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    Week
    Four



    Drive Chart Overlay Summary

    Using our exclusive Drive Chart Stats we create a predicted score for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the actual line you can find games where there is a significant difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been underdogs with a 4+ overlay.

    Match-up
    Predicted Score
    TMW
    Line
    Line
    (home)
    Pick
    Overlay
    Buffalo at St. Louis
    BUF 36-9
    +27
    +8
    Buffalo
    19
    Arizona at N.Y. Jets
    ARI 33-18
    +15
    -3
    Arizona
    18
    Denver at Kansas City
    DEN 40-15
    +25
    +9.5
    Denver
    15.5
    Atlanta at Carolina
    ATL 23-18
    +5
    -7
    Atlanta
    12
    Baltimore at Pittsburgh
    BAL 17-12
    +5
    -7
    Baltimore
    12
    San Francisco at New Orleans
    SF 26-23
    +3
    -6
    San Francisco
    9
    Minnesota at Tennessee
    TEN 20-9
    -11
    -3
    Tennessee
    8
    Philadelphia at Chicago
    PHI 25-14
    +11
    +3
    Philadelphia
    8
    Houston at Jacksonville
    JAX 29-14
    -15
    -7.5
    Jacksonville
    7.5
    Cleveland at Cincinnati
    CIN 22-13
    -9
    -3.5
    Cincinnati
    5.5
    San Diego at Oakland
    SD 35-24
    +11
    +7
    San Diego
    4
    Washington at Dallas
    DAL 31-20
    -11
    -11.5
    Washington
    .5
    Green Bay at Tampa Bay
    TB 21-20
    -1
    -1
    0



    Play-By-Play Overlay Summary

    Using our exclusive Play-By-Play ratings we create a predicted score for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the actual line you can find games where there is a significant difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been underdogs with a 4+ point overlay.

    Match-up
    Predicted Score
    TMW
    Line
    Line
    (home)
    Pick
    Overlay
    Buffalo at St. Louis
    BUF 35-8
    +27
    +8
    Buffalo
    19
    Denver at Kansas City
    DEN 40-13
    +27
    +9.5
    Denver
    17.5
    San Francisco at New Orleans
    SF 30-19
    +11
    -6
    San Francisco
    17
    Minnesota at Tennessee
    TEN 22-7
    -15
    -3
    Tennessee
    12
    Baltimore at Pittsburgh
    BAL 14-9
    +5
    -7
    Baltimore
    12
    Atlanta at Carolina
    ATL 20-17
    +3
    -7
    Atlanta
    10
    Philadelphia at Chicago
    PHI 25-14
    +11
    +3
    Philadelphia
    8
    Arizona at N.Y. Jets
    ARI 23-20
    +3
    -3
    Arizona
    6
    Houston at Jacksonville
    JAX 26-13
    -13
    -7.5
    Jacksonville
    5.5
    San Diego at Oakland
    SD 28-25
    +3
    +7
    Oakland
    4
    Cleveland at Cincinnati
    CIN 21-14
    -7
    -3.5
    Cincinnati
    3.5
    Washington at Dallas
    DAL 28-19
    -9
    -11.5
    Washington
    2.5
    Green Bay at Tampa Bay
    TB 18-17
    -1
    -1
    0