'Full Story' Game Simulations
The 'full story' engine results appear below with the likely cover team and confidence value derived from 10,000 simulated games.
We also show the results of simulations against two alternative lines (a 1/2 point either way from the consensus line) under the 'Line2' and 'Line3' columns.
Wildcard Round Games
| Matchup |
Line |
Pick |
Cover % |
Line2 |
Line3 |
| New England at Denver |
-3 |
Denver |
60% |
-2.5
Den 65% |
-3.5
Den 55% |
| Washington at Seattle |
-9.5 |
Seattle |
57% |
-9
Sea 58% |
-10
Sea 55% |
| Pittsburgh at Indianapolis |
-9.5 |
Pittsburgh |
53% |
-9
Pit 52% |
-10
Pit 55% |
| Carolina at Chicago |
-3 |
Chicago |
51% |
-2.5
Chi 57% |
-3.5
Car 54% |
For more background on this TwoMinuteWarning tool,
please see the Full Story Engine article.
Performance through Week Eighteen:
| Category |
50 - 54% |
55 - 59% |
60 - 64% |
65 - 69% |
70% + up |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
25 - 19 |
5 - 7 |
1 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
31 - 26 |
| HomeDogs |
8 - 18 |
8 - 19 |
0 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
16 - 38 |
| AwayFavs |
8 - 15 |
2 - 4 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
10 - 19 |
| AwayDogs |
23 - 27 |
21 - 29 |
6 - 7 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
50 - 63 |
|
| Favorites |
33 - 34 |
7 - 11 |
1 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
41 - 45 |
| Underdogs |
31 - 45 |
29 - 48 |
6 - 8 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
66 - 101 |
| Home Teams |
33 - 37 |
13 - 26 |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
47 - 64 |
| Away Teams |
31 - 42 |
23 - 33 |
6 - 7 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
60 - 82 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
64 - 79 |
36 - 59 |
7 - 8 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
107 - 146 |
| WIN % |
45 % |
38 % |
47 % |
0 % |
0 % |
42 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
6 - 8 |
13 - 15 |
22 - 22 |
| Underdogs |
6 - 11 |
25 - 30 |
35 - 60 |
|
