Be Cautious in playing the early weeks of the season
Our approaches become much stronger once teams have played a number of games. Be sure to read any notation as to the past history of a feature in week two matchups. We do NOT recommend playing teams selected by the pure statistical tools in week two games! That analysis is based on just one game and is not adjusted. Also please note that a number of features will not appear until later in the season when teams have played several times.
The Team Season Win Picks sheet is also available.
New feature this season: the Maxwell Report
We have added the stats model produced by "Maxwell" as another resource. Published as an early look on Wednesday, with a final 'tracked' look on Saturday. See Maxwell Wk 2.
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Week One Wrap-Up
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The week saw favorites go 9-7 (using Tuesday lines and a pick game the away team is considered the favorite), home teams also were 9-7, and home dogs 4-4. Meanwhile the totals saw the unders ahead 9-7.
Week one games are always tricky for us since we rely so heavily on stat based tools that can't be used until teams have played several times. Once again though the main week one method, courtesy of the Trends column, delivered profitable results. The following table lists the indicators we will be tracking this season from high to low based on their week one performance:
| Feature |
Week 1
Won-Lost |
| C.S.M. |
3-1 |
| Maxwell Report 55%+ Picks |
6-3 |
| Turnover Difference |
6-3 |
| Trends |
8-5 |
| Full Story 54%+ |
8-6 |
| Best Bets Column |
3-4 |
| Bet Tracker, <20% |
0-1 |
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A word about lines: we use the consensus line at the time data is made available. This is the line for our record-keeping purposes. You should however make every attempt to get the most favorable line when you actually place a wager. Line-shopping can improve your results over the course of a season by several percentage points.
Questions? Feel free to contact me, Nathan, the Investor area manager:
Nathan.NFL@gmail.com
