1 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
3 - 5 |
| AwayFavs |
1 - 1 |
2 - 2 |
0 - 2 |
0 - 1 |
8 - 1 |
11 - 7 |
| AwayDogs |
1 - 1 |
1 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
2 - 2 |
3 - 11 |
12 - 19 |
|
| Favorites |
3 - 2 |
8 - 6 |
2 - 5 |
2 - 3 |
16 - 8 |
31 - 24 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 3 |
2 - 4 |
6 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
3 - 11 |
15 - 24 |
| Home Teams |
2 - 3 |
7 - 5 |
3 - 5 |
3 - 2 |
8 - 7 |
23 - 22 |
| Away Teams |
2 - 2 |
3 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
2 - 3 |
11 - 12 |
23 - 26 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
4 - 5 |
10 - 10 |
8 - 9 |
5 - 5 |
19 - 19 |
46 - 48 |
| WIN % |
44 % |
50 % |
47 % |
50 % |
50 % |
49 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
5 - 5 |
10 - 7 |
16 - 12 |
| Underdogs |
0 - 0 |
3 - 5 |
12 - 19 |
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