Cumulative Spread Margin
("Contrarian Bridgejumping")
Week One
If you are unfamiliar with the "Contrarian Bridgejumping" handicapping method, we suggest you read the following first:
As the name suggests, "Cumulative Spread Margin" involves totaling up how a team has performed in terms of net points against the lines on their games. For instance a team that won by eight while favored by three would accrue +5 points of CSM for the effort. On the other hand a team that lost by eight while favored by three would get a -11 CSM for that game.
Similar to the Turnover Difference Theory (another contrarian indicator), the CSM angle suggests playing the team with the BAD Cumulative Spread Margin in match-ups with a significant difference, which is defined as 6+ CSM points per game.
Example: if team A is averaging a -2 pt CSM and team B is +5 CSM per game so far, then team A would be the play based on being 7 CSM pts worse per game.
While the method is focused on the week 5 to week 12 heart of the season, it seems logical that the angle might work fairly well for the first week of a season, given that the lousy teams from last year will probably be under-rated, while the good teams from last season may generally be over-rated. Here are the CSM results in week one games:
Week 1 "Cumulative Spread Margin" results 1984-2007
(using prior season's stats)
| Overlay |
6 - 7.9 |
8+ Pts |
| HomeFavs |
8 - 4 |
2 - 0 |
| HomeDogs |
7 - 4 |
11 - 3 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
| AwayDogs |
8 - 6 |
8 - 6 |
| Favorites |
8 - 5 |
2 - 0 |
| Underdogs |
15 - 10 |
19 - 9 |
| Home Teams |
15 - 8 |
13 - 3 |
| Away Teams |
8 - 7 |
8 - 6 |
| ALL PICKS |
23 - 15 |
21 - 9 |
| WIN % |
60 % |
70 % |
Spread Ranges for the 6+ Difference plays
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
0 - 0 |
2 - 0 |
8 - 5 |
| Underdogs |
4 - 3 |
13 - 10 |
16 - 7 |
So it's a little impressive seeing the 6+ plays (the only ones that count) have compiled a 44-24 record from 1984-2007
Let's take a look then at the 2008 season matchups:
Away
CSM |
Away Team |
Line
(Home) |
Home Team |
Home
CSM |
Pick |
CSM Diff |
| 2.1 |
Washington |
-4 |
N.Y. Giants |
.5 |
|
1.6 |
| -3.4 |
Detroit |
+3 |
Atlanta |
-4.3 |
|
.9 |
| -.8 |
Cincinnati |
+1.5 |
Baltimore |
-5.6 |
|
4.8 |
| 2.7 |
Seattle |
+0 |
Buffalo |
-1.2 |
|
3.9 |
| -.5 |
N.Y. Jets |
+3 |
Miami |
-4 |
|
3.5 |
| -2.9 |
Kansas City |
-16.5 |
New England |
5.5 |
Kansas City |
-8.4 |
| 3.2 |
Tampa Bay |
-3.5 |
New Orleans |
-3.4 |
New Orleans |
6.6 |
| -6.3 |
St. Louis |
-7.5 |
Philadelphia |
1.7 |
St. Louis |
-8.0 |
| 1.6 |
Houston |
-6.5 |
Pittsburgh |
1.7 |
|
-.1 |
| 5.1 |
Jacksonville |
+3 |
Tennessee |
-1.3 |
Tennessee |
6.4 |
| 2.2 |
Dallas |
+5.5 |
Cleveland |
1.7 |
|
.5 |
| -2.6 |
Carolina |
-9 |
San Diego |
3 |
|
-5.6 |
| 1 |
Arizona |
+2.5 |
San Francisco |
-3.6 |
|
4.6 |
| -.2 |
Chicago |
-9.5 |
Indianapolis |
5.5 |
|
-5.7 |
| 3.5 |
Minnesota |
-3 |
Green Bay |
6.5 |
|
-3.0 |
| -5.4 |
Denver |
+3 |
Oakland |
-2.2 |
|
-3.2 |
ANALYSIS:
Four teams get the nod by the CSM method for the openers, based on the prior season performance against the spread:
Kansas City +16.5, New Orleans -3.5, St. Louis +7.5 and Tennessee +3.
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