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Drive Chart Turnover Overlays
Our research has shown that combining the drive chart predicted scores with
some of the 'Turnover Difference' theories yields a highly predictive forecast against the spread.
For more background on this TwoMinuteWarning tool, please see the
DC/TO article series.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
DCTO
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| New England at Denver |
NE 22-18 |
+4 |
-3 |
New England |
7 |
| Pittsburgh at Indianapolis |
IND 19-14 |
-5 |
-9.5 |
Pittsburgh |
4.5 |
| Washington at Seattle |
SEA 22-16 |
-6 |
-9.5 |
Washington |
3.5 |
| Carolina at Chicago |
CHI 11-11 |
+0 |
-3 |
Carolina |
3 |
2005 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
7 - 3 |
3 - 2 |
6 - 7 |
5 - 4 |
11 - 9 |
32 - 25 |
| HomeDogs |
2 - 5 |
4 - 3 |
1 - 8 |
2 - 1 |
6 - 14 |
15 - 31 |
| AwayFavs |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
5 - 1 |
5 - 3 |
14 - 6 |
| AwayDogs |
4 - 4 |
4 - 10 |
6 - 4 |
7 - 4 |
15 - 21 |
36 - 43 |
|
| Favorites |
9 - 3 |
3 - 2 |
8 - 9 |
10 - 5 |
16 - 12 |
46 - 31 |
| Underdogs |
6 - 9 |
8 - 13 |
7 - 12 |
9 - 5 |
21 - 35 |
51 - 74 |
| Home Teams |
9 - 8 |
7 - 5 |
7 - 15 |
7 - 5 |
17 - 23 |
47 - 56 |
| Away Teams |
6 - 4 |
4 - 10 |
8 - 6 |
12 - 5 |
20 - 24 |
50 - 49 |
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| ALL PICKS |
15 - 12 |
11 - 15 |
15 - 21 |
19 - 10 |
37 - 47 |
97 - 105 |
| WIN % |
56 % |
42 % |
42 % |
66 % |
44 % |
48 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
6 - 5 |
12 - 11 |
28 - 15 |
| Underdogs |
7 - 7 |
17 - 23 |
27 - 44 |
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