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Turnovers
For those unfamiliar with our turnover research, you may want to review the following classic article for background on this theory:
Now trying to apply this method to the week one games is of course a little different since we will be forced to use the last season "net turnover" numbers for the teams rather than live in-season data. The first question is whether there has historically been any positive results against the spread playing as usual the WORSE net turnover team provided there is at least a half a turnover per game difference between the two teams (as an example if Miami was +1.5 net turnovers per game the prior year and Buffalo was -0.8 then Buffalo would be the play on account of being -2.3 turnovers per game worse).
Here then are the results we found:
Week 1 "Turnover Difference" results 1984-2007
(using prior season stats)
| T/O Difference |
0.5 - 0.9 |
1.0 - 1.4 |
1.5 - 1.9 |
2.0 - 2.4 |
2.5+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
13 - 16 |
3 - 7 |
2 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
18 - 24 |
| HomeDogs |
19 - 13 |
9 - 6 |
9 - 2 |
0 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
37 - 22 |
| AwayFavs |
4 - 3 |
2 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
8 - 4 |
| AwayDogs |
18 - 20 |
12 - 17 |
5 - 4 |
4 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
39 - 42 |
|
| Favorites |
17 - 19 |
5 - 8 |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
26 - 28 |
| Underdogs |
37 - 33 |
21 - 23 |
14 - 6 |
4 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
76 - 64 |
| Home Teams |
32 - 29 |
12 - 13 |
11 - 3 |
0 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
55 - 46 |
| Away Teams |
22 - 23 |
14 - 18 |
6 - 4 |
5 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
47 - 46 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
54 - 52 |
26 - 31 |
17 - 7 |
5 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
102 - 92 |
| WIN % |
51 % |
46 % |
71 % |
71 % |
0 % |
53 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
1 - 0 |
5 - 7 |
19 - 22 |
| Underdogs |
7 - 7 |
30 - 28 |
39 - 29 |
So there does seem to be some mild predictive value here, and the overall mark of 102-92 for 52.5% is even against the conventional 11/10 vigorish. Home Dogs and Away Favorites combine for a nice 45-26 record (63%), while games with a T/O Diff of 1.5 or more are a heavyweight 22-9 (71%).
The next thing to do is to break out the turnovers by using only fumbles and then only interceptions. Rather than produce the whole table, we will summarize the results as follows:
| Category |
All Plays |
Win% |
| Net Fumbles (lost) |
61 - 42 |
59% |
| Net Interceptions |
70 - 69 |
50% |
So from this you might take it that fumbles have been the key, although the fumble picks in the last five seasons' week one games were only 9-12 against the line.
At this point you have probably had enough theory and are ready to review the 2008 season matchups with the net turnovers per game data:
| Away |
Line |
Home |
Net
INT |
Net
FUM |
Net
T/O |
INT
Pick |
FUM
Pick |
T/O
Pick |
| Washington |
-4 |
N.Y. Giants |
8 |
-4 |
4 |
NYG |
- |
- |
| Detroit |
+3 |
Atlanta |
-6 |
2 |
-4 |
- |
- |
- |
| Cincinnati |
+1.5 |
Baltimore |
-4 |
25 |
21 |
- |
BAL |
BAL |
| Seattle |
+0 |
Buffalo |
3 |
-2 |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
| N.Y. Jets |
+3 |
Miami |
-2 |
5 |
3 |
- |
- |
- |
| Kansas City |
-16.5 |
New England |
-16 |
-11 |
-27 |
KC |
KC |
KC |
| Tampa Bay |
-3.5 |
New Orleans |
13 |
9 |
22 |
NO |
NO |
NO |
| St. Louis |
-7.5 |
Philadelphia |
-6 |
4 |
-2 |
- |
- |
- |
| Houston |
-6.5 |
Pittsburgh |
-7 |
-9 |
-16 |
- |
HOU |
HOU |
| Jacksonville |
+3 |
Tennessee |
7 |
1 |
8 |
- |
- |
TEN |
| Dallas |
+5.5 |
Cleveland |
3 |
4 |
7 |
- |
- |
- |
| Carolina |
-9 |
San Diego |
-17 |
-6 |
-23 |
CAR |
- |
CAR |
| Arizona |
+2.5 |
San Francisco |
-1 |
7 |
6 |
- |
- |
- |
| Chicago |
-9.5 |
Indianapolis |
-13 |
-6 |
-19 |
CHI |
- |
CHI |
| Minnesota |
-3 |
Green Bay |
-3 |
0 |
-3 |
- |
- |
- |
| Denver |
+3 |
Oakland |
1 |
10 |
11 |
- |
OAK |
OAK |
ANALYSIS: The table shows the various turnover comparisons for the teams in a matchup using last year's regular season data. The T/O pick is posted for either the Net T/O, Net Fumble, or Net Interception category if the delta between the teams crosses the 1/2 turnover per game line.
The historical splits highlight a few different areas:
Home Dogs/Away Favorites: Baltimore +1.5, Tennessee +3, Oakland +3
1.5+ T/O Diff per game: Kansas City +16.5
Fumbles picks: Baltimore +1.5, Kansas City +16.5, New Orleans -3.5, Houston +6.5, Oakland +3.
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