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NFL 2005

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    NFL 2005
    "Summary" Sheet
    For a quick overview of how the various tools and columns see the upcoming games, check out the Summary Sheet.

    Notes:
    - Be aware that various teams may elect to rest starters for 'meaningless' games
    - The outcomes of the Season Win Picks have been determined.

    There are several guest handicappers this week:
    --- OVERLAY of SharpSportsBetting.com
    --- Rick Needham (formerly of SportsMaster)
    --- Tim

    Week Sixteen Wrap-Up
    Favorites were 11-4-1 by the Tuesday consensus line and have a resounding 134-99-6 lead on the season. The Away teams were ahead 8-7-1, but the Home sides still lead 119-114-6 on the year. Home dogs were 0-4 and are 29-45 overall. Meanwhile the totals saw the Overs ahead 11-5, but the Unders lead 124-111-4 year to date.

    Feature
    Week 17
    Season
    Win%
     Season Win Picks
    4-1
    80% 
      Injury Report
    4-0
    20-17
    54% 
     Over-Under Picks
    4-2
    38-35
    52% 
     Full Story 60%+
    7-7
    50% 
      Regressor
    3-2
    29-30
    49% 
      L5 Upm 65%+
    1-1
    17-18
    49% 
      C.S.M.
    28-32
    47% 
      O/U Regressor
    1-0
    29-36
    45% 
      PBP 4+ Dogs
    0-1
    18-23
    44% 
      T/O Diff: Interception Plays
    26-34
    43% 
      DCTO 8+
    1-4
    35-46
    43% 
      Contrarian Consensus
    14-19
    42% 
      T/O Diff: Fumble Plays
    25-34
    42% 
      Trends
    1-0
    22-30
    42% 
      UPM 65%+
    1-2
    22-32
    41% 
      Player/Team
    24-35
    41% 
      Best Bets Column
    5-8
    80-127
    39% 
      Full Story 55%+
    1-3
    38-62
    38% 
      Turnover Difference
    29-48
    38% 
     Falcon PP's
    1-2
    9-15
    38% 
      Drive Chart 4+ Dogs
    0-3
    14-24
    37% 
      Inside the 20
    8-15
    35% 
      Stats Force
    0-3
    6-25
    19% 
     Player Prop Bets
    +0.4 units
    +7.5 units
     
      Teasers
    +0.7 units
    -31.1 units
     
      Money-Line
    +11.2 units
    -36.2 units
     
      Bankroll: Full Story
    -$25
    -$2614
    -52% 
      Bankroll: Professor 'M'
    -$2518
    -50% 

    Timing Notes
    The first update for a week is always on TUESDAY by 3pm Pacific Time. Several columns/features appear over the next few days, with everything posted by FRIDAY.

    The Message Boards are now up and running. Since some subscribers did not express interest in them, we have not pre-registered anyone so you will need to REGISTER. Let us know if you experience any difficulties viewing/posting to the boards. The boards are an excellent place to ask questions regarding our features and subscriber coverage.

    A word about lines: we use the consensus line at the time data is made available. This is the line for our record-keeping purposes. You should however make every attempt to get the most favorable line when you actually place a wager. Line-shopping can improve your results over the course of a season by several percentage points.


    Using injury data to pick Winners
    The latest update on our classic injury research of a few years ago. Can we find a way to use the injury information released by the NFL to devise a method for predicting how teams will perform with injured players? Subscriber follow-up: Injury Report Result Charts

    Falcon PP's research
    1) How to use the Falcon PP's -- Average Speed Figures
    2) Hitting the '2win' Numbers (subscriber-only)
    3) Common Opponents (subscriber-only)
    4) Monte Carlo Simulations (subscriber-only)


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