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Turnovers
For those unfamiliar with our turnover research, you may want to review the following prior articles for background on this theory:
Week Three games are not included in the data for the above research, so the first question is whether there has historically been any positive results against the spread playing as usual the WORSE net turnover team provided there is at least a half a turnover per game difference between the two teams?
- All Turnovers: 151-130 (53.7%)
- Net Fumbles: 140-122 (53.4%)
- Net Interceptions: 140-130 (51.9%)
Some modest but limited value then for this week from the turnovers. Nets shown below reflect Away number minus Home number.
| Away |
Line |
Home |
Net
INT |
Net
FUM |
Net
T/O |
INT
Pick |
FUM
Pick |
T/O
Pick |
| Kansas City |
-5 |
Atlanta |
-2 |
3 |
1 |
KC |
ATL |
- |
| Oakland |
-9.5 |
Buffalo |
0 |
-4 |
-4 |
- |
OAK |
OAK |
| Tampa Bay |
-3 |
Chicago |
1 |
0 |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
| Carolina |
-3.5 |
Minnesota |
-2 |
3 |
1 |
CAR |
MIN |
- |
| Miami |
-12.5 |
New England |
-3 |
3 |
0 |
MIA |
NE |
- |
| Cincinnati |
-13.5 |
N.Y. Giants |
-3 |
2 |
-1 |
CIN |
NYG |
- |
| Houston |
-5 |
Tennessee |
-4 |
0 |
-4 |
HOU |
- |
HOU |
| Arizona |
-3 |
Washington |
-2 |
4 |
2 |
ARI |
WAS |
WAS |
| New Orleans |
-5.5 |
Denver |
-2 |
-1 |
-3 |
NO |
- |
NO |
| Detroit |
-4 |
San Francisco |
-5 |
5 |
0 |
DET |
SF |
- |
| St. Louis |
-9.5 |
Seattle |
2 |
1 |
3 |
SEA |
- |
SEA |
| Cleveland |
-2.5 |
Baltimore |
-2 |
1 |
-1 |
CLE |
- |
- |
| Jacksonville |
-5.5 |
Indianapolis |
1 |
-1 |
0 |
- |
- |
- |
| Pittsburgh |
-3 |
Philadelphia |
3 |
0 |
3 |
PHI |
- |
PHI |
| Dallas |
+3 |
Green Bay |
-6 |
1 |
-5 |
DAL |
- |
DAL |
| N.Y. Jets |
-9 |
San Diego |
0 |
-1 |
-1 |
- |
- |
- |
Take your chances if you must, but we'd stress holding off until later in the season.
Season-To-Date Results:
All Net T/O Plays: 6-2
All Net Int Plays: 0-0
All Net Fum Plays: 3-2
Contrarian Consensus: 0-0
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Last week: we stated we would not count these plays since the history showed little predictive value and the non-couted results had the T/O going 6-7, the Fumble picks 4-3 and the INT picks 3-8. Week FIVE is when the next turnover plays will be counted.
Archive
Week 2 Turnover Column
Week 1 Turnover Column
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