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Injury Report Result Charts
The following performance charts pertain to a variety of strategies used in our Injury Report column, so if you are unfamiliar with these methods please see the Using injury data to pick Winners research.
1) This Week 4+ edge
Comments: Aside from the obvious overall results, a big edge in 'this week' injury levels has been a very healthy sign for home underdogs, and dogs in general.
| This Wk Edge --> |
0 - 0.9 |
1 - 2.9 |
3 - 4.9 |
5 - 6.9 |
7+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
7 - 12 |
11 - 6 |
1 - 1 |
19 - 19 |
| HomeDogs |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
9 - 2 |
6 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
15 - 3 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
7 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
1 - 1 |
11 - 8 |
| AwayDogs |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
10 - 4 |
5 - 6 |
0 - 1 |
15 - 11 |
|
| Favorites |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
14 - 16 |
14 - 9 |
2 - 2 |
30 - 27 |
| Underdogs |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
19 - 6 |
11 - 7 |
0 - 1 |
30 - 14 |
| Home Teams |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
16 - 14 |
17 - 7 |
1 - 1 |
34 - 22 |
| Away Teams |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
17 - 8 |
8 - 9 |
1 - 2 |
26 - 19 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
33 - 22 |
25 - 16 |
2 - 3 |
60 - 41 |
| WIN % |
0 % |
0 % |
60 % |
61 % |
40 % |
59 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
2 - 2 |
13 - 10 |
15 - 15 |
| Underdogs |
4 - 2 |
12 - 4 |
14 - 8 |
2) Change Week 3+ edge
Comments: Nice results across the board of categories.
| Change Wk edge --> |
0 - 0.9 |
1 - 2.9 |
3 - 4.9 |
5 - 6.9 |
7+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
19 - 11 |
4 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
24 - 13 |
| HomeDogs |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
15 - 7 |
3 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
18 - 9 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
10 - 6 |
0 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
10 - 7 |
| AwayDogs |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
19 - 9 |
1 - 3 |
0 - 0 |
20 - 12 |
|
| Favorites |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
29 - 17 |
4 - 3 |
1 - 0 |
34 - 20 |
| Underdogs |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
34 - 16 |
4 - 4 |
0 - 1 |
38 - 21 |
| Home Teams |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
34 - 18 |
7 - 3 |
1 - 1 |
42 - 22 |
| Away Teams |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
29 - 15 |
1 - 4 |
0 - 0 |
30 - 19 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
63 - 33 |
8 - 7 |
1 - 1 |
72 - 41 |
| WIN % |
0 % |
0 % |
66 % |
53 % |
50 % |
64 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
5 - 1 |
14 - 7 |
15 - 12 |
| Underdogs |
3 - 3 |
18 - 5 |
17 - 13 |
3) This Week 2+ edge AND Change Week 2+ edge
Comments: the performance has been brilliant overall, but no obvious subset filters stand out.
| This Wk Edge --> |
0 - 0.9 |
1 - 2.9 |
3 - 4.9 |
5 - 6.9 |
7+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
0 - 0 |
5 - 4 |
10 - 8 |
7 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
23 - 13 |
| HomeDogs |
0 - 0 |
6 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
4 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
15 - 5 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 0 |
5 - 2 |
10 - 5 |
2 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
17 - 8 |
| AwayDogs |
0 - 0 |
5 - 4 |
10 - 5 |
1 - 3 |
0 - 1 |
16 - 13 |
|
| Favorites |
0 - 0 |
10 - 6 |
20 - 13 |
9 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
40 - 21 |
| Underdogs |
0 - 0 |
11 - 7 |
15 - 7 |
5 - 3 |
0 - 1 |
31 - 18 |
| Home Teams |
0 - 0 |
11 - 7 |
15 - 10 |
11 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
38 - 18 |
| Away Teams |
0 - 0 |
10 - 6 |
20 - 10 |
3 - 4 |
0 - 1 |
33 - 21 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
0 - 0 |
21 - 13 |
35 - 20 |
14 - 5 |
1 - 1 |
71 - 39 |
| WIN % |
0 % |
62 % |
64 % |
74 % |
50 % |
65 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
4 - 1 |
15 - 7 |
21 - 13 |
| Underdogs |
4 - 2 |
14 - 7 |
13 - 9 |
The remaining question though is can these three methods be used independently, or is it the case that the first two filters are just capturing the picks of the third set? To answer this we've run the queries:
- This Week 4+ edge teams where the Change Week edge is less than 2 or negative are 30-28 (52%)
- Change Week 3+ edge teams where the This Week edge is less than 2 or negative are 32-23 (58%)
Conclusion: 'This Week' advantages without significant support from the 'Change Week' numbers do not appear predictive. On the other hand there is some evidence that 'Change Week' advantages can be useful indicators even without 'This Week' support.
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