3rd Down Contrarian
This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using
the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.
For the full research article see: Third Down Conversions: up is down
53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
| 61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees |
| 59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees |
48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
* 3rd Down diff 6%+
NFL Week 4 , 2008
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away
3rd% |
Home
3rd% |
DC
Pick |
DC
Diff |
DC/TO
Pick |
DC/TO
Diff |
3rd Down
Pick |
Diff |
| Buffalo at St. Louis |
+8 |
+24% |
-33% |
BUF |
19.0 |
BUF |
11.0 |
St. Louis |
57% |
| Washington at Dallas |
-11.5 |
-15% |
+23% |
WAS |
0.5 |
DAL |
30.5 |
Washington |
38% |
| San Diego at Oakland |
+7 |
+25% |
-11% |
SD |
4.0 |
OAK |
1.0 |
Oakland |
36% |
| Baltimore at Pittsburgh |
-7 |
+22% |
-10% |
BAL |
12.0 |
BAL |
22.0 |
Pittsburgh |
32% |
| Arizona at N.Y. Jets |
-3 |
+13% |
-10% |
ARI |
18.0 |
NYJ |
4.0 |
N.Y. Jets |
23% |
| Philadelphia at Chicago |
+3 |
+27% |
+10% |
PHI |
8.0 |
PHI |
11.0 |
Chicago |
17% |
| Houston at Jacksonville |
-7.5 |
-23% |
-7% |
JAX |
7.5 |
HOU |
2.5 |
Houston |
16% |
| Denver at Kansas City |
+9.5 |
+5% |
-8% |
DEN |
15.5 |
DEN |
10.5 |
Kansas City |
13% |
| San Francisco at New Orleans |
-6 |
+2% |
+11% |
SF |
9.0 |
SF |
5.0 |
San Francisco |
9% |
| Atlanta at Carolina |
-7 |
-2% |
-9% |
ATL |
12.0 |
ATL |
4.0 |
Carolina |
7% |
| Cleveland at Cincinnati |
-3.5 |
-3% |
-9% |
CIN |
5.5 |
CIN |
2.5 |
Cincinnati |
6% |
| Minnesota at Tennessee |
-3 |
+1% |
+4% |
TEN |
8.0 |
TEN |
2.0 |
Minnesota |
3% |
| Green Bay at Tampa Bay |
-1 |
+0% |
+0% |
|
0.0 |
TB |
10.0 |
|
0% |
|
