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Trends
Using last season's Net Points
We strongly recommend you read the following article first to understand our commentary here:
There is some evidence suggesting that the "net points week one" angle is stronger with the additional requirements for a play -- at least a 2 point difference between the teams' net points the prior season, and at least a 2 point "perceived false value" when comparing the actual line to a line constructed by using last season's net points. We will however utilize the original 'rules' in the following table:
NFL Week 1, 2008
| away team |
'07 net |
home team |
'07 net |
worse
net |
net
line |
LV
line |
line
loser |
val |
PICK |
| Washington |
+1.5 |
N.Y. Giants |
+1.4 |
Nyg |
-2.9 |
-4 |
Nyg |
+1.1 |
Nyg |
| Detroit |
-6.1 |
Atlanta |
-9.7 |
ATL |
+0.6 |
+3 |
Det |
+2.4 |
|
| Cincinnati |
-0.3 |
Baltimore |
-6.8 |
BAL |
+3.5 |
+1.5 |
Bal |
+2.0 |
BAL |
| Seattle |
+6.4 |
Buffalo |
-6.4 |
BUF |
+9.8 |
0 |
Buf |
+9.8 |
BUF |
| N.Y. Jets |
-5.4 |
Miami |
-10.6 |
MIA |
+2.2 |
+3 |
Nyj |
+0.8 |
|
| Kansas City |
-6.8 |
New England |
+19.7 |
KC |
-29.5 |
-16.5 |
Kc |
+13.0 |
KC |
| Tampa Bay |
+4.0 |
New Orleans |
-0.6 |
NO |
+1.6 |
-3.5 |
No |
+5.1 |
No |
| St. Louis |
-10.9 |
Philadelphia |
+2.3 |
STL |
-16.2 |
-7.5 |
Stl |
+8.7 |
STL |
| Houston |
-0.3 |
Pittsburgh |
+7.8 |
HOU |
-11.1 |
-6.5 |
Hou |
+4.6 |
HOU |
| Jacksonville |
+6.7 |
Tennessee |
+0.3 |
TEN |
+3.4 |
+3 |
Ten |
+0.4 |
Ten |
| Dallas |
+8.1 |
Cleveland |
+1.3 |
CLE |
+3.8 |
+5.5 |
Dal |
+1.7 |
|
| Carolina |
-5.0 |
San Diego |
+8.0 |
CAR |
-16.0 |
-9 |
Car |
+7.0 |
CAR |
| Arizona |
+0.3 |
San Francisco |
-9.1 |
SF |
+6.4 |
+2.5 |
Sf |
+3.9 |
SF |
| Chicago |
-0.9 |
Indianapolis |
+11.8 |
CHI |
-15.7 |
-9.5 |
Chi |
+6.2 |
CHI |
| Minnesota |
+3.4 |
Green Bay |
+9.0 |
MIN |
-8.6 |
-3 |
Min |
+5.6 |
MIN |
| Denver |
-5.6 |
Oakland |
-7.2 |
Oak |
-1.4 |
+3 |
Den |
+4.4 |
Oak |
If you go with the tighter thresholds mentioned above, the qualifers are the teams in bold in the far right column.
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